Does Rivian have what it takes to survive?

[dradam]

No crystal ball here, but my experience has been great after 18 months and one quick repair. In my own area I continue to see more and more Rivians. I realy can't wait to drive each day.

My gen one came late in 23 and I think many of the early issues were worked out. To some extent I feel that Gen 2 came with its own early issues and are now being worked out as well. A growth and learning curve are inevitable both with the service and vehicle itself. We are all still early adopters and that is not for the feint hearted.

I can can only specuate that this learning curve will benifit R2 right from the get go. A lot is riding on R2 like it was riding on the model 3.

As a stock holder I want them to succeed, as an owner of R1S I want them to succeed as a driver of an R1S I frankly don't see how they can't succeed.

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[Rade]

I’ve always been bullish on Rivian, but I recently experienced being a customer shopping for a Rivian and it makes me second guess if they have what it takes to survive. The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups. The corporate sales reps are not knowledgeable of the products. The vast drivetrain and battery options for a company that barely produces 50k vehicles a years seems like a poor strategy for increasing volume and becoming profitable.

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

I hope I’m wrong.

I don't know where you went, but when we booked our test drive in Boston's Back Bay, our Rivian rep was beyond helpful as we climbed all over the vehicles. I was actually getting somewhat embarrassed as my husband kept coming up with more questions. The rep stayed with us through it all (even a long, meandering test drive!) and answered everything.

Yes, they do need to change how details are communicated once you place a reservation. What I obtained From this blog at the time we reserved, folks spoke that the estimate before any form of "next in the process" notifications was 12-14 weeks. I think I saw our status change once in the first weeks after making the reservation. However, 7 weeks after reserving, the notifications began to flood in about "Time to plan for delivery!". The online checklist of documents opened up of what we had to upload and was easy to follow. Our factory delivery reps were responsive with direct questions about the documents and photos uploaded, but a little lax on nebulous queries. We took delivery at the Chelsea MA service center, and that process was painless. The site rep walked us through EVERYTHING about our R1T and then some. Two signatures on the trade title and we were out the door.

In the followup survey, I had suggested that it might help alleviate some of the anxiety of buying a $80k+ vehicle online if they offered some more status on the owner portal, like a periodic update of where the vehicle was in the assembly process.

All in all, this was the very FIRST time we ever bought a vehicle that we got exactly the vehicle that we wanted. We did not have to compromise for whatever a dealership had on the lot to get close to what we expected.

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

Rivian has lost $25 billion dollars on high end cars which were supposed to subsidize R2 development. Instead the opposite happened. They make unreliable cars, offer exceptionally long service wait times, ans ignore what their customers really want (bug free software and CarPlay). The front end looks dork mobile.

They also are so desperate for cash they are enabling a direct competitor in the Scout. An incredibly stupid decision, born of poor corporate governance, that business school students will study for years to come.

They will survive for at least a few more years, however, since there is plenty of capital available for electric cars, no matter how dumb and inexperienced management is.

People will buy their cars because there are no good alternatives. They’re sort of like Land Rover: shitty, but the LA set loves em. That might change in a few years, but for now they are fine.

 

[raylepper]

I’ve always been bullish on Rivian, but I recently experienced being a customer shopping for a Rivian and it makes me second guess if they have what it takes to survive. The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups. The corporate sales reps are not knowledgeable of the products. The vast drivetrain and battery options for a company that barely produces 50k vehicles a years seems like a poor strategy for increasing volume and becoming profitable.

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

I hope I’m wrong.

It's a complete waste of time for individuals lacking substantive knowledge or expertise to engage in speculative discourse on a subject they do not fully understand. This forum is not made more valuable by posts like this. And there have been far too many already.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

It is highly likely that even RJ Scaringe does not know if RIvian will "make it." No one has a crystal ball.

Well if anyone does I would certainly expect the chairman of the Federal Reserve to have at least a gut feeling.

 

[Doctor Z]

Rivian’s first deliveries took place at the very end of 2021. So after 3 full years why are you expecting them to produce and sell more than they have? Especially since you already set Tesla as the benchmark for some reason….

