US HOUSE LIKELY TO KILL EV TAX CREDIT, SPEAKER JOHNSON SAYS

[captainjp]

We actually produce more oil/petroleum than we consume in the US. We are the #1 oil producing nation but also the #1 in consumption. We export more oil than we import and the majority of our imported oil is Canadian.

Right. Key is the refining capacity

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[mkg3]

That’s for joint filers, but either way I didn’t ever consider 6 figure (or near 6 figure) vehicles until my income was very much in excess of those numbers

I agree with the notion that its not a good idea to get into a large debt for a depreciating asset, especially if one's income is such that the payments are a large percentage of monthly income.

That said, many people have large investments and it's not about income. Its about net worth and value proposition of owning a vehicle that costs 6 figures.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

We actually produce more oil/petroleum than we consume in the US. We are the #1 oil producing nation but also the #1 in consumption. We export more oil than we import and the majority of our imported oil is Canadian.

Anywhere to verify this data? Not saying you’re wrong …I just like to look at data

I do know that in 2020 the US did become a net petroleum exporter but that only lasted for two years as by 2022 we were back to being a net oil importer.

It actually shows that we are reducing our dependence on foreign oil which is good and net imports have been very low. When compared to say 20-30 years ago.

 

[Yossarian]

It's pretty clear that there is no comprehensive plan in place with respect to nearly everything that the present administration is doing. What is clear however, is that the push to get rid of energy tax credits generally, and the EV tax credit specifically, is something that will be done for other than economic reasons.

Estimates for the total cost of the IRA tax credits vary widely and to some extent, by political affiliation. If we take one of the more pessimistic predictions, that of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the addition to the Federal deficit over the next ten years is $666 billion, of which the EV tax credit is about $80 billion. While neither number is trivial, it's hard to argue that they are significant contributors to the deficit, particularly given that the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that the Administration is keen to see extended - and that is in the current Congressional budget resolution - will add $5.3 trillion to the deficit over the same period.

More puzzling however, is how to reconcile the actions of the Administration with respect to its several apparently conflicting policy objectives.

For example, we see executive orders aimed at fast tracking domestic rare earth production and seabed mining. The Administration is also actively considering direct US government investment in companies that mine and process critical minerals, and perhaps even the creation of US sovereign wealth fund to invest in domestic mining and processing of them. In addition, the Administration also recently signed an agreement with Ukraine that among other things, is intended to allow US access to their critical mineral deposits. These actions will certainly go a long way toward lessening our dependence on China for critical raw materials, but to what end?

The Administration states that its goal is to ensure that the critical minerals and rare earths required for national security purposes, such as the production of items needed for grid resiliency and for defense (e. g, military drones), are available and secure. That is important and laudable, but seems to overlook an hugely important economic factor. Most of the demand for critical minerals comes not from the production of national security related items but instead in from what the Administration calls "Green New Scam" products. By some estimates, EV production alone may account for upwards of 80% of the critical mineral demand, with much of the remaining balance being used in the production of items that are part of the nefarious "green economy" such as home solar arrays and battery storage systems.

This would seem to present mineral extraction and refining companies with a bit of dilemma: why should they make the costly investment to increase production of raw materials when there is an active campaign also in place to depress demand for the bulk of the products that use those critical materials? Of course, I'm no Ron Vara, so take my speculation with a grain of salt.

 

[SANZC02]

Anywhere to verify this data? Not saying you’re wrong …I just like to look at data

I do know that in 2020 the US did become a net petroleum exporter but that only lasted for two years as by 2022 we were back to being a net oil importer.

It actually shows that we are reducing our dependence on foreign oil which is good and net imports have been very low. When compared to say 20-30 years ago.

The latest figures I’ve seen were from 2023, it was true that we exported more than imported from 2019-2023.

The interesting part is that global concerns about inflation and recessions are dropping oil prices. They are hitting the $60 threshold which is number where it is no longer economical for the US to produce the oil.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

It's pretty clear that there is no comprehensive plan in place .......

