? Estimated Delivery Date Window is LIVE! What’s Yours?! ?

[MTStuart]

omg.. so basically they canned orders outside a specific location. I'm 2 hours away from a service center. I'm honestly a bit livid not knowing this earlier.

I live in MT, been waiting more than three years, and just got told to go fly a kite. I wish I'd known the company would be too afraid to sell vehicles in Montana but strangely glad that someone thinks we're still "off the beaten track."

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[COdogman]

The possibility of Rivian making it official (internally) they will be delaying deliveries to those living farthest from service centers actually makes much more sense as a “change in build plan” than it having anything to do with prioritizing T over S. If they rearranged the queue based on geography alone it would probably affect close to half the delivery estimates.

That is still a shitty thing to do since they happily took preorders and deposits from people in all those places.

 

[crashmtb]

The possibility of Rivian making it official (internally) they will be delaying deliveries to those living farthest from service centers actually makes much more sense as a “change in build plan” than it having anything to do with prioritizing T over S. If they rearranged the queue based on geography alone it would probably affect close to half the delivery estimates.

That is still a shitty thing to do since they happily took preorders and deposits from people in all those places.

I figure they just vacuumed up preorders with no regard to wether or not they could fulfill them(including aftersales servoce support)to have a fat order book to show off at IPO time. And the language in the preorder agreement bears this out too.

I presumed(wrongly!) they’d get around the service issue the same way Tesla has - with mobile service.
Here, Tesla had a ”ranger” come out quarterly or so, then later had someone here permanently but still only mobile service, and in the last year or two they’ve got a “permanent” location in that they rent a bay at the only body shop certified by them in town.

They should’ve restricted preorders to regions where they knew they’d have appropriate service infrastructure. Polestar did this.


I might not have preordered if I knew they were only selling to people in the “look we‘re launching a cross canada tour!“ cities of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal.

 

[0=====0]

The possibility of Rivian making it official (internally) they will be delaying deliveries to those living farthest from service centers actually makes much more sense as a “change in build plan” than it having anything to do with prioritizing T over S. If they rearranged the queue based on geography alone it would probably affect close to half the delivery estimates.

That is still a shitty thing to do since they happily took preorders and deposits from people in all those places.

@COdogman , they did not change the queue based on geography only.
Case and point, I am 15 minutes form the San Diego service center that has been open for the past one year. They have delivered R1S out of the service enter.

So location alone cannot be the driving factor. Location + config maybe? I have Forest Edge and Limestone, and Just week ago Tony said in AMA that FE goes into production in November. So after 1000+ BM delivery’s , and 2019 reservation, if they ramped the production to ~300 a week (approx R1T production rate in May-June), they could have delivered mine in December. It would have been close, but I would have at lease got a VIN before Jan.

I think they just dumped the R1S Ramp to make it to 25,000 total vehicles. Thats just my personal opinion.

Also, there is no way to know what change in queue based on location would "probably affect half the delivery estimates". Thats a pretty big assumption.

 

[jollyroger]

Feb 2022 reservation. This puts me at about a year which is what I was told at the Venice Hub. Actually kinda surprised, I was prepared for a later date.

 

[COdogman]

I figure they just vacuumed up preorders with no regard to wether or not they could fulfill them(including aftersales servoce support)to have a fat order book to show off at IPO time. And the language in the preorder agreement bears this out too.

I presumed(wrongly!) they’d get around the service issue the same way Tesla has - with mobile service.
Here, Tesla had a ”ranger” come out quarterly or so, then later had someone here permanently but still only mobile service, and in the last year or two they’ve got a “permanent” location in that they rent a bay at the only body shop certified by them in town.

They should’ve restricted preorders to regions where they knew they’d have appropriate service infrastructure. Polestar did this.


I might not have preordered if I knew they were only selling to people in the “look we‘re launching a cross canada tour!“ cities of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal.

I think your theory makes complete sense even if it wasn’t their original plan to do it like this. Either way they needed all those preorders to make the IPO successful (we’ve seen that before).

I also expected Rivian to utilize mobile service much more than they have as a way to cover areas without service centers yet. It’s puzzling to me why they wouldn’t do this. I really can’t think of a down side to it.

Regardless of the reasons they are doing what they are doing now, it’s disappointing the way they have handled this. Once again they failed to communicate effectively and created more frustration and left people wondering if or when they will get their vehicles. Polestar was smart to handle it the way they did. It’s the right thing to do.

I’m sorry you decided to cancel but I certainly understand why you would. It’s either that or just give up, sit back and wait for who knows how long until they can fulfill orders where you are.

 

[jollyroger]

I haven't read the whole thread, but looking at the last few comments. Do you think that maybe Rivian is trying to get as much of the truck version out before they are hit with more competition in that segment. Really the only other one (With it's own set of problems from what I understand) is the Ford Lightning.

However, Rivian could see the R1S as being competing with Tesla X, Audi Etron, VW ID4, Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro, and probably a couple of others I'm forgetting. I know these are not the same in capability range, size, utility, etc. But they are in the SUV segment, therefore may be getting pushed into that same catagory.

The Truck, well it was out first, and it's one of two that are technically available now.

No evidence of this, but something that I figured could be being discussed internally.

 

[COdogman]

@COdogman , they did not change the queue based on geography only.
Case and point, I am 15 minutes form the San Diego service center that has been open for the past one year. They have delivered R1S out of the service enter.

