Anybody preorder recently? Was there a credit card option? Asking for Barclay's

[mkg3]

The biggest driver is the announced starting prices. CT and Ford had $40k starting prices, and the meat of the population bell curve lives in that $40-$60k price range that Rivian isn't capturing. They still wouldn't have had the recognition, but if the R1T started at $40k, they would have multiples of the reservations they currently have.

Tesla has reported reapeated by many outlets that the vast majority of their CT reservation is the try-motor (now quad) at the top of the price range. I don't know anything about the Ford's reservation composition since they have not reported but they have implied that fleet sales for the Pro (bottom of the lineup) model would be prioritized early on.

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[mkg3]

Put in a reservation end of November. Use my BoA Visa.
There was an option for a bank transfer as well, but I get about 2.5% cash back.. so Visa. ;-)

I used ApplePay and got 2& back. Didn't even have to fill out anything. Configure and go!

 

[mkg3]

Since when did CT triple to 3m??? According to that graph, they plateaued six months ago and the answer is never. They had 1.3m as of late November.

I don't know about plateauing but 1.2M was the number I recall. That said, the recent quad motor report and video footage of CT running around probably spiked more orders.

Expect significant update at the end of Jan at the next earnings call.

 

[Pherdnut]

Even still, what value is this adding to the discourse? All three companies have already shared estimates of their total preorder numbers. We don’t need some crappy credit card analysis to tell us that.

That was the original thing I found odd about it.

 

[DuckTruck]

As @fotoflux pointed out, if Carl Quintanilla had his turds in a herd, he may have rightly stated "credit card data show that new-to-the-market $RIVN has almost as much in deposits for its R1T and R1S models than $TSLA has for its oddly-shaped Cybertruck and 118-year old Ford has for its less than exciting F-150 Lightning. Rivian’s deposit funds are fully 80% of EV market-leader Tesla’s Cybertruck deposit amounts ..”

Of course, I might be a little biased about this.

 

[mkg3]

As @fotoflux pointed out, if Carl Quintanilla had his turds in a herd, he may have rightly stated "credit card data show that new-to-the-market $RIVN has almost as much in deposits for its R1T and R1S models than $TSLA has for its oddly-shaped Cybertruck and 118-year old Ford has for its less than exciting F-150 Lightning. Rivian’s deposit funds are fully 80% of EV market-leader Tesla’s Cybertruck deposit amounts ..”

Of course, I might be a little biased about this.

I don't understand this post.

Are you saying that CT at 1.2M preorder = 120M in deposit at 100/each is close to what Rivian has at 1000/each? If so Rivian would have to have almost 120,000 reservations. At 60,000 is 60M...

We'll find out tomorrow but I bet its closer to 60K than 120K. Maybe as high as 75K,

 

[Dbeglor]

I don't understand this post.

Are you saying that CT at 1.2M preorder = 120M in deposit at 100/each is close to what Rivian has at 1000/each? If so Rivian would have to have almost 120,000 reservations. At 60,000 is 60M...

We'll find out tomorrow but I bet its closer to 60K than 120K. Maybe as high as 75K,

Yes, but to be specific, he's saying it amounts to 80% of CT's total reservation deposits, because 8% of reservations but 10x the required deposit amount.

IF this data were accurate, it would imply 96,000 reservations for Rivian total (R1T and R1S, no way to ascertain the mix).

 

[fotoflux]

It is highly probable that Rivian has 100k orders by now. the IPO created a lot of buzz. the Rivian brand is still relatively unknown. Press coverage at this point can drastically increase reservation volume.

 

[DuckTruck]

Perhaps I misread Carl's quote. As others have indicated here, the Tesla and Ford deposits are only $100 each opposed to Rivian's $1,000 requirement. I was simply commenting on the fact that, if we're talking dollars deposited, rather than the number of deposits, that means that Rivian has 80% of the deposit amount of the Tesla's and Ford's, rather than only 8%.

Of course, the proof in the pudding will be the conversion rate. I'd be surprised if the $100 deposits convert at the same percentage as they do for Rivian. I think with tens time the skin in the game, Rivian reservations will convert at a higher rate. As always, time will tell.

