R2 Launching Twice: G2 v. G3, R1S Deals, etc.

[mudito]

I just watched the YouTuber The Duke of Middleville and he has some very interesting points about the upcoming R2 Launch. Mostly speculation, but interesting nonetheless. He’s a Rivian owner and fan. Some topics for discussion:

• Launching two R2s (within 6 months of each other)
• R2 Gen 2 vs. R2 Gen 3 (LiDar and more powerful hardware incoming)
• The Osborne Effect (who will wait?)
• A commonly slower production ramp for a new model that also buys time for Gen 3 hardware production
• Potential R1S Deals to keep things moving

Getting a Gen2 and trading it in for a Gen3 6months later is the way to go...

Don't ask me about financial decisions ever, please

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[R1T-NotAJoke]

Well I recall my Tesla MYP 2022, i was getting it during the May ish time frame and they were transitioning between Intel vs AMD chip, dual pane glass and forgot the other item, no change in price. No change in model. Lidar might just be considered to be an option vs a different gen. Same thing with R1T's with No Tonneau being released and some other suspensions changes and no gen change. So it all will be Gen 1 with or without Lidar and fancy chip.

 

[skyguyscott]

... The reason is Gen 2 is because it will be using Gen 2 wiring and architecture I believe, so it has things in common with the Gen 2 line up. I'm assuming when the Gen 3 comes out for the R2, the R1 will be updating to Gen 3 soon after as well.

I think conflating hardware architecture and generations of a particular model are going to get confusing fast, especially with Rivian's model nomenclature, are you talking Gen 1 R2 or Gen 2 R1S or R3x Gen 1...

It's might help to designate Hard Ware Architecture to calendar years, Software to the software name such as 2025.38, and Generation numbers to sequential releases of models, especially since the actual hardware will vary between the R1T, the R1S, the R2, the R3 and the R3x, even though some of the hardware architecture may have common components.

For instance, both the 2025 and 2026 model years of R1T and R1S are referred to as Gen 2, since there have been a number of changes in Hardware architecture, physical styling and characteristics, system components (such as motors, audio components, etc.) from the Gen 1 model years of 2022-2024.

If you want to differentiate Hardware Architecture , you could use calendar years or perhaps Roman Numerals, or Greek Alphabet (constrained numerically). Apple used to be cute designating cat breeds or places in CA to denote software releases, but it became difficult to remember what preceded or followed which release.

I might also humbly suggest the old phonetic alphabet (the international one currently uses terms like Alpha and Delta which are terms already in use elsewhere in development and will not end the likelihood of confusion)
Able, Baker, Charlie, Dog, Easy, Fox, George, How... you will run out, but that will be over 26 years from now, assuming a new Hardware Architecture is developed each and every year, and/or that Rivian is still in business in more or less its present form in 2055.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Well I recall my Tesla MYP 2022, i was getting it during the May ish time frame and they were transitioning between Intel vs AMD chip, dual pane glass and forgot the other item, no change in price. No change in model. Lidar might just be considered to be an option vs a different gen. Same thing with R1T's with No Tonneau being released and some other suspensions changes and no gen change. So it all will be Gen 1 with or without Lidar and fancy chip.

Except "gen 3" has already been uttered by Rivian execs at Autonomy Day.

Honestly, it's no different from the booming hay day of the personal computer. Things move fast and the stuff you buy become outdated quickly. And the pure EVs are really just computers that happen to be cars.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

I think conflating hardware architecture and generations of a particular model are going to get confusing fast, especially with Rivian's model nomenclature, are you talking Gen 1 R2 or Gen 2 R1S or R3x Gen 1...

It's might help to designate Hard Ware Architecture to calendar years, Software to the software name such as 2025.38, and Generation numbers to sequential releases of models, especially since the actual hardware will vary between the R1T, the R1S, the R2, the R3 and the R3x, even though some of the hardware architecture may have common components.

For instance, both the 2025 and 2026 model years of R1T and R1S are referred to as Gen 2, since there have been a number of changes in Hardware architecture, physical styling and characteristics, system components (such as motors, audio components, etc.) from the Gen 1 model years of 2022-2024.

