Software defined vehicles: no better than a smartphone?

[Rade]

I'd love to have my R1T long enough to register it as an antique.

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[electruck]

wanna bet?
Just like phones, they’ll be obligated to maintain vehicle liability for “public safety”. This is already being discussed in the same political discussions about purported national security risks of allowing Chinese cars in America. It may be protectionism and bluster, but cars have already been hacked and the day will come when somebody in Washington decides that having 20 million autonomous cars on the road…. Somebody will be responsible to assure their security. That will go far beyond the 3 years/30,000 of old.

this is the technology centric world we live in. stop lights, internet routers, every connected device in the IoT, municipal water supplies, the electric grid (including generation and distribution), and the list goes on and on... all these things can be hacked and weaponized. there is an argument regarding technology as a whole and our ever increasing dependence but there is nothing special about software defined cars in that regard.

 

[Zathras]

The biggest problem is repairability out beyond 10 years. Companies can make it impossible to repair hardware because of their proprietary software, and then when they stop offering repairs you're SOL. Think of how R1 throws an error code when you replace the 12V battery yourself. Imagine how R1 software will react if there's an issue with the suspension and you replace it yourself. I would love to keep my R1S for decades but this is what concerns me.

What about the laws on maintaining parts for repairs for a specified period after sales? Has to apply to EVs just the same as ICE vehicle manufacturers.

 

[ENVErider]

I have a reservation for the new Rivian R2. And, this question has been in the back of my mind. More specifically, how well will this car hold up its value proposition over the next 10 years.

like one of the people interviewed in this article, I had a Mazda Miata NA and later an NB. All held their value proposition for over 10 years. I currently have a 2015 Subaru Outback and a 2015 Volkswagen E-Golf. The latter one is a bit long in the tooth but still works well for my husband‘s commute into the office and back and for much of our travel around our home. The Outback’s features and technologies are holding up much better across the years.

I know I could easily understand Rivian’s spokesperson to be saying that their cars will remain software current for 7 to 10 years, and software safety and security supported beyond that. Do you buy that inference?

If so, why so? And if not, why not?

I watched the same video; the title is misleading and really didn't add value or increase my knowledge in any way. I would hope that anyone in the US who has owned many PCs knows that Microsoft eventually stops supporting a certain version of Windows (typically 5-10 years), but that computer doesn't stop doing what it did after that last update; it will continue to do the same things at the same speed (ignoring increasing demands from the internet and updated software).

One of the speakers points out the main takeaway: if you didn't have software-based updates, your vehicle progression is essentially frozen after you drive it off the lot, and yet it will continue to drive just fine for decades. Your Rivian will keep driving just fine after its last update, whenever that occurs.

The only real downside of the Rivian/Tesla/Lucid OS-based approach are the self-service aspects.

 

[CrazyOne]

The vehicle won't move an inch without the key in close proximity. The most way to secure a phone, computer, or car, is with hardware keys. I'm not the least bit worried about my car getting away from me. I saw what happened when it went into "limp" mode because of a wheel sensor failure in one video, and they were sitll able to drive 50 mph. Are there compromises? Sure. Do ICE cars have equal compromises? Yep.

A quick search will show you many historic hacks on software defined vehicles, including Teslas. I will save the thread from a long list of them.

And those are what is publicly known and demonstrated.

 

[Mos Eisley]

this is the technology centric world we live in. stop lights, internet routers, every connected device in the IoT, municipal water supplies, the electric grid (including generation and distribution), and the list goes on and on... all these things can be hacked and weaponized. there is an argument regarding technology as a whole and our ever increasing dependence but there is nothing special about software defined cars in that regard.

You’re missing the point. Cars are BECOMING. The same as other IoT hardware THAT’S what is new for the auto industry. Used to be? Gig a ten year old Honda? Go to the parts store… the auto manufacturer has no ongoing costs on a ten year old car. Now they do- and some are going to fail or, like many teach bro startups, will think “we’re different, we’re breaking the old ways…” and then they get a cold splash of water when regulators come back and remind them of their obligations. The feds will give in when 200,000 customers if a $60,000 good get bricked by a hacker or worse… right now. The Tesla and Rivian folks see subscriptions as the norm for soft water as a service… their gonna feel an eventual anchor drag of maintaining multiple gens and iterations of their older platforms. It took governments to mandate longer service lives of phones, they’ll same will come to cars.

