Which ADAS is Really Driving? It’s Mobileye!

[JM.]

No. I don't consider people in the same category as assistance systems.

For sure, meatbag drivers are less reliable and safe than automated systems. But they can be more fun.

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[Donald Stanfield]

For sure, meatbag drivers are less reliable and safe than automated systems. But they can be more fun.

Less reliable and safe, my ass. Automation technology isn't anywhere near a human's capability, and anyone who says otherwise is wrong.

 

[JM.]

Automation isn't anywhere near a human's distractability, ego, competitiveness, and stupidity. Those are the biggest problems in driving. The skill of most human drivers is acceptable, their foibles and errors are the real problem.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Automation isn't anywhere near a human's distractability, ego, competitiveness, and stupidity. Those are the biggest problems in driving. The skill of most human drivers is acceptable, their foibles and errors are the real problem.

You're delusional if you think ADAS systems are at human driving level. Show me one system operating without restrictions. Didn't think so.

 

[George Kaplan]

The other advantage for tesla is the cybercab will cost $15K to manufacture and the panels are made of injection molded plastic. That means repair costs and totaling a vehicle will be inexpensive. The battery is only 40kWh which they achieve a good range by getting 5.5+ miles per kWh

Tesla accident rate just needs to be lower than human which is not a very high bar as humans get into accidents all the time. The cars are still insured and everything will play out as normal.

But there is the rub: If the bar is set at “better than humans”, then shareholders have to know that is the level of risk the company is assuming in liability when the Cybercabs are deployed (L5) or consumer vehicles are using the software (L4).
It’s one thing to face a random rash of lawsuits because this Pinto you put out in the market has some engineering issues.

It’s quite another if every HW3 and newer (if that’s where Tesla draws the line) is suddenly a legal liability for the company if the vehicle uses the software and gets into an accident. Or does Tesla place the same narrow restrictions on use that M-B does with Drive Pilot, such as “not to be used in the rain”?

 

[JM.]

You're delusional if you think ADAS systems are at human driving level. Show me one system operating without restrictions. Didn't think so.

And you're delusional if you think humans are less fallible, distracted, etc. At no time did I claim anything regarding hands off/eyes off driving. ADAS is not at human driving levels, it's generally much better of course. With exceptions.

 

[pamalabama]

But there is the rub: If the bar is set at “better than humans”, then shareholders have to know that is the level of risk the company is assuming in liability when the Cybercabs are deployed (L5) or consumer vehicles are using the software (L4).
It’s one thing to face a random rash of lawsuits because this Pinto you put out in the market has some engineering issues.

It’s quite another if every HW3 and newer (if that’s where Tesla draws the line) is suddenly a legal liability for the company if the vehicle uses the software and gets into an accident. Or does Tesla place the same narrow restrictions on use that M-B does with Drive Pilot, such as “not to be used in the rain”?

there's no risk. Assuming you have insurance it will be like riding in a normal car

lawsuits would happen if like cruise, someone is dragged or someone dies, but ideally all deaths will be from not at-fault accidents

 

[Donald Stanfield]

And you're delusional if you think humans are less fallible, distracted, etc. At no time did I claim anything regarding hands off/eyes off driving. ADAS is not at human driving levels, it's generally much better of course. With exceptions.

It’s much better “with exceptions” like the fact that it can’t be trusted to be u supervised? You claimed that auto driving is better than human drivers, yet cannot give a single example of that being the case.

 

[JM.]

yet cannot give a single example of that being the case.

I can give a shitload of examples, including ones I've experienced where ADAS saw a red light runner that I couldn't see. My friend whose ADAS steered the car just before he realized that traffic wouldn't stop and rear end him. The examples are easily found.

You seem to be talking about FSD when saying the words ADAS instead. Do you know what the 'D' stands for? And the second 'A'?

 

[pamalabama]

I can give a shitload of examples, including ones I've experienced where ADAS saw a red light runner that I couldn't see. My friend whose ADAS steered the car just before he realized that traffic wouldn't stop and rear end him. The examples are easily found.

You seem to be talking about FSD when saying the words ADAS instead. Do you know what the 'D' stands for? And the second 'A'?

your friends are they driving tesla or a chinese brand?

Most cars do not have the steering wheel torque to avoid accidents because they do not have the ability to turn the steering wheel fast enough

 

[pamalabama]

What I consider truly unsafe about modern ADAS systems is the fact that they are designed to perform one function with a technology ceiling where they could not be upgraded using the same base technology to do more features.