If you want to differentiate Hardware Architecture , you could use calendar years or perhaps Roman Numerals, or Greek Alphabet (constrained numerically). Apple used to be cute designating cat breeds or places in CA to denote software releases, but it became difficult to remember what preceded or followed which release.

I might also humbly suggest the old phonetic alphabet (the international one currently uses terms like Alpha and Delta which are terms already in use elsewhere in development and will not end the likelihood of confusion)
Able, Baker, Charlie, Dog, Easy, Fox, George, How... you will run out, but that will be over 26 years from now, assuming a new Hardware Architecture is developed each and every year, and/or that Rivian is still in business in more or less its present form in 2055.

Honestly, what you're talking about it more confusing to me. I get why Rivian is doing it this way. It's very reminiscent of computers and how they handle it, so it's not confusing to me. But those who aren't familiar, I can see how it could be confusing. Gen 2 R2 is just R2 with generation 2 technology essentially. It's like saying hey this car runs on Windows XP (gen 1), this one runs on windows 7 (gen 2) and this one runs on windows 11 (gen 3) (yes I know its not a software and its hardware we are talking about which has different lifecycles). Tells you a lot about the car without having to get into nitty gritty as this type of hardware they are using for the cars aren't changing each year.

 

[bronco7777]

One question no can answer with any certainty at this point is what will the price differential (jump up in price) be between the Launch R2 with GEN 2 tech in the spring and the R2 with GEN 3 LIDAR tech in the fall. Is that a 3-5K difference in price? Or are we talking more than 5K...like 8-10K?

If it's way more than 5K perhaps many on the fence about autonomy will just default to the launch edition with no LIDAR. Honestly, if you are going with the Launch R2 it's probably best to wait till after the launch and then buy a used one from the first wave of used R2's to hit the market sometime in October or so. The depreciation drop every EV gets will make that Launch R2 even more of a bargain. Unless of course you can't do without that shiny new car smell or Rivian provides some free lifetime subscriptions for purchasing a new R2 GEN 2 at the launch; specials you can't get as a secondary owner.

 

[VandalSibs]

One question no can answer with any certainty at this point is what will the price differential (jump up in price) be between the Launch R2 with GEN 2 tech in the spring and the R2 with GEN 3 LIDAR tech in the fall. Is that a 3-5K difference in price? Or are we talking more than 5K...like 8-10K?

If it's way more than 5K perhaps many on the fence about autonomy will just default to the launch edition with no LIDAR. Honestly, if you are going with the Launch R2 it's probably best to wait till after the launch and then buy a used one from the first wave of used R2's to hit the market sometime in October or so. The depreciation drop every EV gets will make that Launch R2 even more of a bargain. Unless of course you can't do without that shiny new car smell or Rivian provides some free lifetime subscriptions for purchasing a new R2 GEN 2 at the launch; specials you can't get as a secondary owner.

Most likely it will be a small or no real price change. When the "Gen 3" version of R2 launches in the fall, it's going to outright replace any "Gen 2" version. If they increased the price enough that the standard battery/single motor version was no longer priced at $45k, as they have been stating and continue to state, it would be one of the worst self-owns in a long time.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

IMO, while Rivian may have an idea what the price target and difference will be, but they aren’t saying it out loud because current business conditions, and costs, are unstable. Just look to how often tariff rates change. There is no certainty until close to launch and decisions/commitments have to be made. China and South Korea are major suppliers to the global auto industry. Even if Rivian’s vendors are American, those may have their own suppliers that aren’t.

 

[Druidspirit]

Do you think they will have deals on the R1S when the R2 finally releases? Or do you think they will remove all the R1S deals to try and push the R2? Waiting impatiently for the configurator to release to see the specs of the R2 and would be awesome to get a good lease deal on a R1S.

 

[NY_Rob]

Do you think they will have deals on the R1S when the R2 finally releases? Or do you think they will remove all the R1S deals to try and push the R2? Waiting impatiently for the configurator to release to see the specs of the R2 and would be awesome to get a good lease deal on a R1S.

If all goes according to plan, the R2 will become their mass production vehicle and the R1 vehicles will be their Halo offerings. It's somewhat like Tesla where they don't rely on Model S or Model X sales to keep the company afloat, the Model 3 and Model Y keep them in business. As such, IMO they won't be offering deals on R1 vehicles other than possible end of quarter, scattered dealer demo and returned R1's.

