Steady flow of new customers?

[moosetags]

Yes, Walton County here too. I saw a white Rivian R1T last month at the VPS Airport cellphone lot but that has been the only one I’ve seen here. I alsoI saw a Lucid at the beginning of summer in Panama City Beach.

You are one up on us. The only Rivians that we have ever seen in person were at a Rivian Expo in Denver in 2019. We see lots of Teslas along 30A, but that's about it for EV's around here. We are along 30A near Goatfeathers.

Brian

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[KiloV]

I agree with your math and assumptions. I do agree that the R2 will be more popular. For some ungodly reason the North American market is obsessed with crossovers (I don't like them) and I think the R2 will be super popular. And although I hope they make R1s in the GA plant, I think they'll be focused primarily on R2s by then.

Do we know if there's more development opportunity/ability to expand Normal even further?

Rivian said they were expanding capacity of the Normal plant from 150K to 200K. Don't know what the breakdown will be between R1's and EDV's (currently 65K/85K). It would be cool if they split it 100K/100K. I've also heard that they're planning to build batteries and motors in the Normal plant. Does building the powertrain components in-house mean that they won't be able to expand vehicle production? No idea.

 

[mwexler2]

It's definitely slowed since late 2021. Not sure if that's due to the price increase, cancellations because of delays or cancellations because of cancelled trims and options. But it's not accelerating as market awareness increases, which is not really a good sign.

Note that part of it is deliveries. The more they deliver, the less are waiting.

 

[mini2nut]

Purely anecdotal, but a neighbor just canceled a Lightning order and placed a Rivian order after a test drive of my R1T.

The 2023 Pro and XLT Lightning models have met their build quota and are unavailable to order. If a buyer is dead set on one of these two models they will need to wait until next year and order a 2024. You can only order a Lariat or Platinum Lightning now.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

It seems that Rivian is receiving roughly 4,000 more orders per month at this point (they went from a net-90K to a net-98K, quarter over quarter, while delivering somewhere around 4k vehicles, I believe; so, 12K new orders during the quarter, or ~4K per month - all rough estimates). If Rivian continues to receive 4K new orders each month, they will sell out approximately 75% of their Normal, IL R1 annual production capacity (65K annually at present) each year in new pre-orders alone (4Kx12 months = 48K new orders annually, divided by 65K capacity = 73.8%). According to my math, if Rivian produces 25K vehicles this year and maximizes plant production at 65K next year and each year thereafter, while adding 48K new pre-orders per year, Rivian wouldn't be able to bring all orders to current until the first quarter of 2028. So, for the next few years Rivian's challenge won't be selling more vehicles; it'll be making enough to keep up with demand. Of course, demand for R1's could go up or down. The new R2 vehicles might be popular or unpopular. Rivian might make more R1's in GA. Plant expansions in Normal might increase ability to produce R1's. My crystal ball is broken, so who knows?

They are currently expanding Normal to get up to 200k per year but I don't think they have details on what the new split will be. Assuming it's a 50/50 gain that gets them up to 80k R1 per year. I think it's also safe to assume the R2 will cannibalize a chunk of R1 orders.

Regardless, being delivery constrained past 2025 is a good way to stay in business.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

You are one up on us. The only Rivians that we have ever seen in person were at a Rivian Expo in Denver in 2019. We see lots of Teslas along 30A, but that's about it for EV's around here. We are along 30A near Goatfeathers.

Brian

Speak of the devil, I just saw another R1T tonight at around 6pm on 98 and 393, a Launch Green one. …I am near Gulf Place btw.

 

[moosetags]

Speak of the devil, I just saw another R1T tonight at around 6pm on 98 and 393, a Launch Green one. …I am near Gulf Place btw.

You are another one up on us. You are really close to us. We are in Old Florida Beach, south of Goatfeathers.

Brian

 

[Attesan997]

The lack of Rivian Service Centers nationwide are a huge concern for many would-be customers. It becomes a real concern if service is more than 2 hours away from your home. For me, the closest now open is the Orlando Fl location 6 hours away. There is a Pensacola Fl location on the IPO Map Rivian displayed that is supposed to open by EOY2023 but we’ll see. Pensacola is 1.5 hours away.

I have a "closer" Rivian service center at about 60 mins , well closer with no commuter traffic and/or inclement weather. And while it's better only having to burn about half a day to get there and back its still a bit of a messy process that could be improved while a vehicle is there. For example in my case Rivian needed a new front camera to replace the one my truck was built with. It looked terrible at delivery and my advisor said it was the worst one she's ever seen. So no problem it will be replaced, except the part still hasn't arrived as of yesterday from Normal. So my truck is hanging out in the service center waiting for a delivery by Monday. And my service advisor is basically all shrugs giving any sort of assurance because its of course not up to him its up to whenever UPS delivers it. I guess its too much to ask right now to carry 5-10 of the parts they need to swap out on hand versus doing a diagnosis first and then waiting a few days for parts to ship.

 

[virgnia_rivian]

I think, as a few others have mentioned, there is still a steady flow of new reservations coming in. Rivian is focused on ironing out its supply chain and ramping production. This will help accelerate sales further.

Also, keep in mind, fleet is a big part of their business, as it is for most U.S. automakers. This part of the business also has a recurring revenue stream from their fleet management system. The big question everyone should be asking is who is their next big fleet customer. The deal they just made with Mercedes for Europe is a great step in the right direction.

Remember, it took Tesla years to become more than a niche product. Rivian, if they can solve the supply chain, could produce 100k+ R1 vehicles next year. That would severely shorten the lead time for new reservations to a matter of months.

There are many signs the factory ramp rate has increased significantly since Q1.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

You are another one up on us. You are really close to us. We are in Old Florida Beach, south of Goatfeathers.

Brian

Ok very cool, when one of us gets delivery first (R1S here) we can maybe check it out.

 

[moosetags]

Ok very cool, when one of us gets delivery first (R1S here) we can maybe check it out.

That sounds good. Keep in touch.

Brian

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