Most of the demand for critical minerals comes not from the production of national security related items but instead in from what the Administration calls "Green New Scam" products. By some estimates, EV production alone may account for upwards of 80% of the critical mineral demand, with much of the remaining balance being used in the production of items that are part of the nefarious "green economy" such as home solar arrays and battery storage systems.

it's for all those tesla military vehicles

 

[Thedude]

Anywhere to verify this data? Not saying you’re wrong …I just like to look at data

I do know that in 2020 the US did become a net petroleum exporter but that only lasted for two years as by 2022 we were back to being a net oil importer.

It actually shows that we are reducing our dependence on foreign oil which is good and net imports have been very low. When compared to say 20-30 years ago.

The Energy Information Administration website is a surprisingly good source. There’s a ton of interesting data to dig around in on there ranging from very simple charts to full on research reports.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

You guys know your stuff. So I found this chart. This shows a breakdown of the different products

According to this we still import a lot of crude. We export a lot of natural gas and other "products". Though we are importing significantly less crude than in 2019.

What am I missing?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_NETI_DC_NUS-Z00_MBBLPD_A.htm

 

[SANZC02]

You guys know your stuff. So I found this chart. This shows a breakdown of the different products

According to this we still import a lot of crude. We export a lot of natural gas and other "products". Though we are importing significantly less crude than in 2019.

What am I missing?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_NETI_DC_NUS-Z00_MBBLPD_A.htm

It is an odd scenario where different blend/quality comes into play. What we exported isn’t the same grade as what we use so we export ours and import others. Here is a little on the explanation.

 

[Dave711]

In a way, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Subsidies like this one and the solar tax credit, artificially inflate the cost to the customer. Why wouldn't you raise the price by 27% or $7,500? If you know the customer is just going to get it back from the government?

I assume you can't afford an electric car.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

It is an odd scenario where different blend/quality comes into play. What we exported isn’t the same grade as what we use so we export ours and import others. Here is a little on the explanation.

when I look at that chart I see a lot of crude oil imported and a lot of other products. I’m not really talking about natural gas I’m talking crude oil. That chart doesn’t break down the type of crude oil it just shows the net imports which are a lot. They are using all the natural gas …to offset it which makes the numbers seem lower.

That’s what I’m seeing in that chart.

Regardless if we produce enough to meet our consumption if we consumed less we could export more.

I see the move to EVs being more about cleaner air and energy independence than anything else. Our EVs don’t care if the fuel is from Coal or from hydro they run just the same.

The world I hope my daughter sees in her lifetime should be one where we aren’t strapped to any one type of fuel or natural resource (aside from water of course).

 

[Bullwinkle]

Has anyone on a public stage called Trump's attention to this just to see what he says. I mean..... this guy has to know the those vehicles are a massive financial threat to our industry.

Everyone focuses on the security aspect and that alone allows him to wiggle out of acknowledging the real threat here.

This guy has to know...hmmmm.

 

[Bullwinkle]

Nope. None of that is true, but that is my opinion. And since neither of us can predict the future, all we have are opinions.

I happen to believe we can compete with China if we put them on the ropes. Right now they are under the ropes and falling onto the concrete outside the ring with the tariffs we have imposed on them. Their entire economy is on the verge of collapse. Ours is far, far better. We will win. Definitely.

I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

It is such a complicated situation. Their lax worker laws, their lax environmental laws, direct state subsidies to EV and battery companies, bribing, cheating...I've built stuff there since the 90s.

The best bet is to directly subsidize US manufacturing through direct consumer rebates...NOT through tariffs. This administration's yo-yo policies--tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs on, tariffs partially on--cause uncertainty. Markets, stocks, and economies do not do well with uncertainty. Serious economists are not fans of tariffs.

 

[White Shadow]

Nope. None of that is true, but that is my opinion. And since neither of us can predict the future, all we have are opinions.

I happen to believe we can compete with China if we put them on the ropes. Right now they are under the ropes and falling onto the concrete outside the ring with the tariffs we have imposed on them. Their entire economy is on the verge of collapse. Ours is far, far better. We will win. Definitely.

I believe we can and will beat them as long as the playing field is fair. And finally, it is. Nobody can beat us if the playing field is fair. Nobody.

What? China's economy exceeded expectations for the first quarter of 2025. Their target was 5% growth and they beat that. They aren't on the verge of collapsing.

 

[NY_Rob]

What? China's economy exceeded expectations for the first quarter of 2025. Their target was 5% growth and they beat that. They aren't on the verge of collapsing.

Unless you watch Youtube....

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