We will know our R2 delivery by the end of June.

[rfkxyz]

I’ll take that bet, I think it will be easily into Q1’27, if not Q2.. let the GAMES BEGIN!

That would be quite a backtrack if we get much past Jan and other stuff hasn’t launched yet. We’ll see.

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[TheWebMedic]

This is how it was explained to me by a Rivian rep at the Block party, and the Rivian AI on the site also describes it this way... So if somebody gets an R1 today and then reserves an R2, they bump my 3/7/24 reservation. I figure I'm one of the first in line for all the people without an R1 (got a res within the first 15 minutes of the reveal), but I have no idea where that actually puts me since a lot of people who reserved an R2 already have an R1.
And I agree about the feeling of disenfranchisement... Although I'd feel a little better if they gave people who are bumped free color choices (I realize that would never happen, but it's nice to dream).

I predict that you will have an R2 by late July.

 

[tivoboy]

That would be quite a backtrack if we get much past Jan and other stuff hasn’t launched yet. We’ll see.

I think there will be some overlap, possibly at least one full quarter.

 

[Jeremy3292]

It seems likely now the LE will be available til EOY based on the fact that they said coastal cloud will be available on LE and that says “late 2026” on their website. That also makes it likely the premium trim will also be available at the same time as the LE due to the same “late 2026” wording. The LE will then phase out in early 2027 and revert back to just the performance trim.

 

[Viking80]

I figure I'm one of the first in line for all the people without an R1 (got a res within the first 15 minutes of the reveal)

One of the first? There are tons of people that reserved within the first few minutes. If you waited 15 there are probably 5-10k ahead of you. Maybe I’m wrong.

 

[Eric9610]

Counterpoint:

Early R2s are the most likely to suffer teething problems, and Rivian's service experience can be less than excellent. Far better to put those potentially troublesome early R2s in the hands of existing owners whose expectations are already set, and whose loyalty to Rivian is already established. Those households are much more likely to remain ambassadors for the brand through a rocky start vs. a net-new household.

I would disagree with this in mass production. The best cars to get at any new launch are cars 1-5k, the worst cars are 5k-15k, then back to ok cars. The first 5k will be meticulously inspected to ensure the line is working properly. The 5-15k will be the line running a full speed, new quality issues will arise. Then those will get sorted 15k+. This is how it has worked for almost every high volume product.

 

[racekarl]

I would disagree with this in mass production. The best cars to get at any new launch are cars 1-5k, the worst cars are 5k-15k, then back to ok cars. The first 5k will be meticulously inspected to ensure the line is working properly. The 5-15k will be the line running a full speed, new quality issues will arise. Then those will get sorted 15k+. This is how it has worked for almost every high volume product.

I feel like you're making my point rather than contradicting it. It's that 5-15k batch that are most likely to go to existing R1 owners if our conjecture is correct. The first ~2k or so are employee purchases, with some others likely earmarked for demo drives, etc.

 

[theMIK9]

I just had a chat with Rivian AI, and got this answer.
What are the odds of me getting a Rivian R2 launch edition before October 2026?

Here’s what we know: R2 deliveries in the US start with the Performance trim (including the Launch Package) in spring 2026, with Premium trims following in late 2026. If you’re hoping to get a Launch Edition before October 2026, your odds depend on a few things—mainly your reservation date, your delivery location, and whether you’re already a Rivian R1 owner (since R1 owners get priority for early deliveries).
Rivian hasn’t published reservation numbers or individual delivery estimates yet, but if you already have a reservation and you’re not an R1 owner, you’ll be in line after those with priority. By the end of June, you’ll be able to see your estimated order window in your Rivian account, and order invites will go out in batches.
If you want to keep tabs on your place in line or make a reservation, you can do that at the R2 reservation page.
If you’d like to talk through your specific situation—like your reservation date or R1 ownership status—let me know!

Are you sure?
I reserved on 4/1/2024 and am still waiting. With gas prices and a 62-mile commute, I'm thinking of buying an EV. Did all the analysis on which to buy. My wife is ok with buying whatever EV as long as it's not Tesla because she didn't like the quality of the material on the dashboard and doors.

On the other hand, I only like Rivian, Volvo EX60, BMW i3 and Polestar 4. Volvo and BMW won't make deliveries until second half of 2027 and Polestar 4 has some well-known software issues. Very confused. Can someone share their side to help me decide?

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I think none of us know at this point, and I doubt the AI has been informed about company internal plans.

that said. Marketing 101 would dictate, Rivian should endeavor to some extent to put MORE Rivians into MORE HOUSEHOLDS than they currently serve and not just adding another or swapping another for existing HOUSEHOLD. Every new household becomes a new ambassador of the brand. Extending exposure beyond the already dulled novelty from an existing household.

Logistically and operationally, it’s also not optimal since as I said above I can only imagine that >90% of probably the first 20-30K most likely will only head WEST to CA and west coast vs. pollination the other lower 48.

Broaden the base so to speak.

That’s a fair point, but Rivian knows that they have a super loyal fan base. Just look at the Consumer Reports surveys.

