Rivian Q4 FY2021 Earnings Call 3-10-22

[LoneStar]

Very surprised the investment/banking reps asking the questions let Rivian "side-step" a very astute question about how the backtrack on pricing escalation affected their PREVIOUSLY planned profit trajectory. Given the goal of 25k this year and effectively a reiteration of last year's objective to delivery pre-IPO orders by end of next year, that means the first two-plus years of Rivian output is entirely based on legacy pricing. That begs the question - that wasn't answered at all - how that impacted the profitability forecasting during the last call. Pretty much they avoided the scenario that is suspected: they knew a price hike was pending - did they make claims and forward-looking projections based on that. Cannot fathom how they wouldn't have assumed higher pricing would "stick." So what's ramification on the pricing reversal? They really got themselves off-the-hook on that one and it surprised me the money-people let them.

After-hours stock trading (so far) doesn't seem to be enamored with call disclosures

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[Craigins]

This place ain't so dark....

found the light mode user.

 

[RWerksman]

Hahahahahaha I'm dying ? You summed it up better than I could.

And with that, farewell Rivian Forums. See you again in (hopefully) 9 months when I get my truck.

I'm just saying that if I ran Rivian we would have all transitioned past the physical plane of existence to a dimension of pure energy and thought.


That, and not providing a weekly or daily assembly rate is pretty bullshit.

 

[KingTodd]

I’m not an expert, I’m just making my armchair analysis like anyone else on this forum. I have just heard RJ in the past say that chip production wouldn’t be as great of constraint as he is saying now.

I would have thought the whole point of Ford partnering with them, as well as Amazon, was to get better relations set up with suppliers so they could get priority in the parts they needed years ago. But like I said I don’t know anything, I’m not trying to start anything on here. I want them to succeed

It doesn't matter if you setup contracts years in advance for this type of situation. There is a typcial clause called Force Majuere in a contract which means that you can be alleviated of your contractual obligations when you are impacted by things beyond your control...for example, an earth quake levels your production plant. This type of situation is happening across many industries, and COVID has much to do with it as it shut down many sites, many logistical lanes (espeically vessels for shipping) and much of hte work force got up and left.
Think of it this way if nothing else makes sense....how long ago did you order your Rivian....has it done you any good (as in there is a Rivian in your garage)? Just setting up the contract isn't enough in this environment, and it is going to be this way for a few more years (IMO).

 

[AllInev]

Does anyone remember the earliest/first published preorder numbers? And when was it published?

Was it 35k back in Sept 2021?

 

[moosehead]

That, and not providing a weekly or daily assembly rate is pretty bullshit.

The answer must have been so bad that they literally were not going to answer it.
Instead pleaded the Fifth.

Meh: "we are confident in hitting 55k unit deliveries by end of 2023" even when taking into consideration supply chain constipation.

 

[dixosw]

It really amazing how many folks on here are experts in supply chain logistics, software development, large scale manufacturing, AND managing a hyper-growth startup while still holding primary jobs in completely unrelated field.

If only they were running Rivian, all of us would have had our trucks by now.

To be fair, I'm also an expert on infectious diseases and Eastern European politics. But I don't like to brag.

 

[mike22co]

Does anyone remember the earliest/first published preorder numbers? And when was it published?

Was it 35k back in Sept 2021?

I have it as:

48,000 pre-orders by Sept 30, 2021​

​

Based on their other statements, they have built 1410 vehicles in 2022, up until March 8th. That is 21 per day and slightly higher if you exclude Sundays.

 

[moosehead]

Call transcript, will get a better link later that will have longer shelf life.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) CEO RJ Scaringe on Q3 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

 

[KingTodd]

I'm just saying that if I ran Rivian we would have all transitioned past the physical plane of existence to a dimension of pure energy and thought.


That, and not providing a weekly or daily assembly rate is pretty bullshit.

Yeah, but you would have raised the prices and not reversed it so F that pure energy and thought stuff

 

[Guy]

I have it as:

48,000 pre-orders by Sept 30, 2021​

​

Based on their other statements, they have built 1410 vehicles in 2022, up until March 8th. That is 21 per day and slightly higher if you exclude Sundays.

I think 55K by end of October and then 71K by end of 2021.

 

[kanundrum]

Really confused about LFP batteries and 800v architecture. How long are we looking at for this?

 

[Cosmacelf]

One of the analysts tried hard to tell RJ that their prices were still too low. RJ completely missed the point, thought the guy was saying the opposite. And later in the call, the analyst's point was backed up by the Rivian marketing guy when he said they had more or less the same number of new orders coming in after the price increase than they had before the price increase.

Given they have two years of sales in the bag, I agree with the analyst and that Rivian is continuing to leave a lot of money on the table.

Just today, Tesla raised prices on their cheapest cars by $1K. Tesla had more price changes last year than could easily be counted.

Rivian's price snaffu, now that they reversed their increase, is going to cost them about $1B in forgone revenue. That will negatively impact all of 2022 and 2023 quarterly reports. And then after they've shipped about 55,000 R1 vehicles, bang, they'll have a huge margin lift.

Hopefully Rivian will continue raising prices through this year and the next (and telling people ahead of time of the impending price increases!), and not fall asleep again. I mean, even right now they aren't in a great position in that any new orders they take in will have pricing set now for a car to be manufactured 2 years from now - what the heck will pricing be like then?

 

[hilld]

“More than half asked to be reinstated“ so they went from 50% cancellation to 25%? Still not good

So doing the math here, 50% cancellation is 35k, out of those 50% reversed, so that is 17,500 cancellations, guess I moved that many spots up in line as I am a late 2021 order.

 

[Zoidz]

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