 

[skyguyscott]

Honestly, what you're talking about it more confusing to me. I get why Rivian is doing it this way. It's very reminiscent of computers and how they handle it, so it's not confusing to me. But those who aren't familiar, I can see how it could be confusing. Gen 2 R2 is just R2 with generation 2 technology essentially. It's like saying hey this car runs on Windows XP (gen 1), this one runs on windows 7 (gen 2) and this one runs on windows 11 (gen 3) (yes I know its not a software and its hardware we are talking about which has different lifecycles). Tells you a lot about the car without having to get into nitty gritty as this type of hardware they are using for the cars aren't changing each year.

I can understand how, being software focused, it might make sense to denote the hardware/software configurations in generations, as those are significant developments.

But in the larger context of the automotive world, generations of models take into account the body styling, suspension design, drive train, engine configuration, and even things like head-light/tail-light changes, and so on. For example, the Ford Mustang is currently on its seventh generation, not including the Mach E. You can visually distinguish clear differences between the original Mustang, the Mustang II, and so on:
Launch:

Mustang II ('74-'78 least loved):

Third Generation, '79-'86, '87-93, two series):

Skipping to 5th Gen, '05-'14 :

Take any automotive model; sedans, pick-up trucks, vans, etc. that have been around for over a decade and you can see model years that clearly break from previous incarnations, and set or follow a new design paradigm. And in the automotive world, it has long been established that we denote these seminal changes to the model as generations.

For Rivian, differences between Gens 1 & 2 R1s go beyond the software and computer hardware architecture; there are subtle changes to the headlights, cabin design and seat design, and other such changes, which arguably could be more accurately described as a series change rather than a Generational change, but that is the consistency of Human language for you.

 

[Virtio]

Getting a Gen2 and trading it in for a Gen3 6months later is the way to go...

Don't ask me about financial decisions ever, please

I agree 100%

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

I can understand how, being software focused, it might make sense to denote the hardware/software configurations in generations, as those are significant developments.

But in the larger context of the automotive world, generations of models take into account the body styling, suspension design, drive train, engine configuration, and even things like head-light/tail-light changes, and so on. For example, the Ford Mustang is currently on its seventh generation, not including the Mach E. You can visually distinguish clear differences between the original Mustang, the Mustang II, and so on:

While true, the R1 series hasn't had much difference visually and was more under the hood, so I think that's why they've be using Gen 1 and 2 because the under the hood tech and wiring was the main differences with very minute changing on the outside. The Gen 1/ Gen 2 still support what you're saying. It's telling you Gen 2 has less wiring, better cameras, etc. And Gen 3 will have the lidars. It's effectively doing the same thing. Perhaps if they decide to do a major change to the bodystylings they will do something different, but I suspect they will just call it R4 or R5. Instead of changing the body of the R1 and keep calling it the R1, but if they do make major differences to the R1, maybe they will change naming conventions.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Do you think they will have deals on the R1S when the R2 finally releases? Or do you think they will remove all the R1S deals to try and push the R2? Waiting impatiently for the configurator to release to see the specs of the R2 and would be awesome to get a good lease deal on a R1S.

Rivian has the following deals on R1s:

Zero percent APR for 60 months is a good deal, but it still depends on the monthly payment for a lot of people. Since it will take a while for Rivian to ramp up the R2 and they have the R1 line ready to ship, why not try to upsell some customers with a sweet lease deal? They also sell their own used vehicles and with depreciation what it is, especially for EVs, you might end up with a really good deal.

In the end it just depends on what you’re looking for and what you’re willing to pay for it.

 

[Druidspirit]

Rivian has the following deals on R1s:

Zero percent APR for 60 months is a good deal, but it still depends on the monthly payment for a lot of people. Since it will take a while for Rivian to ramp up the R2 and they have the R1 line ready to ship, why not try to upsell some customers with a sweet lease deal? They also sell their own used vehicles and with depreciation what it is, especially for EVs, you might end up with a really good deal.

In the end it just depends on what you’re looking for and what you’re willing to pay for it.

Yeah, it's making me itchy. I'm fighting myself because I really want to wait for the R2. I've been going on their website multiple times a day looking at different configurations of the R1S.

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