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scooby

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Didn't say it was coming to an end. But the economy is showing the warning signs that if something is not changed, we will hit a 2008 situation soon. I won't go into things as that will bring in politics. But there are caveats when it comes to your statistics that hide bigger problems underneath them. For example, the unemployment rate does not include people who have given up looking for a job due to being discouraged by the job market as unemployment only counts people actively looking for a job, the sharp increases of certain demographics having unemployment, people who are underemployed, and people who are only part time but get counted as employed even though they can't support themselves, and the sharp increase of gig economy workers because they either can't find a job or their current job doesn't cover everything and need supplemental income). If a large chunk is "employed" but can't support themselves, the unemployment rate in the end doesn't mean much as an indicator for a healthy economy.
In addition, steaminggoats reply, one of the most glaring concerns is the August 2025 move by the Orange Lard in Chief.

Replacements in the BLS During Trump's Second TermYes, President Trump has replaced at least one key figure at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during his second term. The most prominent and documented change occurred in early August 2025, shortly after the release of a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. Below is a summary of the key details: Key Replacement
  • Position: BLS Commissioner (the agency's top leadership role, responsible for overseeing the collection and publication of economic data like jobs reports, inflation metrics, and the Consumer Price Index).
  • Fired: Erika McEntarfer (Biden appointee, confirmed in 2024 for a four-year term).
    • Date of Firing: August 1, 2025.
    • Reason Given by Trump: Allegations (without evidence) that she manipulated or "rigged" jobs data for political purposes to benefit Democrats, including claims of "faked" numbers to boost Kamala Harris's election chances. Trump cited routine downward revisions to prior months' data as proof of incompetence or bias.
  • Replacement Nominee: E.J. Antoni (nominated August 11, 2025).
    • Background: Chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation; previously at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Holds a PhD in economics and has taught labor economics and related courses. Contributor to Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint for reshaping government.
    • Status as of October 25, 2025: Nomination pending U.S. Senate confirmation (Republican-controlled Senate). In the interim, Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski (a career BLS employee who served as acting commissioner during Trump's first term) has been leading the agency.
  • Interim Impact: The firing led to immediate acting leadership under Wiatrowski, but no other permanent replacements for deputy or lower key roles have been publicly announced or confirmed. Reports indicate broader staff cuts and a hiring freeze at BLS, but these affect non-leadership positions.
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AlphaSnowbordergirl

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In addition, steaminggoats reply, one of the most glaring concerns is the August 2025 move by the Orange Lard in Chief.

Replacements in the BLS During Trump's Second TermYes, President Trump has replaced at least one key figure at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during his second term. The most prominent and documented change occurred in early August 2025, shortly after the release of a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. Below is a summary of the key details: Key Replacement
  • Position: BLS Commissioner (the agency's top leadership role, responsible for overseeing the collection and publication of economic data like jobs reports, inflation metrics, and the Consumer Price Index).
  • Fired: Erika McEntarfer (Biden appointee, confirmed in 2024 for a four-year term).
    • Date of Firing: August 1, 2025.
    • Reason Given by Trump: Allegations (without evidence) that she manipulated or "rigged" jobs data for political purposes to benefit Democrats, including claims of "faked" numbers to boost Kamala Harris's election chances. Trump cited routine downward revisions to prior months' data as proof of incompetence or bias.
  • Replacement Nominee: E.J. Antoni (nominated August 11, 2025).
    • Background: Chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation; previously at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Holds a PhD in economics and has taught labor economics and related courses. Contributor to Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint for reshaping government.
    • Status as of October 25, 2025: Nomination pending U.S. Senate confirmation (Republican-controlled Senate). In the interim, Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski (a career BLS employee who served as acting commissioner during Trump's first term) has been leading the agency.
  • Interim Impact: The firing led to immediate acting leadership under Wiatrowski, but no other permanent replacements for deputy or lower key roles have been publicly announced or confirmed. Reports indicate broader staff cuts and a hiring freeze at BLS, but these affect non-leadership positions.
I was trying so hard not to bring politics into it🤣. There is so much more about the distressed economy I wish to add as it is all so much worse than I predicted during the Q4 call in February. I just hope Rivian weathers the storm. I really like the company, and I've never been a car person before them.
 

mkg3

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Odd that he is interim of a new position. You would think they would just hire an employee for a newly created job and not do it this way. As in make the position when you hired and that person started.
But what do I know
C-Suite positions are more than just hiring an employee or promoting one of the existing.

Usually, the position is seeking past performance of accomplishments that a firm is aspiring to. Given where Rivian is in its life cycle, they must be looking for a marketing chief that has proven track record of bringing new major product to the market - preferably in the automotive industry.
 

UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan

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100% spot on. The level of open corruption is beyond comprehension at the highest levels. My Lord.
And even under “normal” circumstances, the reports are not up-to-date. They are months old. They don’t paint a picture of what is happening now, or this month, but what has been trending in previous months. It’s an inherent nature/flaw of the tracking and reporting system. A single data point on a graph tells nothing. Multiple points establish trend and possible trajectory. And you don’t know you’re at a significant turning point, either up or down, until it’s already happened. And that’s the non-partisan truth about economic data. Precisely why no one can look at those reports/figures and conclude “everything is fine, you’re just overreacting”. At best, one can only say, “It’s probably fine. Maybe.“
 
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Electrified Outdoors

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Disclaimer: I am not qualified to give financial advice.

The EV industry is in some short term trouble. I would say sales for the next 12 months give/take have been accelerated due to FOMO on the FTC.

All the FTC has been….IMO…is guaranteed profit for the manufacturers. Yes, it helped accelerate EV sales but it also gives others the talking point “that EVs are only selling because of the FTC”. I think this has taken away one of the most popular talking points for the anti-EV folks.

I ran some of my own calculations as well as doing some heavy research with Chat GPT.

My speculation is that in a worst case scenario Rivian has about 14mo of runway left …that’s if everything goes wrong. Rivian has some things going for it in that they have the VW partnership and they have the loan for the GA factory.

Also, its typical fo there to be some “belt-tightening” prior to a major product launch.

It is a warning sign that there are problems…not necessarily Rivians fault either.

Concerns:
1) Economic back drop (slow down in consumer spending
2) Q3 sales took future sals so will see a slow down
3) Loss of regulatory credits (this is significant)
4) Tarrif/supply cost pressure
5) Loss of FTC result - more incentive spend & less margin on each unit sold
6) Lawsuit settlement will take 183m off the balance sheet according to reports.
7) No more $7,500 lease credit.

RJ taking on the CMO role means its R2 or bust….that’s my read. I think R2 will be a successful product provided Rivian can meet customer expectations on quality, reliability, and service.

Im optimistic these policies will not last forever. Rivian needs to set the bar on initial quality and service. R2 is an attractive design and a compelling vehicle….i would argue the design is much more attractive then its competitors.

I will be more concerned if we see deeper cuts, or if R2 gets delayed. I’m still rooting for Rivian and i think they are the best positioned EV startup to weather this storm.

The positive spin on this is that RJ is taking decisive and sweeping action to ensure Rivian maintains its strong positioning.

I always get very upset when i see layoffs though because I don’t like to see people impacted in this way especially right before the holidays.

We need something big for Q4 like invitations to configure R2 for at least some of the reservation holders. We need to see movement toward launch of R2 (we already see the validation units) but we need to see things on the consumer side to keep folks interested and to make sure the negative news doesn’t overshadow the excitement around R2.

Q4 is typically the busiest time for sales so it will be interesting to see what Rivian does WRT incentives to move R1 units through EOY.
 
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