Rivian work week reduced to 2-3 days until inventory comes down

[Schroederhc]

How are tariffs going to affect the used market?

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[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

People still get the same money they got 1onths ago. Tariffs has nothing to do with Rivian demand issues as well as LA fires. It is a véry nich product and people that want to pay 100k for the road car already bought what they wanted. R2 should be released this year and not in 2026.

And it would have been a premature release—with unfinished engineering, without securing supply lines (which is now reportedly at 95%), without expansion of production capacity and without expansion of service network.

If they had done all this sooner, Rivian would have spent itself into the history books alongside Fisker.

Great plan. /s

If anything could have been done different, Rivian should have launched R1S first and with all cost savings of gen2 platform. Anyone with eyes can see SUVs have greater market demand. As for platform architecture design… sometimes you just have to learn the hard way by doing and making mistakes.

 

[shap]

without expansion of production capacity and without expansion of service network.

Well, I never said they need to release R2 unfinished. What I said is that with the current trend, they may go out of business before they will be able to gain traction back with R2. The 7500 credit will probably be canceled by then, and the new Model Y AWD LR right now is about 41K (with the federal 7500 still active). I hardly see how Rivian, with new tariffs and sourcing batteries from China (67% tariff), will be able to be competitive.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Well, I never said they need to release R2 unfinished. What I said is that with the current trend, they may go out of business before they will be able to gain traction back with R2. The 7500 credit will probably be canceled by then, and the new Model Y AWD LR right now is about 41K (with the federal 7500 still active). I hardly see how Rivian, with new tariffs and sourcing batteries from China (67% tariff), will be able to be competitive.

And you miss the singular point. Given timeline and all steps required, along with R1 ramp, they couldn’t worked on n R2 sooner. Period. In the car biz, normal gestation is almost 10 years. 5-6 is considered accelerated. The fact they remain on schedule for first half of 26 is impressive, given the head winds they’ve faced along the way. Politics and tariffs are things no one in the business can predict or sway (they try, but done control it). All they can do is react and make adjustments to be resilient.

 

[shap]

And you miss the singular point. Given timeline and all steps required, along with R1 ramp, they couldn’t worked on n R2 sooner. Period. In the car biz, normal gestation is almost 10 years. 5-6 is considered accelerated.

R2 is very similar to R1 - I do not think they need 10 years for this. Anyway, like I said, my point it - they will miss their delivery numbers by far this year. R1 market is very limited, price/performance is not there for R1. This will be a very challenging year for Rivian.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Well, I never said they need to release R2 unfinished. What I said is that with the current trend, they may go out of business before they will be able to gain traction back with R2. The 7500 credit will probably be canceled by then, and the new Model Y AWD LR right now is about 41K (with the federal 7500 still active). I hardly see how Rivian, with new tariffs and sourcing batteries from China (67% tariff), will be able to be competitive.

Rivian has enough cash on hand to make it to R2 if they don't sell another R1 until it comes out in 2026 so they aren't going to be going out of business.

 

[shap]

Rivian has enough cash on hand to make it to R2 if they don't sell another R1 until it comes out in 2026 so they aren't going to be going out of business.

I hope you are right.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Let's "count backwards" on timeline and get some perspective shall we? As mentioned before, 10 years is normal gestation in the car industry for a new car, even if a scaled down one—it's not as easy as "honey, I shrunk the car!" because some things are already as small as they get. And, 5-6 is considered accelerated and exceptional.

Pre-production phase... Let's say it takes 2 years to line up all ducks for production, which would've taken place between early 2024 to early 2026. This time frame includes:

• Manufacturing engineering, finalizing engineering of all components and how all of these components are made & sourced and assembled together.
• Negotiating and securing contracts for all externally sourced parts/components
• Production line planning and construction. Buying, installing, programming and testing of all production machinery.
• Management of all supply lines. Logistics of shipping and stockpiling of parts/components ahead of production start.

Design phase (can't get to the pre-production phase without completing this):

• Let's say, at the earliest, they started around or soon after R1 concept reveal, that would have been late 2018. That's about 6 years ago from today, during which a global pandemic took place—which disrupted workflow of all businesses and over a million Americans met their end. And if we subtract the 2 years needed to be near production-ready (as they are now), that'd mean they'd only spent 4 years on design & product engineering.
• R2 first became part of the public consciousness during an Instagram AMA featuring RJ. That was June 2023. Let's say they started at the start of that year, that's just 2 years ago.
• During this phase Rivian also faced great financial challenges. Cost of R1 ramp. Cost of service expansion. Cost of Rivan's retail spaces. High interest rates for businesses and consumers alike. It also conducted multiple rounds of lay-offs. If you work for a living and had any business sense, you'd already know businesses behave this way when they believe financial trouble is assured if the do not act.