So location alone cannot be the driving factor. Location + config maybe? I have Forest Edge and Limestone, and Just week ago Tony said in AMA that FE goes into production in November. So after 1000+ BM delivery’s , and 2019 reservation, if they ramped the production to ~300 a week (approx R1T production rate in May-June), they could have delivered mine in December. It would have been close, but I would have at lease got a VIN before Jan.

I think they just dumped the R1S Ramp to make it to 25,000 total vehicles. Thats just my personal opinion.

Also, there is no way to know what change in queue based on location would "probably affect half the delivery estimates". Thats a pretty big assumption.

I didn’t say that is what they did. I said it makes makes as much or more sense than the T over S idea that also requires “big assumptions”. The only point I have tried to make here is that no one actually knows why Rivian has delayed some S orders and not others. There are also T orders that got delayed so what is the explanation for that? We also don’t know. As you suggest it’s probably multiple factors.

I truly do feel for anyone who got bad news with this update. I just feel like there is no point making it worse by letting our imagination run wild with conjecture. The truth is bad enough - Rivian screwed up again and failed many of their biggest fans. I hope the new updates are deliberately conservative and you get your S much earlier than they estimate. I hope everyone does.

 

[emoore]

I haven't read the whole thread, but looking at the last few comments. Do you think that maybe Rivian is trying to get as much of the truck version out before they are hit with more competition in that segment. Really the only other one (With it's own set of problems from what I understand) is the Ford Lightning.

However, Rivian could see the R1S as being competing with Tesla X, Audi Etron, VW ID4, Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro, and probably a couple of others I'm forgetting. I know these are not the same in capability range, size, utility, etc. But they are in the SUV segment, therefore may be getting pushed into that same catagory.

The Truck, well it was out first, and it's one of two that are technically available now.

No evidence of this, but something that I figured could be being discussed internally.

I dont see any of those being a competitor to the R1S except maybe the model X. The others are much smaller.

 

[jollyroger]

I dont see any of those being a competitor to the R1S except maybe the model X. The others are much smaller.

I agree that they are not really competing but putting out yet another SUV in a SUV rich EV market might be impacting the decision. Putting out more trucks in a truck poor market, then they get more public exposure to their product where there are only two choices right now.

I don't know maybe trying to find reason where there is none.

 

[SANZC02]

I agree that they are not really competing but putting out yet another SUV in a SUV rich EV market might be impacting the decision. Putting out more trucks in a truck poor market, then they get more public exposure to their product where there are only two choices right now.

I don't know maybe trying to find reason where there is none.

Think of all of the ICE SUVs out there and the number 1 seller is the Jeep GC which is pretty much the R1S….

The R1S for me is really the only EV out there to replace my Jeep GC. I would consider the Tahoe if GM comes up with an EV version but right now I do not see any options.

 

[the long way downunder]

Mercedes paying for targeted advertising that has found this thread.
Rivian should realize they've "chummed the water" …

Rivian, you're going to need a bigger boat.

 

[tusharparmar]

Again: If 18% (or more) did NOT have their window pushed back, then it clearly did not happen to everyone. Why? GUESSING they are all 2023 orders is just silly. As I keep saying, no one here actually knows.

That's about as "simple" as it gets.

In democracy 51% is considered majority however as per your logic 82% is not majority as well.

Seems like you are having some insights based on how strongly you are defending Rivian.

IMO, Rivian has failed as a company if majority of R1S pre order holders here are drawing negative conclusion about company's plans.

 

[paariv]

Again: If 18% (or more) did NOT have their window pushed back, then it clearly did not happen to everyone. Why? GUESSING they are all 2023 orders is just silly. As I keep saying, no one here actually knows.

That's about as "simple" as it gets.

This is an incredibly weak argument. Anyone expecting a car in the next 6 months got delayed. Literally everyone who has posted has said this! If you had a 2022 window and no VIN, you were told you’re waiting until 2023. There are no exceptions I’m aware of.

So based on this - again, you haven’t cited a single post on any forum where a 2022 R1S order got a new window that’s still in 2022 - it is accurate to say they delayed all R1S production.

The only people who maybe weren’t delayed (and I say maybe because these polls always have huge data problems) are people who are so far out from delivery that a pause in overall production didn’t impact their estimate.

So I still say the most accurate conclusion is that Rivian pushed out all R1S production. Maybe they think they can ramp quickly and make up the delay for far-off delivery estimates. But that doesn’t mean things are going well now.

 

[cheffie]

Can we stop with the weird conspiracy theories? “They want to hit 25,000” “They want less competition so trucks first!” “They want more full price orders!”

That’s all nonsense…Let’s look at what Rivian has actually stated and what we can see…

• Rivian said they are going to focus even more on producing “large” batches of specific configurations to increase efficiency.
• The R1T seems to have taken priority in the production schedule…according to the data being collected.
• R1S orders outnumber R1T orders by more than 2:1

To me, it’s logical then that Rivian would focus on getting out as many of the R1T orders as possible before switching its focus onto the R1S.

Even though that isn’t ideal for R1S pre-orders, doing it the other way around (R1S first) it would cause even more of a delay for early R1T order holders that haven’t received their truck.

Bottom line is, as we all know, there are a lot more factors involved that are determining delivery date than just one’s spot in the queue. And when they shift their production plans, some people move up and some get delayed.

There’s no problem with being upset that their order got pushed back, but don’t try to push some weird narrative about the situation because of it.

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