Stock price prediction upon release of the R2?

[CrazyOne]

Depends on price. If they have a version people want to buy and is profitable at $45k, it will go up. If they come out with a $60k version that will cost them $80k to build, it can further go down. Think of all the things that happened during Model 3 and R1 rollout and they all can happen again.

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[lefkonj]

Somewhere between $1 and $1,000,000 per share. I don't think you will see the returns on the R2 for 24 months. With the economy doing what it is and the current climate in America it will be tough for a few years. Hopefully they can continue to invest and ride it out.

 

[Motoarzon]

JUST THROW A Few bucks at it here and there little by little all along the way whether it's up, down, or sideways!! This is what I did on Tesla since a few years after their IPO and ended up fully retired and living the dream big time 3.5yrs ago a 49 (literally like winning the lottery). I also did similar with the other big stocks like Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Strategy, Google, Palantir ect...been investing for 25yrs since my early 20's. Can't believe so many people missed out on this and couldn't see the writing on the wall. Many got fooled once and still getting fooled again not seeing another 10x in 10yrs investing in Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir and Strategy.
But back to Rivian. The problem with is they have massive debt. They need to become profitable first, then get their debt under control. IMO They'll have a bump when R2 comes out and have a slow rise in 2026 as they can show increasing production volumes. Once they can reach profitability and start eroding debt (likely 2028), that will be the next bump.
The wild card is this: When (not if) but when Tesla's FSD is rolled out to the "public" (And already they are about to remove the "safety passenger" from robotaxis in Austin) then it wouldn't make financial sense to buy any other vehicle unless it can full sell drive! Why would you buy multiple Rivian, Honda, GM, Toyota ect.... for each of you, your wife, and 3 teenagers when you can buy 1, maybe 2 Tesla's that you can all share. Heck; grandma might now require a vehicle either and can just piggy back on yours when she needs to do groceries or go to a doctor appointment. This is all made possible when a vehicle can return home for someone else to ride after dropping the previous person off at their destination.
Whomever gets fully approved "unsupervised" FSD to the public first is going to throw a massively disruptive monkey wrench into every single car manufacturer business models.

 

[BigSkies]

There's a few variables that matter:

1. A successful R2 launch, with enough demand to max out the Normal factory's capacity (~215k/yr across all Rivian models)
2. The GA factory still being roughly on track to hit prior guidance
3. Similar or increased confidence that Rivian has the ability to meet their capital needs to get to cash-flow break even without anything meaningfully dilutive.

Stock prices are notoriously hard to predict for companies at this stage of development.

My SWAG is that the stock price could be in the mid-$20's if the market is feeling confident about all of these at the end of 2026. But it wouldn't take too many setbacks to keep the stock price around where it is.

 

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

$18-$20 peak in Q2 2026 (if successful). News is the usual "doom & gloom" about job cuts, "AI takeover", etc. There seems to be a bit of "good news" potentially about tariffs (senate voting to terminate the ones against Canada yesterday). But when people can't afford groceries, they're not going to be buying luxury cars. Even if R2 isn't priced as a "luxury car", lack of name recognition and dealer network may make it appear that way.

Anacdotally, I've heard of a lot of people making money off the stock in the past 12 months, buying & selling the small rises & dips. I've got holdings in two portfolios, DCA on both. The one that's still under is the one I bought a few overinflated IPO shares with.

Revisit in 2028.

 

[Luvolbikes]

I'm wondering if offering the compact (R3) as the second Rivian release might have been a better marketing decision. Will current Rivian owners step down one size to purchase the planned R2 when the differences don't seem that dramatic? A lower priced FWD compact, an AWD , along with the option for the planned R3X seems to offer a much more appealing set of options.
I'm holding out for the R3X although I have the deposit for the R2.

 

[VandalSibs]

I'm wondering if offering the compact (R3) as the second Rivian release might have been a better marketing decision. Will current Rivian owners step down one size to purchase the planned R2 when the differences don't seem that dramatic? A lower priced FWD compact, an AWD , along with the option for the planned R3X seems to offer a much more appealing set of options.
I'm holding out for the R3X although I have the deposit for the R2.

Crossovers/mini SUVs (which to me is the best description of the R2) are some of the best selling vehicles in the country right now. Compact hatchbacks not as much. R2 first is the right way to go, even though R3 looks like so much fun (if my wife and I were to get a second car, it would be an R3).

 

[Rade]

Brought to you by the same people who said the IPO was only going to multiply!

I bought into the IPO, and unloaded it all just before shares plummeted below $100 a share. That capital loss DID help my taxes that year...

I have a hundred or so share of RIVN that I picked up last year when it was hovering around $11 a share. That's enough. I feel good when it goes about $13. If it hit's $50, huzzah!

 

[Rade]

FWIW, 10 years of Ford, that other car company that has been around... oh... 100 or so years... Nothing monumental. Nothing paradigm shifting. Just a sector stock that had good years and not so good years. Source: Fidelity.

Rivian stock will be what it will be. The release of the R2S next year, it Scaringe keeps to his promise of making it AFFORDABLE, will give a bump and some stability to the stock. $50 a share? Doubt it. I could see consistently low twenties.

 

[CarGuyCarl]

I'm in the same boat. Bought way too much at IPO, been averaging down over the years.

I think R2 by itself won't do much, maybe a lil bump for the news. Until Rivian shows a profit, I don't think the stock is moving much. Pains me to say. I've been debating selling it all off here soon...

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Moot to speculate. It's going to remain a rocky ride for years. Hold and HODL.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I'm in the same boat. Bought way too much at IPO, been averaging down over the years.

I think R2 by itself won't do much, maybe a lil bump for the news. Until Rivian shows a profit, I don't think the stock is moving much. Pains me to say. I've been debating selling it all off here soon...

This is the way. If you got hurt on the IPO, you should have been averaging down. This stock has been really easy to trade for 18 months. Buy at 10-12, sell at 14-16.

 

[mkg3]

I'm in the same boat. Bought way too much at IPO, been averaging down over the years.

I think R2 by itself won't do much, maybe a lil bump for the news. Until Rivian shows a profit, I don't think the stock is moving much. Pains me to say. I've been debating selling it all off here soon...

It might help you to think about the whole portfolio performance over any single stock performance.

Frankly, averaging down only makes sense if one is convinced that the price will recover. Otherwise, it's just throwing good money over bad. There are lot better opportunities than Rivian currently.

I know many people herein say that they are holding for the long term and I get why they say that. Just keep in mind what the dollars tied up on Rivian stock might do over the same period in another investment instead of waiting for the Rivian lottery to hit.

This is not to say one shouldn't buy and hold. I have those too but their performance has excelled so much so that I can tolerate dips and not be concerned about them.

If your portfolio is greater than before you bought Rivian, then you're doing okay. If not, stop keep pouring more money to avenge down so that you worsen the portfolio performance.

 

[stormbreaker]

If there a fuel (gasoline) shock due to internal or external circumstances where gas either reaches those 2007 level prices, I full expect ppl to move more to EVs.

My R1T is so much more cost effective over my wife's sedan since her car takes super unleaded.

I pay .20 per KwH at my office. So for a avg week of driving is $14 to $18 tops.

 

[iansriv]

Where is Roaring Kitty when you need him? Keith?

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