A billionaire—whom we all know to be full of hubris and prone to issue greatly inflated promises—once said humbly, "cars are hard". It's probably the truest thing he's ever confessed to. Given all of the challenges Rivian has faced and will be facing, I would have bet on a delay for R2. Yet, they continue to repeat "on-schedule", to which I remain slightly skeptical.

All ye who think they can launch R2 sooner... Please, for your own future prosperity, save your secret for when you launch your own car company.

Don't take what Rivian has done for granted. If it was easy, everyone else would be doing it. Many tried and failed. Just ask Henrick Fisker.

 

[shap]

All ye who think they can launch R2 sooner... Please, for your own future prosperity, save your secret for when you launch your own car company.

Once again. You missed my point. I did not say they can. I said they "should" to avoid bankruptcy/difficulties. But I agree with you that, technically they may not be ready for this. This will be a problem, as they will enter the market when there is a lot of competition, many brands will have US-based materials, including batteries, and unless tariffs with China go down (or they will source batteries from US), Rivian will have a big problem competing.

 

[zymolysis]

Rivian should have launched R1S first and with all cost savings of gen2 platform. Anyone with eyes can see SUVs have greater market demand.

If they had launched the R1S first, I would probably be driving a Lightning now. Sure, SUVs are a larger market - with more competition. There was no BEV pickup, when they announced the R1T, and it got Rivian an enormous amount of publicity.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

I keep saying it, keep getting batted down, but here goes again.

plain and simple. Rivian needs to switch to a Dealer model.

whether it is home grown or partnering with an established brand Rivian needs to admit defeat in the go-it-alone approach and partner up or sell franchise dealerships. The public has made its choice.

despite public polls claiming car dealers are deeply hated US consumers unfailingly choose using their own hard earned money to go to dealers. Politically there has been Zero success in causing states to drop dealer mandate laws. The discrepancy between polls/ focus groups and actual reality of dealer preference speaks volumes . With R2 coming a scary scenario couldn’t be more clear, Rivian is already months behind in Service backlog, and customers are not beating down the door for R1. Consumers need to be able to touch and test Drive vehicles. Tesla is the exception and should not be mistaken for a typical car manufacturer. It is centered on a cult of personality. Rivian is not.

 

[zymolysis]

He said they are only working 2-3 days a week until inventory comes down.

If this is true, there is no excuse for the long delays for replacement parts (not that I thought there was any acceptable excuse). Rivian is shooting itself in the foot, by continually pissing off the owners who are their brand ambassadors.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I keep saying it, keep getting batted down, but here goes again.

plain and simple. Rivian needs to switch to a Dealer model.

whether it is home grown or partnering with an established brand Rivian needs to admit defeat in the go-it-alone approach and partner up or sell franchise dealerships. The public has made its choice.

despite public polls claiming car dealers are deeply hated US consumers unfailingly choose using their own hard earned money to go to dealers. Politically there has been Zero success in causing states to drop dealer mandate laws. The discrepancy between polls/ focus groups and actual reality of dealer preference speaks volumes . With R2 coming a scary scenario couldn’t be more clear, Rivian is already months behind in Service backlog, and customers are not beating down the door for R1. Consumers need to be able to touch and test Drive vehicles. Tesla is the exception and should not be mistaken for a typical car manufacturer. It is centered on a cult of personality. Rivian is not.

This won't solve Rivian's service issues; it would be a step backward in the short term. If dealerships suddenly decided to sell Rivian all their techs would need to learn how to fix them and the supply chain would need to be engineered for them to get parts.

 

[Captblue]

The reason I heard was, for 2nd quarter changes….
similar but not as drastic as last year shutdown. Most Car Company have a few week of shutdown as they switch to a new model year.

 

[Golfer04]

Is this really true? What is the context? It may be true or absolutely bogus. So I will wait. I do think Rivian has an edge, given Tesla is not going anywhere from her.

I can tell you it is true. I live 40 minutes from the Normal plant. A Rivian engineer and an HR employee live in my subdivision. I got this info from a golf buddy's son who works on the floor (lives in Morton, IL). I can tell you how they feel. Scared.

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