I 100% agree. It will be Tri motors first then dual then single. Volume is important but margin is even more important at this point for Rivian. Higer trim levels have higher margin %.
I don't think the market will support that. You're implying here that there is demand for over 300,000 units of the R2 at $60k+, which I don't think to be the case. They already have a low volume high ASP vehicle in the R1S, they don't need a second one.
The "$45k" starting price, if they ever make that one will be ways away and likely a single motor smallest battery. They will start with the lower volume / higher price builds as the way to work out the kinks in manufacturing, Personally, multiple pack sizes and tri motor should exist. LFP for Single and Dual, NMC for for Dual performance and leave it at that.
No, Rivian last announced they had over 100k reservations. Lets assume 25% are people who want a long range, low cost single motor and 25% are the tri motor crazy spec. That latter 25% will be served 1st, then the 50% in the middle before that final 25%
They will probably make 50-75k in 2026 depending on when they start. I expect them to max their production rate in 2027. That means by the end of 2027 they will have made approximately 200,000 R2. You stated that there won't be any "affordable" R2 until at least 2028, which implies that they will have sufficient demand to sell 200,000+ of the high ASP version. That would certainly be great for Rivian, but I don't expect the market to support it.
Again, I am not expecting them to hit production targets. They will deliver very few in H2 2026 to say they hit their their goal, but this will be a few units, with the bulk of what they are capable will be delivered in Q4 2026 to rally wall street. 2027 will be working thru the preorders and factory tweaks. At full utilization the plant is targeting 150K units per year, but the factory is not going to be able to do that in the first year - 18 months. I expect mid 2028 is when they could possibly hit those production targets, which is when they leverage that utilization to make the lower tier R2 at profit.
You are making a fatal error in your understanding of product pricing and margin. High ASP on the R1 does not = higher margin since the BOM to make an R1 is significantly higher than the R2. A high ASP on the R2 will generate more Margin $ and higher %margin. This is what Rivian is being judged on not volume....
I agree
Yeah, this is usually how automakers operate. I’d imagine the tri-motor will be first. It’ll be cheaper than a base model R1T, so that’ll drive sales alone. They’ll release the dual-motor variant at the same time or later that year. And if they’re making a single-motor the year after that.
I think in a recent interview RJ said the R2 is 95% sourced.
You and I have very different expectations for production of the R2. Unless one of us has a flux capacitor strapped to our R1 then we'll just have to wait and see.
I assure you that I understand pricing and margin. I expect Rivian to focus on the best combination of ASP and volume instead of selling a higher ASP version at lower volume but that's just like my opinion, man.
My Mr. Fusion is not working right now, cuz if it was I would bring myself to the way future and not return
Are you sure? You might not like what you find that far in the future.My Mr. Fusion is not working right now, cuz if it was I would bring myself to the way future and not return
