180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[Dbeglor]

Classic under promise/over deliver attitude but it still doesn't add up. To be at 150,000 units run rate in Q1 2024 or +- 2,900 per week they would need to be at say 2,500/w in Q4 2023, 2,000/w in Q3 2023, etc. If you do the math going from 113 cars/w in the last 2 months of this quarter (1200-180/9w) and ramp up the production per week reasonably by only 35, 100, 250, 250 cars/w in each quarters in fiscal 2022 and then by another 250, 500, 500, 500 cars/w in each quarters in F2023 so they are at the 2,900 total/w in Q1 2024 (150,000 yearly run rate) and you would have a cumulative production of 113,650 cars by the end of 2023. Either they will not reach the target run rate by then or they don't want to generate to much expectations...

I'm guessing they are assuming an "S" shaped ramp, where they ramp up at a quick rate (right now), stall out at some level for most of next year while supply constraints alleviate, and then start a second ramp in 2023.

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[Scoiatael]

I think they are allowing for supply constraints to put a cap on that ramp up at a rate of about 20-25k/year. They think they can ramp up to that, but will stall out until things out of their control change.

True, they also need time to build service centers to support deliveries, and maybe that is going to take longer than they initially planned.

 

[hed]

I've been saying 2023-2024 since June. Rivian's batting average speaks for itself. If I had to venture a guess I'd say less than 30% of all LE holders will have their LE RT1 by the end of 2022 and Rivian will not fill the back log of the previously mentioned 55k until mid-late 2024.

Either you believe they will produce like they claim or they won't. I don't believe based on what I've seen vs what they have been saying. It's just hasn't been their MO to be upfront with whatever challenges they have come across in any meaningful way. Why would anyone believe otherwise at this point? The only reason we even have this information is because they want to do a IPO. If there is any hope of them actually making these targets it's because this was filed and related to the stock.

As I said in my last forum post, I expect my vehicle in 2023, and I reserved in Nov 2018.

 

[André]

True, they also need time to build service centers to support deliveries, and maybe that is going to take longer than they initially planned.

The 150,000 annual run rate production ramp up by Q1 2024 is not from old plans… this is in the update S1 filed today page 128. They even expect that they will have an unused additional capacity of 50,000 by then… but I guess all these numbers include the EDV for Amazon

« The factory building covers approximately 3.3 million square feet and is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually. In early 2024, we expect to reach a vehicle build rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using the facility’s current installed capacity.

We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility. Over the next couple of years, we expect to establish additional domestic production capacity in order to support our product development roadmap and fulfill future anticipated demand. »

 

[dsmithsalinas]

Will definitely be continuing to track progress and see how things go forward. I'm a later reservation holder (June 2021), so realize lots of people before me. Next year will be when I determine if I can wait for late 2022 or 2023 for the R1T as we head back to the office part-time and will likely need more than one car in the house. I'm not crazy about most of the EVs out there right now, which is what excites me so much about the R1T, but we'll see. I'm happy to see they're making progress and love seeing all the pics of new owners. Super proud of their team for finally getting production vehicles, I bet getting those delivered was such a glorious day after all their hard work.

 

[Bumble1978]

 

[LaunchGreen]

Everyone on this thread needs to keep in mind that this information is from public market filings and not from marketing communications. They can be held liable if they are found to make misleading statements which is why they are simply taking current production and multiplying it outwards.

While I'm grateful for the improved transparency, it's a shame that it's forced via filing rather than just coming directly from the company. That said, we also need to realize that we are (and have been) in the pre-IPO quiet period, so they really can't say too much right now. Post IPO I expect a flood of information... right??

 

[thedole]

Everyone on this thread needs to keep in mind that this information is from public market filings and not from marketing communications. They can be held liable if they are found to make misleading statements which is why they are simply taking current production and multiplying it outwards.

While I'm grateful for the improved transparency, it's a shame that it's forced via filing rather than just coming directly from the company. That said, we also need to realize that we are (and have been) in the pre-IPO quiet period, so they really can't say too much right now. Post IPO I expect a flood of information... right??

I'm not an expert, but I do believe they are expected to release info that is as accurate as possible with the knowledge they have and not just be way conservative. Large over-estimates and under-estimates would be misleading and would open them up to liability.

 

[André]

Everyone on this thread needs to keep in mind that this information is from public market filings and not from marketing communications. They can be held liable if they are found to make misleading statements which is why they are simply taking current production and multiplying it outwards.

