Not looking too good for continued operations beyond 2025

[Kevlar]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

Chart shows that Tesla is the EV Company that has earned more than it has spent and it took a lot of time. Rivian really doesn’t look good.

The chart depicts the aggregate free cash flow for each native EV manufacturer. Meaning that if they burned $500m in their first year and $750M in their second year, then the chart would show them at a negative $1.25B. Tesla’s line shows them at a positive $16B net net over about 17 years or so, while Rivian is at a negative $23B after about seven years and still trending down. Yikes

Seems to take 8-10 year range of operating to improve. Perhaps all Rivian needs is a bit more time…

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[ThumprMN]

Sounds like you’ve got all the Information you need to sell and get out while you can. Cheers!!

 

[TexasBob]

Chart shows that Tesla is the EV Company that has earned more than it has spent and it took a lot of time. Rivian really doesn’t look good.

The chart depicts the aggregate free cash flow for each native EV manufacturer. Meaning that if they burned $500m in their first year and $750M in their second year, then the chart would show them at a negative $1.25B. Tesla’s line shows them at a positive $16B net net over about 17 years or so, while Rivian is at a negative $23B after about seven years and still trending down. Yikes

Seems to take 8-10 year range of operating to improve. Perhaps all Rivian needs is a bit more time…

Odd resurrected dead post. The FT curiously left out BYD and Geely (except two of the worst performing Geely divisions - Lotus and Polestar).

In any case, this is why Tesla is absolutely worth a solid $50B - $80B market cap.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

My take is we all knew Rivian was more of high burn, get things going quickly and try to get ahead of the curve. Example, launching 3 products nearly simultaneously and investing heavily in their software to achieve full vertical integration and own the software stack (similar to Tesla)

Rivian's costs to get to market went up significantly due to Covid and it's knock on effects, It's only been the last couple years that we've finally somewhat past that challenge.

It wasn't until Tesla introduced it's budget, high volume Model 3, that the company really turned itself around and took off. While I don't expect the same OMG Model 3 moment for Rivian's R2 etc, I do expect that low cost driver to start to make a meaningful contribution to the companies balance sheet going forward.

Lucid in a lot of ways has done a similar thing, just over a limited product lineup. they invested very very heavily in really taking certain key components in an EV and making them as efficient and cost effective as possible. Unfortunately in both companies cases, it takes time for those investments to start to bear fruit and bring that ROI.

As RJ has said often and heavily paraphrasing, "The R1 series is Rivians handshake with the world, its continued success will come across several form factors. But each of those will continue to carry Rivian's Adventure theme"

One thing I am genuinely curious about, is if and when Rivian will start Rivian Energy, or some similar named sub company within the Rivian brand. RJ has touched on and even did a Rivian video about Rivian repurposing used packs and turning them into scalable grid storage solutions etc.


Edit*
When the 180kWh max pack was consistently being delayed, I assumed one of the reasons may have been a result of this long term Rivian strategy, keep the form factors the same no matter what the packs rating is, that way bundled packaging stays the same.

 

[JayinNJ]

There is a reason why we didn't start an EV car company. No sane person would try. It is extremely risky, and you will lose/spend a lot of money before you ever see positive returns.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

There is a reason why we didn't start an EV car company. No sane person would try. It is extremely risky, and you will lose/spend a lot of money before you ever see positive returns.

But lots of people, armed with a keyboard and knowledge to operate it, think they too could start one but also run it better. They don't even say they stayed at a Holiday Inn once.

 

[s4wrxttcs]

Chart shows that Tesla is the EV Company that has earned more than it has spent and it took a lot of time. Rivian really doesn’t look good.

The chart depicts the aggregate free cash flow for each native EV manufacturer. Meaning that if they burned $500m in their first year and $750M in their second year, then the chart would show them at a negative $1.25B. Tesla’s line shows them at a positive $16B net net over about 17 years or so, while Rivian is at a negative $23B after about seven years and still trending down. Yikes

Seems to take 8-10 year range of operating to improve. Perhaps all Rivian needs is a bit more time…

Sadly this isn't inflation corrected but its an interesting chart.

 

[cohall]

OP stated that he cancelled his order well over a year ago and "dodged a bullet"

Then comes back a year later to shitpost the company. That's just a sad way to live your life.

 

[captainjp]

OP stated that he cancelled his order well over a year ago and "dodged a bullet"

Then comes back a year later to shitpost the company. That's just a sad way to live your life.