Sure you don't have to be like tesla and execute unprotected left turns, uturns, stop for red lights, etc. but these functions add another level of safety when it comes to user handoff or auto emergency braking/accident avoidance.

 

[George Kaplan]

there's no risk. Assuming you have insurance it will be like riding in a normal car

lawsuits would happen if like cruise, someone is dragged or someone dies, but ideally all deaths will be from not at-fault accidents

No.

A Tesla using L4 self-driving is a liability on Tesla. The software is driving, so Tesla is legally liable in the event of an accident involving a Tesla using L4 driving.

Your insurance covers you for during driving in the supermarket parking lot, or in the pickup queue at school, etc.

Any driving not using Tesla L4 software is the responsibility and insurance of the driver. Any driving done under the full control of Tesla L4 software is Tesla’s liability.

It is exactly the same if you’re a passenger in a Cybercab—you’re not liable if the cab is involved in an accident. When your Model Y is operating under Tesla L4 software, you’re a passenger, regardless of where you’re sitting in the car.

 

[pamalabama]

No.

A Tesla using L4 self-driving is a liability on Tesla. The software is driving, so Tesla is legally liable in the event of an accident involving a Tesla using L4 driving.

Your insurance covers you for during driving in the supermarket parking lot, or in the pickup queue at school, etc.

Any driving not using Tesla L4 software is the responsibility and insurance of the driver. Any driving done under the full control of Tesla L4 software is Tesla’s liability.

It is exactly the same if you’re a passenger in a Cybercab—you’re not liable if the cab is involved in an accident. When your Model Y is operating under Tesla L4 software, you’re a passenger, regardless of where you’re sitting in the car.

Waymo uses insurance

The point is that tesla can charge for insurance but under a different form. There will obviously be some sort of maintenance cost to use full self driving. As long as it is not more expensive than operating your car now, no one would care

 

[George Kaplan]

Waymo uses insurance

The point is that tesla can charge for insurance but under a different form. There will obviously be some sort of maintenance cost to use full self driving. As long as it is not more expensive than operating your car now, no one would care

So your belief is the owner will pay (currently) $8K for the software, PLUS some form of up charge on a monthly or per-use basis to offset Tesla’s liability costs? Of course, some paid $12K or even $15K for their software, so they’re going to be sensitive to the addition of fees when they thought they already bought the solution.

Remember there are many masters to be served: The cost of the software has to be affordable (viewed as a % of the cost of the car), the downside of the full legal liability of a Tesla has to be mitigated, tacking on recurring costs creates an expense which the driver can easily drop when belt-tightening is needed, the plan has to embrace legacy owners with the minimum HW build and not just new owners.

Waymo is limited to low-speed driving. With Tesla’s plan for L4 there is the possibility of accidents at highway speeds, and the potential damage is magnified.

 

[pamalabama]

So your belief is the owner will pay (currently) $8K for the software, PLUS some form of up charge on a monthly or per-use basis to offset Tesla’s liability costs? Of course, some paid $12K or even $15K for their software, so they’re going to be sensitive to the addition of fees when they thought they already bought the solution.

Remember there are many masters to be served: The cost of the software has to be affordable (viewed as a % of the cost of the car), the downside of the full legal liability of a Tesla has to be mitigated, tacking on recurring costs creates an expense which the driver can easily drop when belt-tightening is needed, the plan has to embrace legacy owners with the minimum HW build and not just new owners.

Waymo is limited to low-speed driving. With Tesla’s plan for L4 there is the possibility of accidents at highway speeds, and the potential damage is magnified.

Waymo is rolling out highway driving.

FSD was actually never sold as full autonomy except a small time in 2018. What owners paid for was already delivered better than promised.

The point is that FSD replaces insurance. If you use FSD and you spend $80 a month for FSD, if that is cheaper than insurance then it saves money. If you use the robotaxi network and you contribute through revenue sharing, that is another source of paying for maintenance.

FSD is just like your current car except you get more value out of it because you can sleep and teleport long distances at night.

you also have to remember as driving quality and mapping improves, accidents will go down and robotaxi usage will go up. Costs will fall over time

Legacy owners is a relatively simple problem. You give them a new car for free. The amount of legacy owners who actually paid for full, unsupervised, L4 autonomy is very low. Especially ones that have not upgraded to a new car already.

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