While I'm grateful for the improved transparency, it's a shame that it's forced via filing rather than just coming directly from the company. That said, we also need to realize that we are (and have been) in the pre-IPO quiet period, so they really can't say too much right now. Post IPO I expect a flood of information... right??

At current production pace (113 cars/week) they would build the existing preorders in 9.3 years !

 

[paariv]

I've been saying 2023-2024 since June. Rivian's batting average speaks for itself. If I had to venture a guess I'd say less than 30% of all LE holders will have their LE RT1 by the end of 2022 and Rivian will not fill the back log of the previously mentioned 55k until mid-late 2024.

Either you believe they will produce like they claim or they won't. I don't believe based on what I've seen vs what they have been saying. It's just hasn't been their MO to be upfront with whatever challenges they have come across in any meaningful way. Why would anyone believe otherwise at this point? The only reason we even have this information is because they want to do a IPO. If there is any hope of them actually making these targets it's because this was filed and related to the stock.

As I said in my last forum post, I expect my vehicle in 2023, and I reserved in Nov 2018.

Some of this depends on how many LEs you think there are. I think they limited LE orders and that they'll be close to meeting the Spring deadline for LE deliveries. No way are they going to be less than 1/3 through LEs more than a year from now.

But no matter how many LEs you think people ordered, what you describe is the schedule of a company that's going out of business quickly. If you really believe that, you should get your money back now, because there's no way you're getting a truck.

 

[atlastracer]

That said, we also need to realize that we are (and have been) in the pre-IPO quiet period, so they really can't say too much right now. Post IPO I expect a flood of information... right??

I am not an expert. But I believe the quiet-period extends 40 days *after* the stock starts publicly trading. So if they go public on Tues/Wed next week (Nov 9/10). Quiet period would extend until basically Christmas.

 

[Smithery]

"as of October 31, 2021, we produced 180 R1Ts and delivered 156 R1Ts. Nearly all of these vehicles were delivered to Rivian employees, and we expect to ramp deliveries to third-party customers as we increase our production rate."

If only "nearly all" trucks have gone to employees, then a non-zero number has gone to non-employees.

With apologies to all the forum members who assume that a non-employee with a truck must necessarily be enough of an enthusiast to be on these forums and reveal themselves to be, but...

This puts to rest the "only employees have taken deliveries debate."

This language plainly states that non-employees have taken delivery. No matter what Rivians communications strategy is or is not, I guarantee their legal strategy does not include "lie to the SEC leading up to the IPO"

 

[paariv]

If only "nearly all" trucks have gone to employees, then a non-zero number has gone to non-employees.

With apologies to all the forum members who assume that a non-employee with a truck must necessarily be enough of an enthusiast to be on these forums and reveal themselves to be, but...

This puts to rest the "only employees have taken deliveries debate."

This language plainly states that non-employees have taken delivery. No matter what Rivians communications strategy is or is not, I guarantee their legal strategy does not include "lie to the SEC leading up to the IPO"

Yes and no - and we'll be splitting hairs here until we actually get our cars. But non-employees could be: 1)former employees; 2) families of employees/former employees; 3)investors/business partners/their families. In other words, people with an inside connection to Rivian.

It's impossible to rule out that a very small number of outsiders have gotten cars. But I wouldn't be surprised if there were 0 outsider deliveries so far.

Just look at the experience of those on the forum who had October delivery dates and saw the month pass without a delivery or even useful/clear information. That's not the behavior of a company whose only problem is figuring out how to manufacture at scale. It's the behavior of a company that's not quite ready for the general public to have its cars.

 

[eggpaul]

If only "nearly all" trucks have gone to employees, then a non-zero number has gone to non-employees.

With apologies to all the forum members who assume that a non-employee with a truck must necessarily be enough of an enthusiast to be on these forums and reveal themselves to be, but...

This puts to rest the "only employees have taken deliveries debate."

This language plainly states that non-employees have taken delivery. No matter what Rivians communications strategy is or is not, I guarantee their legal strategy does not include "lie to the SEC leading up to the IPO"

That statement can mean (most likely does) that 1 truck went to Bezos and the rest to employees.

 

[Diddy123]

That statement can mean (most likely does) that 1 truck went to Bezos and the rest to employees.

Yep. If anything the updated S-1 confirms what most of us have been saying all along.

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