Is "Your Delivery Window is Unchanged" the new "s00n"?

[paariv]

A thought struck me today: we often comment that CS has confirmed that our delivery windows are unchanged since last year. But I don't think this is meaningful information to receive. I'm sure many of you are way ahead of me on this.

Here's why: I don't think I've seen anyone say that their official delivery window has changed since we got emails last year, with the possible exception of config changes (like dropping max pack, etc) and of course when Jan-Feb became March-April. Even OC *delivery windows* - which we know are going to be pushed out - are technically still unchanged, right?

I know some people have taken delivery of vehicles earlier than expected, and that some have generally discussed availability and timing of interior colors with guides. but I think that there have been no updates to the late 2021 forecast even for those people. To me this means that the cheerful CS confirmations we regularly get are pretty meaningless.

I don't think anyone's been putting too much stock in official Rivian dates given what we've seen over the last year, but if there's really nobody who's seen an official change to their delivery date in 2022, I think we can safely say it has as much meaning as "s00n".

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[lostpacket]

A thought struck me today: we often comment that CS has confirmed that our delivery windows are unchanged since last year. But I don't think this is meaningful information to receive. I'm sure many of you are way ahead of me on this.

Here's why: I don't think I've seen anyone say that their official delivery window has changed since we got emails last year, with the possible exception of config changes (like dropping max pack, etc) and of course when Jan-Feb became March-April. Even OC *delivery windows* - which we know are going to be pushed out - are technically still unchanged, right?

I know some people have taken delivery of vehicles earlier than expected, and that some have generally discussed availability and timing of interior colors with guides. but I think that there have been no updates to the late 2021 forecast even for those people. To me this means that the cheerful CS confirmations we regularly get are pretty meaningless.

I don't think anyone's been putting too much stock in official Rivian dates given what we've seen over the last year, but if there's really nobody who's seen an official change to their delivery date in 2022, I think we can safely say it has as much meaning as "s00n".

This has been my thinking as well but you put it into words that make actual sense.

I am guessing to CS, "delivery estimate window" is just a field in their CRM software and that's all they know.

Even the 2018 and 2019ers that switched from explore/max to adventure large probably didn't get the field changed, as they were just told "sometime in 2022" which is not a "new delivery estimate window".

Everyone 2020+ seems to just get some variation of "wait for the account tool"

 

[JEV]

I'm at the end of my delivery window and unless they move quickly tomorrow, it looks like it's going to slip into May. When I had the first call with my guide on March 10, he said it will move forward when they assign a VIN and it could happen quickly, but worst case it would be end of May. I have heard that others were given a 90 day window after the first guide contact as well.

Given the supply chain issues, I think that is prudent on their part, but it sucks for those of us waiting on delivery.

 

[EVTrucking]

I am thinking the email from Tony on Monday pretty much said that delivery window update (shuffling) would be reported in the next few weeks.

As folks make configuration changes the delivery windows will change. The 2022 projection for 15k R1s or 13,500 actual deliveries indicates that 84% of the current R1 pre orders will NOT be filled in 2022. No getting around that.

 

[emoore]

I am thinking the email from Tony on Monday pretty much said that delivery window update (shuffling) would be reported in the next few weeks.

As folks make configuration changes the delivery windows will change. The 2022 projection for 15k R1s or 13,500 actual deliveries indicates that 84% of the current R1 pre orders will NOT be filled in 2022. No getting around that.

I didn’t know the 15k for 2022 changed. I didn’t see that in the email.

 

[EVTrucking]

I didn’t know the 15k for 2022 changed. I didn’t see that in the email.

It has not changed. 3/31/2022 Rivian reported 2553 produced but only 1227 delivered. My estimate is 15k produced but only 13500 delivered.

Whom ever gets an R1 in 2022 will be a tiny minority of the pre order holders.

 

[emoore]

It has not changed. 3/31/2022 Rivian reported 2553 produced but only 1227 delivered. My estimate is 15k produced but only 13500 delivered.

Whom ever gets an R1 in 2022 will be a tiny minority of the pre order holders.

Ah ok that makes sense. I think they make closer to 20k this year but you’re right that 2023 is where the majority of pre orders get their Rivians.

 

[EVTrucking]

Ah ok that makes sense. I think they make closer to 20k this year but you’re right that 2023 is where the majority of pre orders get their Rivians.

I don’t think 2023 will be a high production year. Supply issues are not going away that quickly. Chip and battery factories take years to be productive. Global conditions do not look favorable for metals needed for batteries and for chips.

IMHO I think Rivian producing 15k in 2022 is optimistic. Rivian is doing a good job of controlling what they can control but there is a mountain of things completely out of their control.

Currently there is nothing in the news or Rivian’s public communications to indicate optimism.

 

[Davethadog]

One has to assume that they’re truing their models to understand what the conversion rate really is. I hope that will be reflected in a more accurate “reshuffle”

 

[EVTrucking]

One has to assume that they’re truing their models to understand what the conversion rate really is. I hope that will be reflected in a more accurate “reshuffle”

I agree. IMO the price hike then reversal will lead to a high conversion rate for folks with pre orders on or before 3/31/2022. In other words I don’t think the conversion rate will thin the herd all that much.

 

[Max]

I am at around 45K spot. That means even if they double the production in 23, my 23H1 spot will likely translate to 24H1. They should have had their delivery window feature up on the website by now. A year of delay may change the calculus for some.

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