“Consumer Reports found that Rivian owners reported being among the most satisfied with their vehicles, praising the driving experience, features, and overall enjoyment. However, Rivian vehicles were also rated among the least reliable due to frequent issues with build quality, electronics, and minor mechanical problems.”

It’s going to be employees first, then people who are already existing Rivian customers, then people who are in proximity to the factory or a service center, and then everyone else. Configuration plays a part as well.

 

[NinjaWrap]

One of the first? There are tons of people that reserved within the first few minutes. If you waited 15 there are probably 5-10k ahead of you. Maybe I’m wrong.

Having been through this type of thing with two Tesla models now, the "place in line" probably isn't quite as important as you think. I mean, day one vs someone who reserved a few days later? Probably makes a difference. But first 15 minutes vs 30 minutes? Probably won't matter.

Of those 10k people that might technically be ahead, how many are willing and ready to order a launch edition on day one? Maybe they wanted premium or standard, or wanted coastal interior, or borealis paint, or lidar, or maybe they are in a lease that doesn't end until later this year.

 

[Yamazaki]

One of the first? There are tons of people that reserved within the first few minutes. If you waited 15 there are probably 5-10k ahead of you. Maybe I’m wrong.

The actual "place in line" wasn't really important to the point I was trying to make.The point was that it didn't matter how early I made a reservation because every R1 owner bumps me (and all other non-R1 owners) back in line.

Having been through this type of thing with two Tesla models now, the "place in line" probably isn't quite as important as you think. I mean, day one vs someone who reserved a few days later? Probably makes a difference. But first 15 minutes vs 30 minutes? Probably won't matter.

Of those 10k people that might technically be ahead, how many are willing and ready to order a launch edition on day one? Maybe they wanted premium or standard, or wanted coastal interior, or borealis paint, or lidar, or maybe they are in a lease that doesn't end until later this year.

I do appreciate the insight, but unless Tesla did the "priority" adjustment that Rivian is doing, it doesn't really help the non-R1 owners figure out where they fall. (I don't know if Tesla did that or not, so I am curious to know if they did)

I predict that you will have an R2 by late July.

I would be the first to celebrate your accuracy if true... but I am expecting a longer wait. I figure (based on feelings alone) that I'll have it before October.



What would be helpful to know (and if anyone does know, I'm paying attention) is how many R1 owners there are and how many of those made a reservation and want a Launch Edition R2. Then it would be easier to make an (admittedly rough) estimate to where the rest of us fall.

 

[NinjaWrap]

I do appreciate the insight, but unless Tesla did the "priority" adjustment that Rivian is doing, it doesn't really help the non-R1 owners figure out where they fall. (I don't know if Tesla did that or not, so I am curious to know if they did)

Tesla let existing owners order first even though they were not first in line for Model 3. Then early reservations. But in the case of Model 3 and Cybertruck we are talking over 100k reservations first day and still just a couple months between me as one of the first 20k reservations and a friend who reserved at the 200K+ reservations mark. Once they got through the existing orders and the California orders it didn’t make much difference.

I am guessing my 27 minutes in R2 reservation won’t be far behind a first minute reservation. Guess we’ll know in about a month!

 

[mcdaniken]

IMHO - Rivian’s best guess for uptake on reservations is this

Not true at all. I want the standard, not the launch. Has nothing to do with uptake rate.

 

[Zathras]

I am very curious as to how Rivian is going to provide every reservation holder with an estimated order timeline before the end of June that has any reasonable accuracy. Seems to me that predicting the actual reservation conversion rate would be pretty challenging without at least a couple months' worth of observation of such. Not to mention the larger distortions that will be caused by people waiting for RAP1/LIDAR or $45K builds.

I suppose it could be they are going to be able to get accurate numbers based on how many orders are in the pipeline. R1 owners are hardly going to be priority if they wait until December to put their order in. You get priority based on when you actually order I would guess.

So they know the order the versions are coming out, performance first, etc., and they know how many orders are in, and how many they're likely to produce based on the hard numbers as they come in. So I suspect for someone putting an order in on day one of availability will get their date set. If an R1 owner comes in after that, they no doubt would have to wait in an R1-owner queue, but they don't get to push back people who already have orders?

I'm betting once they commit to selling you an R2, nobody is going to push you back no matter who they are as long as you'd paid whatever deposit they require. Did they do deposits on R1 orders at the start?

 

[Eric9610]

I suppose it could be they are going to be able to get accurate numbers based on how many orders are in the pipeline. R1 owners are hardly going to be priority if they wait until December to put their order in. You get priority based on when you actually order I would guess.

So they know the order the versions are coming out, performance first, etc., and they know how many orders are in, and how many they're likely to produce based on the hard numbers as they come in. So I suspect for someone putting an order in on day one of availability will get their date set. If an R1 owner comes in after that, they no doubt would have to wait in an R1-owner queue, but they don't get to push back people who already have orders?

I'm betting once they commit to selling you an R2, nobody is going to push you back no matter who they are as long as you'd paid whatever deposit they require. Did they do deposits on R1 orders at the start?

Once the reservation turns to a deposit you are locked in. Usually within a week of confirmation your vin shows up in the app. Yes, the R1 had a much larger reservation / deposit requirement.

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