R1S Gen 1 vs Gen 2 Depreciation

[meshugy]

Like many people, I had been deliberating between purchasing an R1S Gen 1 Quad vs a Gen 2 Dual Large. Despite the lack of recent upgrades, the Gen 1 Quads are very attractive as they can be had either by great lease deals or bought used with few miles on them for well below MSRP. Used Quads go in the $65K-$80K range depending year, mileage, and options. A very basic new Gen 2 Dual Large is around $85K (if you leased and immediately bought it out you could take advantage of the $7500 EV credit and Rivian Gas/Hybrid incentive of $3000 to get it down to $74,500 ($77,195 if you include the dealer and delivery fees.)

I ended up purchasing a 2023 Quad Large (limestone, AT20 Black, underbody shield) with 350mi for $73K (original MSRP $95,500.) Part of my rational for choosing the Gen 1 Quad was that the initial depreciation hit had already been taken by the first owner. I’m guessing that, say in thee years I should be able to trade this Quad in with 20K mi on it for $55-$60K for what should be a fully evolved Gen 2 or possibly Gen 3 Rivian. If I had purchased a new Gen 2 Dual Large, I’m guessing that even with the discounts, the depreciation in three years would be much greater, perhaps only fetching $50K or less. Of course there are a lot of factors at play, the most important being how much more valuable will a Gen 2 be vs a Gen 1 in 3 years or more. Tough to say, but one thing is certain is that Gen 2 computer/sensor/camera/suspension upgrades aside, anyone who wants a Quad motor with over 800HP will certainly still find these Gen 1 Quads an amazing deal as similar specs for a Gen 2 get you well over $100K.

Anyway, to get at least some sense how Rivian would valuate a Gen 1 Quad vs a Gen 2 Dual Large, I submitted both to Rivian for trade in offers. Here are the results:

2023 R1S Quad Large, Limestone, Black Mountain + Dark Ash Wood, AT 20 Black, Underbody Shield, 350mi (MSRP $95,500): $67,850

2025 R1S Dual Large, LA Silver, Black Mountain, 22 Sport Bright, 180mi (MSRP $84,700): $69,500

Only a difference of $1,650 in trade in value. Of course, if I had paid the original MSRP of my Gen 1 Quad, the depreciation would be about 30%. However, anyone buying a Gen 1 today would pay something in the $70K range for it. A trade in value in the upper $60K range isn’t bad at all with only around 10% depreciation. The 2025 dropped a full 20% from the MSRP, but if you got all the incentives and paid only around $77K it’s also just about 10%.

So based on these numbers, these two options are pretty well identical in terms of future trade in value. It will be interesting to see what the values look like in 3 or more years from now.

Anyway, hope this clarifies the decision making process a bit for others making this choice.

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[Donald Stanfield]

I doubt you're going to get 55 on your quad in 3 years. My '22 with 37K on it is worth 51 on trade, and that's through Rivian that is one of the better numbers I've seen.

 

[meshugy]

I doubt you're going to get 55 on your quad in 3 years. My '22 with 37K on it is worth 51 on trade, and that's through Rivian that is one of the better numbers I've seen.

Thanks for that, good to hear what Rivian is offering for a higher mileage vechile. I drive around 7k miles a year so probably just 21k miles in three years. If you where offered $51K for 37Kmi $55K seems reasonable for 21Kmi

 

[Golfer04]

I doubt you're going to get 55 on your quad in 3 years. My '22 with 37K on it is worth 51 on trade, and that's through Rivian that is one of the better numbers I've seen.

I got $55,000 for my 2022 R1T with 24,000 miles. Obviously Quad on 20AT. I think depreciation of the vehicles (including the Tri Max T I close on this week) is going to be VERY dependent on rapidly changing battery technology. Sounds like some new battery technology is going into a few 2026 EVs a year from now with less weight (better efficiency) and better charging. I think the depreciation hit could be substantial on either gen 1 or gen 2.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Thanks for that, good to hear what Rivian is offering for a higher mileage vechile. I drive around 7k miles a year so probably just 21k miles in three years. If you where offered $51K for 37Kmi $55K seems reasonable for 21Kmi

But in 3 years, yours will be 4 years old; mine is only 2 years old now. So two years older is going to hurt the value as well.

 

[meshugy]

But in 3 years, yours will be 4 years old; mine is only 2 years old now. So two years older is going to hurt the value as well.

I’m guessing pure mileage is the biggest factor in valualtion, so identical models from a range of years are probably valued pretty similar if not identical as long as the mileage is the same.

I just looked a 2022 R1S Quad vs a 2023 R1S Quad in Kelly Blue Book and the difference was just over $1K.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I’m guessing pure mileage is the biggest factor in valualtion, so identical models from a range of years are probably valued pretty similar if not identical as long as the mileage is the same.

I just looked a 2022 R1S Quad vs a 2023 R1S Quad in Kelly Blue Book and the difference was just over $1K.

That's possible, but age related depreciation tends to accelerate as vehicles get older. Problems occur more often and the exterior condition is going to be worse. Maybe it won't be as much of a factor as I'm thinking I'm just going off past experience.

 

[NY_Rob]

I’m guessing that, say in thee years I should be able to trade this (2023) Quad in with 20K mi on it for $55-$60K

You need to revise that number down son... a lot!

Data point: I recently traded in my 2023 R1T Quad in perfect condition with only 3,500mi on it for $60K. And, that is a one year old vehicle!

Don't try to get your $$$ values from KBB, no dealer uses them, none.

