R2 update per Q2 2025 earnings report

[Great Gatsby]

We love our R1S LE and I technically reserved my R2 before it rolled out on stage as soon as the website opened. I am hoping for a factory pickup this time. That said, as much coin as I am willing to muster toward it, it will be a second vehicle (actually 4th when you consider some older vehicles the teens are driving) and I wouldn't be able to handle much above 50k.

I get they want to maximize profits and they can't do the bare bones version for 45k out of the gate, but if it comes out over 50K every headline will be about how Rivian's "$45k compact EV is actually $5xK" and the press will be pretty bad I think. ESPECIALLY if the Fords that get unveilied in a week are as cheap as they say they are going to be (that's a big IF on product and price for Ford of course)

IMO the R2 pricing needs to mirror the Bronco's pricing almost exactly which is starting at 46k, most are 50K and then you can get the loaded up 60+K. They don't have to start with the 46, but they CAN'T start with the 60+

I don't think it will be that bad if the first model released hovers around 50-60k. The refreshed Model Y Launch edition was close to $60k and the world didn't end. I foresee something similar given how the new Quad was unveiled and they start with an R2 LE that is fully loaded close to $60k but the key will be releasing the cheaper variants within a "reasonable" timeframe. Given how much they are scaling production and understand the importance of this moment, I venture we'd get the R2 LE early 2026 and the cheaper variants by mid-late Q2 of that year. Fingers crossed it plays out that way anyway.

Even if Ford pulls off a cheaper EV, that is likely competing with the EV Equinox of the world on price and not this. Personally, even if cheaper, I'd go with the R2 given how dedicated Rivian has been to improving their software, specially compared to Ford. And let's be honest, if there was a Bronco EV, it would not be at $45k to start.

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[Great Gatsby]

Very much appreciate what has been said. When that was said, the EV topology was very different with incentives and the market demand for EVs.

I don't doubt what you are saying. I am saying something different. The original comment was made with the majority of peoples's purchasing decisions and the cost of vehicles.

Vast majority of people are not enthusiasts or those that are looking for particular features. Yes, agree that there is a quite a bit of difference, if one is looking for size, seating and ultimate performance. The question is that most people who wants tri/quad-motor R1S is looking for "ultimate" SUV vehicle or something close that costs $40K less.

Oh, certainly. This is very much going to be Rivian's vehicle for "most" people, given this class sells the most globally (as the Rav4 and Model Y are best sellers worldwide). I don't foresee most people cross shopping an R1S with an R2 was all I was saying. I think there will very much be a shopper for the R1S even with the R2 around, and glad Rivian has not left the R1 platform fall behind enough or made the R2 so good that they bump into each other.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

They have very much advertised a tri-motor variant. It would also not "kill" the tri and quad R1S. They have done a good job at differentiating the vehicles. Air suspension, towing capacity, vehicle size (3rd row), automated frunk, range - all things the R1S will have and/or do better. Makes sense that the R2 can likely be their playground for performance given its smaller size.

This is, IMO, why they need to be careful with pricing. If the top line R2 that is first available is over $65k, I'd probably just get a base R1S G2 or a lightly used R1S instead of the R2 to replace my R1T. I am quite sure the margins are much better for Rivian on a top tier R2 compared with an entry level R1S. I think they likely lose money or barely break even on a base R1S.

 

[Great Gatsby]

This is, IMO, why they need to be careful with pricing. If the top line R2 that is first available is over $65k, I'd probably just get a base R1S G2 or a lightly used R1S instead of the R2 to replace my R1T. I am quite sure the margins are much better for Rivian on a top tier R2 compared with an entry level R1S. I think they likely lose money or barely break even on a base R1S.

$65k would be a good ceiling. A $10k-ish cushion between the highest R2 and lowest R1 would make sense to keep the vehicles well differentiated.

 

[DuoRivian]

I assumed they would start with the tip mode first because they will be ramping up in 2026 and I would be surprised if they did more than 50k volume in year 2. They will be ramping up to 150-180k at peak at Normal.

 

[voxel]

I'm not shocked that they are starting with high trim levels to drive ASP up, but I do think there are diminishing returns there if the ASP is so high that it reduces demand beyond maximum production capacity and/or cannibalizes sales from low end R1 models. I'm hopeful that there's a moderate gap in price between a top end R2 and an entry level R1.