 

[Kaiju]

That's funny. I see tons of R1s on sale at pretty decent prices. Sure their value is less than Gen2, but they are hardly obsoleted. And the long-term health of the company is based on how people percieve their current vehicle's longevity. If people begin to think their car won't last 10-15 yeras wihtout major issues, their future is not goign to be promising.

The oldest R1s are only four years old and they're only starting to come out of warranty on mileage. That's not enough to be cut loose, but also keep in mind the last gen 1 has been sold for a couple years now and there's not actually very many of them in automotive terms. The wheels will keep turning once support drops out, but so many of its connected features and built-in apps that make them 'software defined vehicles' won't. That's the crux of it really. There will be a point where they're abandoned, the question is when that is. There's a few who think we're (the Gen 1 folks) on the maintenance mode path already.

There may be an expectation for a decade+ of software support, but that's probably wishful thinking. Once you get into vehicles that are 7-10 years old, are those second and third owners putting any money in Rivian's pockets? Is Rivian going to be selling used vehicles that are that old, or will it be entirely third parties who contribute nothing? The question is going to be what motivation Rivian will have to service those customers once the original owners are out of most of them. Are they going to do anything when they get punted off cellular networks? It'll happen long before the machine is beyond usefulness.

There will be a few that intend to hold onto them long term, but statistically that's rare among the general population of owners. Most owners will have them for a lease period or 3-5 years and then get something else. I don't think we have any illusions as to how many R1 owners are terrified of out of warranty repair costs. Rivian's favorites will be the ones that upgrade to new every 2-3 years and why wouldn't they be?

There's just one thing the company is afraid of and that's cratering resale value for those people. Personally I don't want to put my faith in their self-interest to keep resale values up because I'm fairly sure there will be a steep dropoff for R1 value once you get outside the warranties owing to their upkeep costs. Cheap German Car Syndrome. That means there's a point where there's not much to be gained by propping up their prices with software.

That's why I'd rather wish they made their software bulletproof and with offline fallbacks. At least that way when support drops out there's not as much to lose. The current design philosophy is driven at wowing the laptop-on-wheels people to spur sales, but it comes bundled with a perpetual obligation to spend money on the backend that's going to create a lot of customer grudges and bad PR when they have to come to a reckoning on it.

 

[slillie]

The software defined vehicles put car in limp mode or disable it if the parking sensor harness has a short. These things are going to be more like older mainstream German cars, only worse. The will be disposed around 10-15 year timeframe. They can get better, but they are far from it right now.

Another problem is security. I don't want an old smartphone, because it can be hacked easily. A phone from 2016, with no updates will be laughably easy to hack. These things, being connected to internet, will be vulnerable to attacks from around the world. The only way to use these will be to sever the Internet connection. Which can automatically happen when they kill 4G/5G in a decade or so.

Any electronic device can be hacked unless it is air-gapped.

 

[CrazyOne]

Any electronic device can be hacked unless it is air-gapped.

Not easily. Unless it has no security updates.

 

[McLovin]

Not easily. Unless it has no security updates.

Define “easily”. And I’ve got some bad news for you RE: security updates:

By the time the “security update” is released, the hole that they are fixing has already been exploited by the majority of hackers, and they’ve known about it for months.

 

[CrazyOne]

Define “easily”. And I’ve got some bad news for you RE: security updates:

By the time the “security update” is released, the hole that they are fixing has already been exploited by the majority of hackers, and they’ve known about it for months.

Great, turn off your phone and computer security updated. It will be fine.

 

[godfodder0901]

Any electronic device can be hacked unless it is air-gapped.

Oh, air-gapped networks can be hacked as well (just ask Iran) and in many cases it's easier since the primary security mechanism also makes timely updates and patching much more problematic.

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