And….this graph starts with Model S. Actual production, ie drivetrains fitted to Lotus bodies, began in 2008. Those production numbers were only 3-4 digits per year.

 

[SparkyR1t]

Rivian has lost $25 billion dollars on high end cars which were supposed to subsidize R2 development. Instead the opposite happened. They make unreliable cars, offer exceptionally long service wait times, ans ignore what their customers really want (bug free software and CarPlay). The front end looks dork mobile.

They also are so desperate for cash they are enabling a direct competitor in the Scout. An incredibly stupid decision, born of poor corporate governance, that business school students will study for years to come.

They will survive for at least a few more years, however, since there is plenty of capital available for electric cars, no matter how dumb and inexperienced management is.

People will buy their cars because there are no good alternatives. They’re sort of like Land Rover: shitty, but the LA set loves em. That might change in a few years, but for now they are fine.

Got to admit I have a concern when you sell your technology to the competitor, and not a very solid competitor financially. Maybe bigger plans in the making. And yes I am a Rivian owner since 2022 and a substantial stock holder

 

[Jgallant]

I'm very confident this company will survive. Rivian has a diversity of products to include the Amazon Delivery trucks, its partnership with Volkswagen, other delivery vehicle as well as a strategy to give customers something different including the RX3. I strongly believe there just isn't enough variety out there for customers to tag onto when it comes to vehicle choices. They think about customer's choices as well as encouraging the family to get out and adventure outdoors. I believe when they get a mass production and the demand goes up for a smaller vehicle footprint like the RX3, it will reach a whole new customer base including millennial's, Gen-z and Generation-Beta...

 

[COdogman]

And….this graph starts with Model S. Actual production, ie drivetrains fitted to Lotus bodies, began in 2008. Those production numbers were only 3-4 digits per year.

True. And I had to hunt for a graph that even started in 2013. Most of them seem to want us to think Tesla started in 2017.

 

[Captain JB]

There is one major concern: vehicle repair service. I waited 3 months for an appt and then 2 days before the appt, they pushed it back another month..ouch. I bring it in and all went but they said it will be a week for the repairs as they dont work on the weekends!!! What in the world! They are 4 months behind on service appts and they dont work on the weekend……that is simply unacceptable and very inconsiderate for the Rivian owners. I had many a service appts with on the weekends with Jeep and then the Chevy Volt. They will never catch up if they dont get rid of this extremely poor business decision.

 

[Hatbox_Ghoul]

There is one major concern: vehicle repair service. I waited 3 months for an appt and then 2 days before the appt, they pushed it back another month..ouch. I bring it in and all went but they said it will be a week for the repairs as they dont work on the weekends!!! What in the world! They are 4 months behind on service appts and they dont work on the weekend……that is simply unacceptable and very inconsiderate for the Rivian owners. I had many a service appts with on the weekends with Jeep and then the Chevy Volt. They will never catch up if they dont get rid of this extremely poor business decision.

When they push your appointment, is it based on severity? As in, that won't impact drivability?

Also, you don't want your car worked on on the weekends. At dealerships, the good techs don't work during the weekends, the new guys and inexperience work then. Avoid weekend appointments like a cancer.

 

[ebgrounds]

This may indicate a greater chance of survival. Amazon has a big stake in the success of Rivian.

I don't know all the details of the deal, but I am sure Amazon qualifies for several different ESG credits for EV trucks, has a lower cost per truck than before, and has optimized cargo space for Amazon distribution.

Disclaimer - I am not a finance guru or a business strategist. Just an interesting observation that may have influenced where I put some of my investment dollars.

 

[Noplacelikeloam]

Good lord, we are still having this debate? So, will Nike? Will Kohls? Will Macys?

 

[mkg3]

Good lord, we are still having this debate? So, will Nike? Will Kohls? Will Macys?

Nike - yes
Kohls - no (like Mervins before)
Macys - probably not (like most department stores past)...

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