I think they will struggle to move everything they build in the high 60 to low 70 thousand price range, I just don't think there is a huge market for a 2 row compact SUV at $65k and up even if it's a high performance variant. I'm hopeful that R2 tops out in the low 60s for the Tri-Motor Ascent.

Personally I see the R1 being discontinued in two years less. Same with the Tesla Model S/X. The volumes are so low and sales have declined on the R1T and R1S that’s it’s becoming irrelevant. Folks seem to love test driving it but sales figures show they are balking. It’s not even a profitable line so Rivian will nuke it to save cash when the R2 is in full swing.

 

[voxel]

$65k would be a good ceiling. A $10k-ish cushion between the highest R2 and lowest R1 would make sense to keep the vehicles well differentiated.

The Jeep Wagoneer S is about the same size and is priced at $75K fully loaded but with $15-20K incentives and they still don’t sell well.

 

[mkhuffman]

Personally I see the R1 being discontinued in two years less. Same with the Tesla Model S/X. The volumes are so low and sales have declined on the R1T and R1S that’s it’s becoming irrelevant. Folks seem to love test driving it but sales figures show they are balking. It’s not even a profitable line so Rivian will nuke it to save cash when the R2 is in full swing.

Hopefully when they have a higher volume product some of the economies of scale benefit the lower volume models so that they do make money selling a $100k truck. I will be extremely disappointed if they stop selling the R1.

 

[Great Gatsby]

Personally I see the R1 being discontinued in two years less. Same with the Tesla Model S/X. The volumes are so low and sales have declined on the R1T and R1S that’s it’s becoming irrelevant. Folks seem to love test driving it but sales figures show they are balking. It’s not even a profitable line so Rivian will nuke it to save cash when the R2 is in full swing.

I doubt it. Specially so quickly. It is the best selling SUV in the state of California. I think we'd likely see another major improvement or gen3 before they get cancelled altogether and the release of the R2 and R3 should benefit the R1 in terms of economies of scale.

 

[voxel]

I doubt it. Specially so quickly. It is the best selling SUV in the state of California. I think we'd likely see another major improvement or gen3 before they get cancelled altogether and the release of the R2 and R3 should benefit the R1 in terms of economies of scale.

Not even close.

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/08/03/tesla-still-stands-alone-in-california-ev-market/

The (declining) sales volumes for the R1S and R1T are too small to sustain a company like Rivian. The Model S/X are side projects (even with economies of scales trickled down from the 3/Y) for Tesla with sales so pathetic low. There’s already talk of those two being axed since they stopped taking orders from China and Europe.

IMO R1 line needs to double annual sales to be viable. And the R2 needs to be $55K fairly loaded to compete with mainstream SUVs. If it moves up to the $65K+ range it will compete with the LandCruiser or GX which have much smaller sales volume than say a Telluride or Pilot or Grand Highlander.

 

[Great Gatsby]

Not even close.

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/08/03/tesla-still-stands-alone-in-california-ev-market/

The (declining) sales volumes for the R1S and R1T are too small to sustain a company like Rivian. The Model S/X are side projects (even with economies of scales trickled down from the 3/Y) for Tesla with sales so pathetic low. There’s already talk of those two being axed since they stopped taking orders from China and Europe.

IMO R1 line needs to double annual sales to be viable. And the R2 needs to be $55K fairly loaded to compete with mainstream SUVs. If it moves up to the $65K+ range it will compete with the LandCruiser or GX which have much smaller sales volume than say a Telluride or Pilot or Grand Highlander.

My apologies. I recall I heard back something about this recently, but based on my latest research it sounds like it was the best selling SUV over $70k in the state but even finding data on this seems shaky.

I also don't think the situation is as doom and gloom as the Model S/X are for Tesla. Rivian's focus, thankfully, still seems to be on making cars while Tesla seems ok with axing their vehicles and pivot more towards AI/Self-Driving. I also don't think sales have peaked for the R1S. Most people still don't know what Rivian is or what they have to offer. I think with the R2 being more ubiquitous once they arrive that will raise more awareness of Rivian as a brand and hopefully get people looking into the lineup as a whole. But just speculating, anything could happen. I just don't foresee the end of the R1S anytime soon. Maybe wishful thinking on my end, but there is a lot they can still do with the platform to keep it fresh in this everchanging market.

