Steady flow of new customers?

[Gsxr150]

I assume Rivian has a steady flow of new orders, one could assume? It seems like things have been quiet on that front.

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[SANZC02]

I assume Rivian has a steady flow of new orders, one could assume? It seems like things have been quiet on that front.

They should report that in thier 3rd quarter earnings report. What they have been doing is reporting net back orders which are minus any canceled or delivered vehicles so it seems like they are still getting quite a few new orders.

 

[milliemc]

I assume Rivian has a steady flow of new orders, one could assume? It seems like things have been quiet on that front.

Well, many like me--who is only a reservation so far. Not an order yet.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I assume Rivian has a steady flow of new orders, one could assume? It seems like things have been quiet on that front.

For Q2 they reported a net of 98k (or something close to that) orders, which accounts for both deliveries and cancellations. That's up from I think 90,000 net in May, so at least as of the end of June they were taking new reservations faster than they were able to fill new orders. I expect that to continue probably through the end of this year but it will be interesting to see when their ability to deliver vehicles catches up to the influx of new orders.

 

[fotoflux]

For Q2 they reported a net of 98k (or something close to that) orders, which accounts for both deliveries and cancellations. That's up from I think 90,000 net in May, so at least as of the end of June they were taking new reservations faster than they were able to fill new orders. I expect that to continue probably through the end of this year but it will be interesting to see when their ability to deliver vehicles catches up to the influx of new orders.

It's definitely slowed since late 2021. Not sure if that's due to the price increase, cancellations because of delays or cancellations because of cancelled trims and options. But it's not accelerating as market awareness increases, which is not really a good sign.

 

[Gsxr150]

It's definitely slowed since late 2021. Not sure if that's due to the price increase, cancellations because of delays or cancellations because of cancelled trims and options. But it's not accelerating as market awareness increases, which is not really a good sign.

Most people I talk to have no idea what a Rivian is... They are starting to pop up on the road and people will take notice. Maybe pull some Tahoe Escalade Jeep folks over...

 

[Gamma rays]

It's definitely slowed since late 2021. Not sure if that's due to the price increase, cancellations because of delays or cancellations because of cancelled trims and options. But it's not accelerating as market awareness increases, which is not really a good sign.

Not sure what you are exactly referring to, but as mentioned above, Rivian is still relatively unknown to many.

GR

 

[ERguy]

I think the long wait times for Rivians are preventing a lot of people from ordering.

Once the order to delivery time is down to 6 months or less, I think more people will consider Rivians.

It might take years. Until then, I wouldn't expect new orders to really take off. Most people aren't patient enough to wait for a Rivian or any similarly hard to find vehicle.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I think the long wait times for Rivians are preventing a lot of people from ordering.

Once the order to delivery time is down to 6 months or less, I think more people will consider Rivians.

It might take years. Until then, I wouldn't expect new orders to really take off. Most people aren't patient enough to wait for a Rivian or any similarly hard to find vehicle.

Yup. When I tell people how long I've been on the wait list for this truck they look at me like I sprouted a second head.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

The lack of Rivian Service Centers nationwide are a huge concern for many would-be customers. It becomes a real concern if service is more than 2 hours away from your home. For me, the closest now open is the Orlando Fl location 6 hours away. There is a Pensacola Fl location on the IPO Map Rivian displayed that is supposed to open by EOY2023 but we’ll see. Pensacola is 1.5 hours away.

 

[Budman]

Purely anecdotal, but a neighbor just canceled a Lightning order and placed a Rivian order after a test drive of my R1T.

 

[KiloV]

It seems that Rivian is receiving roughly 4,000 more orders per month at this point (they went from a net-90K to a net-98K, quarter over quarter, while delivering somewhere around 4k vehicles, I believe; so, 12K new orders during the quarter, or ~4K per month - all rough estimates). If Rivian continues to receive 4K new orders each month, they will sell out approximately 75% of their Normal, IL R1 annual production capacity (65K annually at present) each year in new pre-orders alone (4Kx12 months = 48K new orders annually, divided by 65K capacity = 73.8%). According to my math, if Rivian produces 25K vehicles this year and maximizes plant production at 65K next year and each year thereafter, while adding 48K new pre-orders per year, Rivian wouldn't be able to bring all orders to current until the first quarter of 2028. So, for the next few years Rivian's challenge won't be selling more vehicles; it'll be making enough to keep up with demand. Of course, demand for R1's could go up or down. The new R2 vehicles might be popular or unpopular. Rivian might make more R1's in GA. Plant expansions in Normal might increase ability to produce R1's. My crystal ball is broken, so who knows?

 

[moosetags]

The lack of Rivian Service Centers nationwide are a huge concern for many would-be customers. It becomes a real concern if service is more than 2 hours away from your home. For me, the closest now open is the Orlando Fl location 6 hours away. There is a Pensacola Fl location on the IPO Map Rivian displayed that is supposed to open by EOY2023 but we’ll see. Pensacola is 1.5 hours away.

You must be near us. We are in Walton County.

Brian

 

[Khaos]

It seems that Rivian is receiving roughly 4,000 more orders per month at this point (they went from a net-90K to a net-98K, quarter over quarter, while delivering somewhere around 4k vehicles, I believe; so, 12K new orders during the quarter, or ~4K per month - all rough estimates). If Rivian continues to receive 4K new orders each month, they will sell out approximately 75% of their Normal, IL R1 annual production capacity (65K annually at present) each year in new pre-orders alone (4Kx12 months = 48K new orders annually, divided by 65K capacity = 73.8%). According to my math, if Rivian produces 25K vehicles this year and maximizes plant production at 65K next year and each year thereafter, while adding 48K new pre-orders per year, Rivian wouldn't be able to bring all orders to current until the first quarter of 2028. So, for the next few years Rivian's challenge won't be selling more vehicles; it'll be making enough to keep up with demand. Of course, demand for R1's could go up or down. The new R2 vehicles might be popular or unpopular. Rivian might make more R1's in GA. Plant expansions in Normal might increase ability to produce R1's. My crystal ball is broken, so who knows?

I agree with your math and assumptions. I do agree that the R2 will be more popular. For some ungodly reason the North American market is obsessed with crossovers (I don't like them) and I think the R2 will be super popular. And although I hope they make R1s in the GA plant, I think they'll be focused primarily on R2s by then.

Do we know if there's more development opportunity/ability to expand Normal even further?

 

[Florida Panhandler]

You must be near us. We are in Walton County.

Brian

Yes, Walton County here too. I saw a white Rivian R1T last month at the VPS Airport cellphone lot but that has been the only one I’ve seen here. I alsoI saw a Lucid at the beginning of summer in Panama City Beach.

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