ThatOneGuy
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The unveiling of the R2/R3/R3X yesterday showcased an updated design language and some dramatic interior hardware/software changes that fundamentally change how the user interacts with and experiences their vehicle. Arguably, the best example of this is the steering wheel's unique buttons (scroll wheels?) that dynamically adjust in function and provide haptic feedback based on actions that the user wants to take (as seen in MKBHD's video). The similar design language on both vehicles seems to have been well received by Rivian enthusiasts and the general public, which inevitably prompts the question of if and when the new design language will make its way up to the R1 line. Multiple attendees and interviewers asked RJ and other Rivian employees yesterday, and while the answers on hardware were murky and ambiguous, answers on software were not: the R1 line will receive the same software as the R2/3, with the not-so-subtle implication that these changes would come soon™.
Given that the interior hardware changes are somewhat core to the software experience, and that the updated software has been confirmed as coming to the R1 line soon, I speculate that we may see some corresponding changes to the R1 line this year and that they will be introduced following the April factory shutdown. In no particular order, here are what could be considered a few subtle indicators:
Generally speaking, flagship vehicles are the first to showcase updated design language, new technologies, and a refined user experience, all of which eventually trickle down to cheaper models. Rivian has done the opposite. By unveiling two new lower cost vehicles that are arguably more refined than their ~4-6 year old flagship line (which was already feeling pressure from new competition), they've dated their only product offerings for the next 2 years and effectively shown potential customers that they should wait. They no doubt understood this two weeks ago when they outlined a slightly higher YoY production goal for 2024 and forecasted steady demand throughout, something that will be hard to achieve in light of these developments. Simply put, Rivian has to make their current products enticing enough to convince potential customers - those that could be persuaded to buy an R1S over an R2 - to buy now instead of waiting, otherwise R1 sales will continue to slow and they will not meet their production targets. They knew this when they briefed investors. Enter the mid-cycle refresh, a strategy employed by automakers for decades to keep demand up while their next product is in the works; no substantial changes, but enough to keep their vehicle fresh and relevant.
In addition to all of this, their plan to produce R2 at Normal enables them to critically centralize their supply chain(s) and concentrate their manufacturing talent in one place to efficiently manufacture R1 and eventually R2. Product alignment across both will allow them to share parts, gain efficiencies, negotiate more aggressively with suppliers for parts that touch all vehicles, etc., all of which will have an immediate and long term effect of reducing R1 production costs - their oft stated intent for the upcoming shutdown.
A strategy that checks all of the boxes - reduces CapEx, aligns product lines, keeps their existing sales up, prepares their next mass market vehicle(s) - is a winning one, and I think it entails refreshing the R1 line as soon as possible.
Given that the interior hardware changes are somewhat core to the software experience, and that the updated software has been confirmed as coming to the R1 line soon, I speculate that we may see some corresponding changes to the R1 line this year and that they will be introduced following the April factory shutdown. In no particular order, here are what could be considered a few subtle indicators:
- Yesterday, when asked whether the R1 line will be updated to align with the R2/3, RJ's body language - cheeky smiles - serves as a telltale sign, as it has multiple times in the past. Almost every time he was asked, he looked as if he could barely keep the secret about something that's just around the corner. Further, in the context of those interactions, he and other Rivian employees reiterated repeatedly that the R1T/S remained their flagship vehicles and that they'd be treated accordingly.
- Repeated mentions/leaks over the last few months of an upcoming "high end" interior trim for the R1 line.
- Speculation: this might be accompanied by a cheaper interior option (a la Explore trim) that borrows from some of the cost saving measures - materials, etc. - that are to be used in R2/R3.
- Previous announcement from Rivian that the quad-motor max pack made with their in-house motors would be returning to the configurator in 2024 - at times mentioned as targeted for the first half of the year. It was also touted as being an epic powerhouse performance truck - interestingly, they've just unveiled an epic performance rally car variant X of the R3, so....
- Previous acknowledgement by RJ in 2023 that the center armrest wireless charger's performance was poor, confirmation that it is being reengineered, and that he hoped to introduce the reengineered charger in the near future (2024). The implied message was that it had been in the reengineering process for a while, which suggests that it should be ready for introduction very soon.. like now.
- Previous comments on this forum and the Rivian subreddit from supposed employees and friends-of-employees that Rivian was targeting introduction of a heat pump in mid-2024 along some other changes . Although these generally aren't the most trustworthy sources by themselves, some consideration must be given when many other indicators hint at the same thing.
- Rivian has been pushing hard recently to clear existing inventory with incentives (free upgraded wheels, paint colors, "buy now or you'll have to wait *gasp*," etc.) ahead of the shutdown, likely because they know that any changes introduced during the April shutdown will result lower demand for their existing outdated inventory.
- The very recent introduction of heavily discounted demo vehicles to the shop. Considering other indicators, I'd guess they want to clear out their demo fleet because they'll be getting new updated demo vehicles soon.
Generally speaking, flagship vehicles are the first to showcase updated design language, new technologies, and a refined user experience, all of which eventually trickle down to cheaper models. Rivian has done the opposite. By unveiling two new lower cost vehicles that are arguably more refined than their ~4-6 year old flagship line (which was already feeling pressure from new competition), they've dated their only product offerings for the next 2 years and effectively shown potential customers that they should wait. They no doubt understood this two weeks ago when they outlined a slightly higher YoY production goal for 2024 and forecasted steady demand throughout, something that will be hard to achieve in light of these developments. Simply put, Rivian has to make their current products enticing enough to convince potential customers - those that could be persuaded to buy an R1S over an R2 - to buy now instead of waiting, otherwise R1 sales will continue to slow and they will not meet their production targets. They knew this when they briefed investors. Enter the mid-cycle refresh, a strategy employed by automakers for decades to keep demand up while their next product is in the works; no substantial changes, but enough to keep their vehicle fresh and relevant.
In addition to all of this, their plan to produce R2 at Normal enables them to critically centralize their supply chain(s) and concentrate their manufacturing talent in one place to efficiently manufacture R1 and eventually R2. Product alignment across both will allow them to share parts, gain efficiencies, negotiate more aggressively with suppliers for parts that touch all vehicles, etc., all of which will have an immediate and long term effect of reducing R1 production costs - their oft stated intent for the upcoming shutdown.
A strategy that checks all of the boxes - reduces CapEx, aligns product lines, keeps their existing sales up, prepares their next mass market vehicle(s) - is a winning one, and I think it entails refreshing the R1 line as soon as possible.
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