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Rob O

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People comparing Rivian at this stage with Tesla at this stage is like me asking why my kindergartener didn’t have a summer job and isn’t taking AP calc this Fall like the senior in high school down the road. It’s dumb. And even after all these years of production, quality at Tesla doesn’t reflect the massive head start they have over Rivian (it’s arguable worse on some models).
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Autolycus

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Except they never fix the earlier issues. 15 months after delivery my tonneau still doesn't work. Supposedly a class action suit is starting over it. Sign me up.
Sign you up for a class action suit that will result in Rivian offering to fix your tonneau when there's a viable solution, which they've already done, and some plaintiff attorneys getting a bunch of money just for "forcing" Rivian to do what they're already promising to do? Sounds like a great use of everybody's time and money.

People comparing Rivian at this stage with Tesla at this stage is like me asking why my kindergartener didn’t have a summer job and isn’t taking AP calc this Fall like the senior in high school down the road. It’s dumb. And even after all these years of production, quality at Tesla doesn’t reflect the massive head start they have over Rivian (it’s arguable worse on some models).
I think it's fair to compare Rivian's production ramp to Tesla's ramp on the Model S. Production of the Model S has never broken 20k for a quarter and only broke 15k twice in 2016. Tesla did deliver a little under 25k total S and X combined in 2nd quarter 2016, so maybe that's the right comparison? That's 4 years after production of the S started and a year after production of the X started. So Rivian needs to hit 25k quarterly deliveries by sometime in 2025 to match Tesla's pace? I think they're in good shape.
 

Count Orlok

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what was the total cyBeRtRuCK deliveries in Q3?
 

SANZC02

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(Curious: has anyone compared R1 growth solely to Model S/X growth history? The mass volumes of the Model 3 and Y throws off the comparison right now, right?)
Hard to compare including the Model X as they originally planned the X for 2014 but then pushed it out and was not delivered until last qtr 2015.

Comparing to the Model S Rivian is well ahead of the build/delivery of those Qtr over Qtr. If Rivian hits 50k this year they are 1 year ahead of Tesla who did not deliver 50k for the year until the end of their third full year of production.
 
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mkg3

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Quantity doesn’t matter.
Quality does matter.

so many annoying problems and not good service backup.
delays and poor resolution of the issues.
They both matter. The question is what is Rivian's warrantee costs as a percent of their sales.

At the current quality and issues, it is a major service cost drivers and an issue (to say the majority of the vehicles don't have issues is missing the point - stistcically, there are enough vehicles with issues and sampling is significant enough that, while it may not be technically over 50%, it is a large percentage of vehicles sold).
 

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Looks like their "leaked" predictions from earlier in the year of their deliveries hitting at least 60,000 may happen. Great news.
Their 2023 deliveries so far are:
Q1: 7,946
Q2: 12,640
Q3: 15,564

I doubt they’ll get close to 23,850 deliveries in Q4.
 

Rob O

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I think it's fair to compare Rivian's production ramp to Tesla's ramp on the Model S. Production of the Model S has never broken 20k for a quarter and only broke 15k twice in 2016. Tesla did deliver a little under 25k total S and X combined in 2nd quarter 2016, so maybe that's the right comparison? That's 4 years after production of the S started and a year after production of the X started. So Rivian needs to hit 25k quarterly deliveries by sometime in 2025 to match Tesla's pace? I think they're in good shape.
Agree with this completely ... Tesla Then vs Rivian now (i.e., apples to apples in terms of production ramp from the start, and profitability in the early stages). Too often, and already within this thread, people look at Rivian’s numbers — deliveries and financials — then compare with what Tesla is doing now.
 

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SANZC02

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Their 2023 deliveries so far are:
Q1: 7,946
Q2: 12,640
Q3: 15,564

I doubt they’ll get close to 23,850 deliveries in Q4.
The target was produce 52k, more deliveries would be great but need 12,309 to produce 52k this year. If they hit 15,850 deliveries this Qtr they will hit 52k deliveries, I think that is doable based on inventory. Curious how much of that inventory are EDVs.

They increased production in Q3 17.5% over Q2, if they stayed flat in Q4 compared to Q3 they produce 56k this year, if they could duplicate the 17.5% increase they produce 59k. It will be interesting to see where they end up, with the upcoming Q4 holidays, would not surprise me to see Q4 flat or a slight dip but still in great shape to hit the projected production numbers.

2023 production
Q1 9,395
Q2 13,992
Q3 16,304
 

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defcon888

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Except they never fix the earlier issues. 15 months after delivery my tonneau still doesn't work. Supposedly a class action suit is starting over it. Sign me up.
We got the manual one and while it isn't the greatest, it gets the job down. My brother-in-law has the R1T and took delivery a year ago and his works perfectly fine.

I would like the ability to get ours retrofitted with an electric one eventually or at least a retractable one.
 

dleepnw

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Quantity doesn’t matter.
Quality does matter.

so many annoying problems and not good service backup.
delays and poor resolution of the issues.
depends who you ask. i think its pretty clear if you ask wall street, only quantity matters. you dont have to look far to see the poster child for this - Tesla.
 

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The target was produce 52k, more deliveries would be great but need 12,309 to produce 52k this year. If they hit 15,850 deliveries this Qtr they will hit 52k deliveries, I think that is doable based on inventory. Curious how much of that inventory are EDVs.

They increased production in Q3 17.5% over Q2, if they stayed flat in Q4 compared to Q3 they produce 56k this year, if they could duplicate the 17.5% increase they produce 59k. It will be interesting to see where they end up, with the upcoming Q4 holidays, would not surprise me to see Q4 flat or a slight dip but still in great shape to hit the projected production numbers.

2023 production
Q1 9,395
Q2 13,992
Q3 16,304
When I saw at the beginning of the year Rivian issued that conservative guidance of 50K and wouldn't raise it, they eventually did to 52 but that's not much, I thought to myself finally someone over there is learning how to announce stuff without tanking the stock price. The street might not like conservative projections but they love exceeding projections and they hate not meeting them.

You're always better to underpromise and over deliver when it comes to performance expectations if you want to maintain a decent stock price. Which is why I have no idea how Tesla manages to keep their stock prices so high when Elon is constantly under delivering.
 

kiminbend

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Quantity doesn’t matter.
Quality does matter.

so many annoying problems and not good service backup.
delays and poor resolution of the issues.
I have had nothing but EXCELLENT service from our SC and SA.
 

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Expect them at the Q3 call to increase the yearly production target. Next year will 90k or more given the changes to the line coming up.
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