New Delivery Delay Confirmed - My R1T Delivery Pushed From October to end of February, 2022.

[Jazzyjeff139]

He told me he found out today. I was the first call he made.

What city are you in and configuration?

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[Greenwater]

Just out of curiosity, did your Guide contact you, or did you contact your Guide, to receive this delay information??

Are you keeping your Bolt Jared?? I am so sad that I will be handing my Bolt over to a local dealership on a buyback this Thursday. Will miss that sweet little car SO MUCH!!! Was hoping to have the R1T buy now and not have to drive an ICE piece of crap until it arrives. Now, I'll probably be lucky to get it by Spring or even before Summer. (12/4/2018, LE/LG/FE) No Guide contact for me yet...by Thanksgiving...doubt it. ?

A used ev holds value pretty well, could try for a used model 3 and sell it later.

 

[Greenwater]

And there goes any chance of getting the current $7500 tax credit...

Wasn't the next rebate similar to the old one for non union shops? It's not that likely to pass, but the old one would continue.

 

[Greenwater]

As of 2 hours ago I was still considering buying shares. That is no longer the case. I really do hope Rivian survives and look forward to attempting to complete a purchase of both an R1T and R1S at some point in the next ?2?? years.

However, as many have said the market doesn't tolerate missing targets OVER AND OVER AND OVER regardless of the reason. Part of having a competent management team is being able to forecast. Underpromise and overdeliver is standard C-suite behavior in terms of forward guidance. Haven't seen anything approaching that in the last 2 years.

It's disappointing they took this long to tell us about the delays but pretty much every auto manufacturer is facing it, with Ford and GM having almost 30% reduction in sales year over year, because of inability to make more cars.

 

[Greenwater]

I'm certainly not an expert on this but I am actually pretty heavily invested in magnesium related stocks so I watch this industry. Part of being educated is reading beyond the headline. I'm not sure you read the information in the links you sent? At this point, there isn't a magnesium shortage in the United States, thus there is no supply chain issue with magnesium in the United States. Might there be in the near future? Yes. But not now. So, the current non-existent magnesium supply chain issue, can't be the reason for current Rivian delays. Delays in 6 months or a year, maybe, but not now. The current, non-existent magnesium supply chain issue, also doesn't explain Rivian not communicating with pre-order holders (especially LE holders) about production delays. Probably hard to get the whole story with the head in the sand.

What's the reason why Ford and GM sales dropped almost 30% year-over-year, it's the slow down, it affects supplies for the entire automobile industry. Rivian should be affected by this, aluminum would be a whole other issue or magnesium on top of that.

 

[BigE]

I imagine there will be constraints from all manufacturers going forward.

Really wish Rivian had gone higher end with their voltage and cellular/WiFi tech. It’s going to be outdated when people get their vehicles in 2 years

This has been my biggest fear is the now almost outdated electric architecture. Rivian did most of the design/engineering on the R1T in 2015/2016 and had pretty much fully baked by 2018. So if you get your 2018 in 2023? I hope they are already working on the refresh but doubtful as they can hardly build this first/current model. Everyone laughed when Elon made comments about Rivian. Who’s laughing now.

 

[Bumble1978]

Another tidbit I'd like to throw out there not necessarily for the trolling conspiracy theorists among us, but rather those that enjoy noticing patterns in life that may or may not mean anything but remain intriguing nonetheless...(frankly those of us who may or may not be fans of C&C Music Factory during our formative years...where it was none too common to ponder...Hmmm)

Just like Neo falling his first time...because everyone does...

Did anyone else notice the coincidental intrigue that both the IPO information and Delay were announced on an off-year Election Day?!? ?

What say you?

 

[bmelt]

A thought about the delivery strategy. We know that employees, for the most part, have been the recipients of the first R1Ts off the line. That is important to help control the quality and the narrative around the first deliveries. They may have signed agreements as part of their employment to keep opinions and other thoughts to themselves (and not post, share, etc. on media outlets).

At the same time, we are now in the "quiet period" ahead of the Rivian IPO. That quiet period goes in place because the SEC and courts have broadly construed the term “offer” (aka IPO registration) to include communications that might generate public interest in an issuer or its securities, and therefore the scope of communications that are potentially subject to restriction is quite broad.
So, by delivering to employees in the beginning and up until the IPO, for a number of reasons, they are also able to control the narrative around the R1T and not have any negative or other publicity from the "general public" taking delivery which may impact the pricing, participation, or other activity related to the IPO. Somewhat smart from their perspective to have the "right" narrative in place as the IPO share price is set and trading begins.

But, now the news is leaking out that the deliveries of trucks will be way past the promised dates. Not good from an IPO valuation perspective.

My guess is that once the shares are "live" on the exchange, we may see deliveries beyond the initial employee deliveries increase. That would be a factor of controlling the narrative ahead of the IPO as well as the quality and production streamlining of bringing a new product to market. But, we also have the chip shortage in play which will most likely continue to impact everyone, Rivian included. But as a public company, they will be in the quarterly release schedule of earnings, influences, statistics, and other items of note. They will not be able to be silent and continue to tell folks, "Good things coming soon...."

The SEC filing does say, "...By the end of 2021, we intend to produce approximately 1,200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss and deliver approximately 1,000 R1Ts and 15 R1Ss..." which means a pretty significant ramp rate of production and delivery over the 150ish trucks delivered to date.

Just my two cents as I have thought through the timing of how everything is coming together.

 

[Gator42]

We've got an R1S on order, but we want the max pack that's not even out yet. Probably safe to say we're not getting that until 2024 at this point lol. And I'm including all the pre orders that back out, moving me up the line haha. Gonna be forever.

The slow ramp is likely dead since supply chain delays don’t necessarily stop the engineers. The extra time can be a benefit, especially with the beta trucks out in the wild and RIVN can still be perfecting the production line and working on improvements like the max pack while the lines sit idle. If the supply chain ever clears up they should be able to crank up production quickly.

 

[Gator42]

Did anyone else notice the coincidental intrigue that both the IPO information and Delay were announced on an off-year Election Day?!? ?

What say you?

I like a good conspiracy as much as the next man…but what are you implying?

…is this one of those illuminati things?

 

[BigE]

For those of you that changed your minds on DSP, I'll just point out that Rivian will hit their targets as stated in the S-1. The general market will not know that a guide updated a delivery timeframe for a customer.

Just something to think about if you're looking at it from the standpoint of your standard investor, instead of an enthusiast forum member.

How many times have we now seen this exact forum quoted in news outlets? Multiple.

 

[GaryL]

Wasn't there a second October delivery promised ?

 

[Bumble1978]

I like a good conspiracy as much as the next man…but what are you implying?

…is this one of those illuminati things?

I mean it's probably more National Treasure than DaVinci Code at best, but if the Financing Partner and IPO are both connnected to some of our country's oldest family money in JP Morgan...and we all know that there is big money in Politics at every level...?!?

It's either purely coincidental or brilliant strategy in creating some kind of scarcity market panic to make the number machine jump a bit. ?????

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[Jimbo]

Long-term forum members will remember my gear tunnel-compatible delay meme…the Rivian Adventure Walker that I will need by the time I get this thing.

I'm with you on this one...LOL.

This is me waiting for the R1T...

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