 

[tjrivian]

the Gen 1 Quads are very attractive as they can be had either by great lease deals

Can you point me to some Gen 1 Quads still available to lease? I think this portion of your statement may have been true a month or two ago, but I don't think there are many(any?) remaining at this point.

 

[meshugy]

You need to revise that number down son... a lot!

Data point: I recently traded in my 2023 R1T Quad in perfect condition with only 3,500mi on it for $60K. And, that is a one year old vehicle!

Don't try to get your $$$ values from KBB, no dealer uses them, none.

$60K sounds about right for an R1T Quad with 3Kmi. I don’t know exactly what the MSRP on a typical 2023 R1T quad was, but probably several thousand less than an R1S. So if a 2023 R1S with 350mi gets $68K in trade from Rivian, @3500mi its reasonable they’d offer $62K and maybe $55k @20kmi. Who knows, I guess I’ll find out. Even if they offered me only $50K @20Kmi, that’s just a cost of $23K to own the car for three years which is better than any lease.

Dealers are selling R1S Quads with 3kmi for around $78K and with 20Kmi around $70K. Makes sense you’d be able to trade a Quad with 20Kmi in for at least $55K, but all that may change.

Sure, Kelly BB is not the most reliable source but in this case they estimated my vehicle at $68k which is exactly what Rivian offered me for it.

 

[meshugy]

Can you point me to some Gen 1 Quads still available to lease? I think this portion of your statement may have been true a month or two ago, but I don't think there are many(any?) remaining at this point.

other than the one that has been sitting in Hawaii for a month or two: https://rivianroamer.com/inventory/07eaafd9f0baa8dd0760194e69084401

over the last month I’ve seen 4 other ones, they were located in CA, MA, ID, and Phoenix I think. Maybe those were the last ones, but I’d guess a few more may pop up but maybe nowhere near you. There’s still a pile of old stock in Canada, and Rivian has transferred unsold Canadian inventory to the US in the past:

https://rivianroamer.com/inventory?view=grid&sort=last_activated_at&direction=desc&region=CA&condition=NEW_VEHICLE_CONFIG&model_year[]=2024&model_year[]=2023&model[]=R1S&ev_credit=0&nationwide=0

It’s also worth noting that the lease deal on the one in Hawaii actually has gotten worse. It was originally around $680 per month, now over $700. Still a great deal, but the sub $600 a month deals people were getting last Spring seem to be gone.

As good as those lease deals are, I think you can do better with a used low mileage Quad. CarMax seems to get a lot of them and they routinely sell sub 1Kmi vehicles for $73K.

 

[R1Tom]

That's possible, but age related depreciation tends to accelerate as vehicles get older. Problems occur more often and the exterior condition is going to be worse. Maybe it won't be as much of a factor as I'm thinking I'm just going off past experience.

That will lead to some amazing values then on the used market. If a 3 year old G1 went from $80k to $50k in 3 years....then if depreciation accelerates....we will be looking at G1 QM that are 6 years old trading hands for less than $20k.

 

[Rivian Roamer]

other than the one that has been sitting in Hawaii for a month or two: https://rivianroamer.com/inventory/07eaafd9f0baa8dd0760194e69084401

over the last month I’ve seen 4 other ones, they were located in CA, MA, ID, and Phoenix I think. Maybe those were the last ones, but I’d guess a few more may pop up but maybe nowhere near you. There’s still a pile of old stock in Canada, and Rivian has transferred unsold Canadian inventory to the US in the past:

https://rivianroamer.com/inventory?view=grid&sort=last_activated_at&direction=desc&region=CA&condition=NEW_VEHICLE_CONFIG&model_year[]=2024&model_year[]=2023&model[]=R1S&ev_credit=0&nationwide=0

It’s also worth noting that the lease deal on the one in Hawaii actually has gotten worse. It was originally around $680 per month, now over $700. Still a great deal, but the sub $600 a month deals people were getting last Spring seem to be gone.

As good as those lease deals are, I think you can do better with a used low mileage Quad. CarMax seems to get a lot of them and they routinely sell sub 1Kmi vehicles for $73K.

One of the benefits of leasing is gaining access to the $7,500 fed tax credit for those that may not qualify due to income limitations.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

Folks if depreciation is a concern and you don’t put on 18-20k+ per year then leasing is the way to go.

the car market is really tough right now especially on more expensive luxury vehicles.

I was offered 58,xxx and some change for my 23 R1T quad large with 23k mi on it. I paid more for mine but I purchased in early 2023 when prices for the T started to cool down. I got it used with 200 miles on it. MSRP $88,500 and I paid 85k for it plus Maryland sales tax…another 5k.

percentages are all relative. 30% depreciation on a 70k vehicle is much different than 30% on a 100k vehicle (21k vs 30k).

If any of us are serious about the best financial options get a 5 year old Toyota and drive it for at least 10 years. You will save a ton of money but bored to death driving it for 10 years.

get your moneys worth …drive it…enjoy it….and don’t replace until your comfortable with numbers. I have found that in most cases it doesn’t make sense to try and replace it within the first three years….the cost to own per mile is way too high.

sorry I ranted a little.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

That will lead to some amazing values then on the used market. If a 3 year old G1 went from $80k to $50k in 3 years....then if depreciation accelerates....we will be looking at G1 QM that are 6 years old trading hands for less than $20k.

Age-related depreciation accelerates, but the overall depreciation rate slows because the most prominent hit is the transition from new to used status. Age becomes a factor because the warranty going is another value hit. For example, a 7-year-old car with 10K miles on it will be worth less than a 2-year-old car with 30K on it, assuming the same car with the same features.

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