Dude obvi has a short position and is trying to manipulate the market

 

[VSG]

its an interesting chart.

Yes, interesting how it shows Fisker and Canoo doing so much better than Rivian. LOL.

Let's face it, the OP was wrong two years ago, and time has shown he's still wrong. Rivian has plenty of cash to make it to the R2 release - that's not in question any longer (and IMO wasn't even in question two years ago, but that's another topic...). The R2 will determine if a high multiple characteristic of a growth company is justified or whether Rivian will continue as a low-volume specialty vehicle company.

Cancelled my order and got my deposit back. Been a long journey and failed in execution. I feel like I dodged a bullet.

That was a year ago. Seems to me the OP has some ulterior motive for reviving this thread ... perhaps wanting validation for his decision to pass on what has proven to be a fantastic vehicle. With his 2019 pre-order, he could have been enjoying his for the past three years like I have, rather than sulking and trying to cast aspersions, which has been his only "contribution" to these forums since then.

 

[mkg3]

Chart shows that Tesla is the EV Company that has earned more than it has spent and it took a lot of time. Rivian really doesn’t look good.

The chart depicts the aggregate free cash flow for each native EV manufacturer. Meaning that if they burned $500m in their first year and $750M in their second year, then the chart would show them at a negative $1.25B. Tesla’s line shows them at a positive $16B net net over about 17 years or so, while Rivian is at a negative $23B after about seven years and still trending down. Yikes

Seems to take 8-10 year range of operating to improve. Perhaps all Rivian needs is a bit more time…

This is an interesting plot. I assume time zero is when they first started the current business. Someone mentioned inflation adjusted but frankly, its rather small impact compared to the total magnitude of dollars, even though they all started at different years.

What is more impactful is that since the plot includes Chines owned auto companies, we cannot tell or know if we are seeing government subsidies and exchange range fluctuations That would be even greater impact than inflation since it average about 3%/yr over the last 20 years or so.

I would disagree about the timeframe argument. It is event driven and not time driven. In the case of Tesla, the initial uptick is the initial Model 3 deliveries and the hockey stick phenomena is the China moment when they started building and selling in China.

Rivian moment needs to be the delivery of R2, then their global export moment in a large market (economy.g., China and/or India). It will take a different vision than what currently being shared by RJ and company. Instead of focusing on GA plant for R3, I would focus on production facility abroad to make and sell R2/R3, to gain access to greater addressable market.

 

[captainjp]

I would focus on production facility abroad to make and sell R2/R3, to gain access to greater addressable market.

lol.
Oh yeah? Is that what you did with your successful car company? Leave the big decisions and company direction to the big boys.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Chart shows that Tesla is the EV Company that has earned more than it has spent and it took a lot of time. Rivian really doesn’t look good.

The chart depicts the aggregate free cash flow for each native EV manufacturer. Meaning that if they burned $500m in their first year and $750M in their second year, then the chart would show them at a negative $1.25B. Tesla’s line shows them at a positive $16B net net over about 17 years or so, while Rivian is at a negative $23B after about seven years and still trending down. Yikes

Seems to take 8-10 year range of operating to improve. Perhaps all Rivian needs is a bit more time…

Wow, not looking good for Rivian past... *checks notes* 2027!

 

[mkg3]

lol.
Oh yeah? Is that what you did with your successful car company? Leave the big decisions and company direction to the big boys.

So far, on any metrics or measurements, Rivian is not a successful car company yet. It's treading water with a limited runway by so called "the big boys". More of the same pretty much assures similar future outcomes.

You and I, we're all armchair quarterbacks on this subject aren't we.... We just have different backgrounds and experiences to base our observations and opinions on.

 

[SANZC02]

I always question the motive (not really OPs is obvious) when people cherry pick something negative and portray it as the end all.

Not sure what the true value of that chart really is, all it is doing is accumulating free cash flow reported over time. I think debt and available cash is more important, as of March 30th Rivian is reporting 6 billion in debt (Tesla in comparison is 13.3 billion) and 8.5 billion in liquidity (7.2 billion in cash and cash equivalent).

Looking at that chart Tesla bottom appears to be right before the Model 3 in 2016 at 12.5 billion, adjusted for inflation it would be 16.6 billion today.

My positive take is the loss is trending up in the last 2 years. They still have lots of work to do things are looking up. After averaging down over the last couple of years my Rivian holdings are actually in plus territory.

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