If I'm wrong in my reading of Carl's quote, I apologize. Please feel free to let me know your thoughts.

 

[ChrissyOne]

I'll believe in the reality of CT pre-orders when they've demonstrated that they can build a windshield wiper.

 

[mkg3]

It is highly probable that Rivian has 100k orders by now. the IPO created a lot of buzz. the Rivian brand is still relatively unknown. Press coverage at this point can drastically increase reservation volume.

Given that Rivian had 55k reservations at the end of October, they would have to nearly double (2x) in 6 weeks since. And we are talking about $70K~$80K vehicle purchase (no lease has been offered yet). That's roughly 7500 vehicle reservations/week or over a 1000 R1T/S per day for 6 weeks straight.

Most people, I believe, are looking at all the EV options coming to the market and, while different sizes and capabilities, waiting for some dust to settle before committing to any vehicle.

I fully understand the excitement herein, with the delivery starting and IPO and all that, but vast majority of people see Rivian as a new brand without any track record.

Let say that $1K deposit is a whole lot more commitment than $100 (personally, I completely disagree with this notion because if one is committing to buy a vehicle in this price range, $1k is noise level of cost, just as $100 is). If true, then more people are hesitant to place the funding just because publicity made them aware of the brand.

 

[ChrissyOne]

Let say that $1K deposit is a whole lot more commitment than $100 (personally, I completely disagree with this notion because if one is committing to buy a vehicle in this price range, $1k is noise level of cost, just as $100 is). If true, then more people are hesitant to place the funding just because publicity made them aware of the brand.

There are legions of Tesla (read: Musk) fans that have reserved multiple Cybertrucks just to inflate the pre-order numbers. Fercrissakes they'll all go buy Dogecoin just because he said so. They are not committed to anything but helping their TSLA positions. AND - none of those pre-order holders have any idea what they're getting because Cybertruck is not a real thing yet.
When it's really tested and reviewed, then we might have a better idea of how many people will actually buy one. Today it is still just a meme.

 

[ads75]

I do wonder where the pre-order process will go in the future. I know part of it is marketing, part of it gets a potential buyer to get excited about something, part of it is a free loan to a manufacturer. I do wonder how many preorders will get turned to sales, and if that will leave some manufacturers feeling burned if they don't think they get a high take rate. And its possible some people will sour on a preorder process if it takes too long or the dealer they selected decide to add a markup (not a concern for Telsa or Rivian, lets hope Rivian doesn't raise prices too much. Having a $100 deposit is relatively low to get a spot in line and keeping an option open down the line, given todays car market, but a few years ago most wouldn't even consider it. I currently have "spots" for a Hyundai Ioniq 5, a Cadillac Lyriq, and a R1T (maybe R1S instead). By no means do I plan on buying all 3, I just plan on buying 1 (probably the R1T, but I like the Lyriq and its cheaper). The first two were only $100. I doubt I would have put the money down if they were $1000 each. I kind of regret not doing the Lighting or Cybertruck, because they were only $100 also. I will may go Silverado/Ram when they become available, just to have options if I need them. In todays market, it seems like if you don't need the $100, sit and wait on it until the vehicle becomes available, and then make a choice. But if they were each $1,000, I would think more before putting money down.

 

[mkg3]

There are legions of Tesla (read: Musk) fans that have reserved multiple Cybertrucks just to inflate the pre-order numbers. Fercrissakes they'll all go buy Dogecoin just because he said so. They are not committed to anything but helping their TSLA positions. AND - none of those pre-order holders have any idea what they're getting because Cybertruck is not a real thing yet.
When it's really tested and reviewed, then we might have a better idea of how many people will actually buy one. Today it is still just a meme.

You might be right but what would so called fanboys have to gain by inflating preorder numbers up to 1.2M?

Almost everyone I know that owns Tesla has either another or planning to replace with another Tesla. Since CT is really a lifestyle truck and probably not a working truck, it would sell to the same people who bought Model X/Y.

The thing is, Tesla will deliver +/- 900K vehicles worldwide this year. Most definitely will break 1M vehicles next year. Are you saying that most of those people are meme?