 

[mkhuffman]

My apologies. I recall I heard back something about this recently, but based on my latest research it sounds like it was the best selling SUV over $70k in the state but even finding data on this seems shaky.

I also don't think the situation is as doom and gloom as the Model S/X are for Tesla. Rivian's focus, thankfully, still seems to be on making cars while Tesla seems ok with axing their vehicles and pivot more towards AI/Self-Driving. I also don't think sales have peaked for the R1S. Most people still don't know what Rivian is or what they have to offer. I think with the R2 being more ubiquitous once they arrive that will raise more awareness of Rivian as a brand and hopefully get people looking into the lineup as a whole. But just speculating, anything could happen. I just don't foresee the end of the R1S anytime soon. Maybe wishful thinking on my end, but there is a lot they can still do with the platform to keep it fresh in this everchanging market.

I tend to agree with your assessment. The Model X is not a real SUV. It is a big hatchback. And the Model S is a sedan. Rivian's products are much better positioned for what people want, IMO.

In my case, they got me to buy my first pickup truck. I never even considered one until Rivian came along. And the R1S is a proper SUV. Both the R1S and R1T are in the Jeep/Bronco vein, with off road capabilities people seem to want (and rarely use). I think there are a lot of factors hurting R1 sales, but product design and approach is not one of them.

The cost of batteries really needs to come down. I think R2 production will help with that, as well as the relationship with VW. My secret hope is Rivian will get a solid-state battery sooner because of the VW relationship. That would be a huge differentiator if they could get it first (or nearly first).

 

[mkg3]

Personally I see the R1 being discontinued in two years less. Same with the Tesla Model S/X. The volumes are so low and sales have declined on the R1T and R1S that’s it’s becoming irrelevant. Folks seem to love test driving it but sales figures show they are balking. It’s not even a profitable line so Rivian will nuke it to save cash when the R2 is in full swing.

Keep in mind that one of the biggest reasons why R1 is losing money on the every vehicle they make is because of the factory utilization costs. In other words, because they only make R1 and EDV, all the factory infrastructure costs are spread on these vehicles. Once R2 starts, I realize there are added costs unique to R2, it can be spread over larger quantities.

If I had to guess, Rivian would probably keep R1 for symbolic reasons more than financial reasons. As such, they will work to get cost neutral and that's about it.

 

[voxel]

I tend to agree with your assessment. The Model X is not a real SUV. It is a big hatchback. And the Model S is a sedan. Rivian's products are much better positioned for what people want, IMO.

In my case, they got me to buy my first pickup truck. I never even considered one until Rivian came along. And the R1S is a proper SUV. Both the R1S and R1T are in the Jeep/Bronco vein, with off road capabilities people seem to want (and rarely use). I think there are a lot of factors hurting R1 sales, but product design and approach is not one of them.

The cost of batteries really needs to come down. I think R2 production will help with that, as well as the relationship with VW. My secret hope is Rivian will get a solid-state battery sooner because of the VW relationship. That would be a huge differentiator if they could get it first (or nearly first).

I argue they went backwards with Gen2 + dual motors (the off-road results by reviewers have been laughable) and I've seen fewer Rivians on the trails here in FL.

The R1S competes with the higher priced "lifestyle mommy-SUVs" like the LandCruiser and GX which also come with street tires and questionable off-road abilities.

 

[VandalSibs]

My apologies. I recall I heard back something about this recently, but based on my latest research it sounds like it was the best selling SUV over $70k in the state but even finding data on this seems shaky.

I also don't think the situation is as doom and gloom as the Model S/X are for Tesla. Rivian's focus, thankfully, still seems to be on making cars while Tesla seems ok with axing their vehicles and pivot more towards AI/Self-Driving. I also don't think sales have peaked for the R1S. Most people still don't know what Rivian is or what they have to offer. I think with the R2 being more ubiquitous once they arrive that will raise more awareness of Rivian as a brand and hopefully get people looking into the lineup as a whole. But just speculating, anything could happen. I just don't foresee the end of the R1S anytime soon. Maybe wishful thinking on my end, but there is a lot they can still do with the platform to keep it fresh in this everchanging market.

The stat you are looking for keeps getting mentioned by RJ in the investor calls. He says the same for Washington State too....

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