You're pretty clear as to where you stand about Tesla and Musk, but if you look at it objectively, and look at the numbers, it doesn't matter what you or I think about the CT. The only thing that matters is that they will convert minimum of 25% of those reservations at the worst case scenario (I believe they will convert greater than 50%). That equates to 300K CTs. You can say they are all fanboys and maybe they are. So what. Its 300K units sold.

The way I'm thinking about the R1T/S is the same way Tesla offered Model S and X prior to 3 and Y. Rivian needs to establish itself, which they are well on their way, with higher end vehicle and introduce entry-level SUV and truck R2T/S in a couple of years.

Meanwhile Tesla will continue with their bread and butter 3 and Y, and maybe CT.

As a footnote, I do not have any other reservations than R1S. Not interested in CT, eF150 or any trucks.

 

[ChrissyOne]

You're pretty clear as to where you stand about Tesla and Musk, but if you look at it objectively, and look at the numbers, it doesn't matter what you or I think about the CT. The only thing that matters is that they will convert minimum of 25% of those reservations at the worst case scenario (I believe they will convert greater than 50%). That equates to 300K CTs. You can say they are all fanboys and maybe they are. So what. Its 300K units sold.

To be clear, I think that Tesla is a good company, and will continue to be a major player in EVs, but it will not maintain its majority share of the EV market when everyone is making them. They have a good head start, but they have to get their quality up from second to last if they're going to survive against VW.
I think Elon Musk is a con man and a pathological liar, but that is a separate issue. I think Tesla will succeed, and probably better, without him.

My problem with the Cybertruck is just how wholly stupid it is from a product standpoint. No one that buys a truck today is concerned if the windows will stand up to a steel ball hitting them. In fact, side windows are designed to break ON PURPOSE, so you can get out if the door is wedged in a crash. No truck buyer goes into a deanship with a sledge hammer to see if they can dent the doors. These are not things that actual truck customers care about. They care about things like how practical it is to drive daily, to take on a camping trip, to haul lumber, to take rock-crawling. Tesla has not shown how it does any of those things, so we just don't know. They have done their same old trick of 0-60 times, which, as I have said, is impressive when you're the only EV on the planet. But soon every hum-drum EV will be able to do that.

Have you seen the camper they showed us? Let's take a good long look.

Please tell me what the fuck this is. Because it's not anything that will ever exist on planet earth. This is a rendering that is impossible to build. It's going to telescope up like that? How does the door work? The only way it can work on such a design it to roll up like a loading door. That's how you're going to get in and out of your camper? Are you effing kidding me?

This is a vapor product. And because of the design of the bed, you won't be able to use anything else. I mentioned the windshield wiper earlier a bit flippantly, but think about that - how are they going to solve the problem of engineering a giant wiper arm for that windscreen? Where are you going to get a replacement blade for it? These seems like petty technical concerns, but that's what separates a real product from a concept car. The Cybertruck we have seen thus far has been a concept.

And I set aside other details, like the shape of it. I pity the poor cyclist that gets cut off by one of these and hits that back corner. That exact thing happened to me, and I'm happy I was impaled on that sharp edge.

Go back and watch the launch video. When they put the quad in the back, Elon said "That's the adaptive suspension" as he pointed to the bottomed-out rear end. No it bloody isn't. What the hell is that adapting to? It's bottomed out. That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

(Let's just revel for another moment in the image of Elon and his busted-ass truck above)

It's true, the Cybertruck might not be for truck people. Because I think truck people will have enough sense to buy something practical. It's for Elon and Tesla fans who think the future looks like a movie from the early 80s. People thought the PT Cruiser was really cool at first, too.

But styling aside, we have NO IDEA how it will handle off-road yet. The Rivian famously has many thousands of miles of testing over the last few years. Doesn't it make you wonder why the Cybertruck hasn't? Yes, there have been production delays, but that should not hold up a solid, pre-production example. Rivian made plenty of these before they went into full production. So too should have Tesla if this was going to be a real thing.

Of course, I could be wrong, and it's going to be amazing and do everything better than the Rivian. I have just seen zero evidence of that.

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