What will Performance Edition R2 LE equivalent cost with LIDAR version

[Kachook]

I know that most of this is pure speculation. But I wanted to get the hive’s thoughts on what we think an R2 equivalent with the Launch Edition options offered will cost once LIDAR is available. That would include Autonomy+ for life, the tow package and the key fob. Don’t really like the puke green color. Maybe $4k more? Thoughts?

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[DuoRivian]

I was thinking the same - it will be I assume a 2027 model so some price increase for inflation, add Lidar and the new chip, then add the autonomy subscription (otherwise does lidar get you much) and I would expect at least $4000 more than the performance now.

 

[RivAW]

The "launch edition" is temporary (because it's a "launch edition") and probably won't still be around when LIDAR versions become available.

 

[tivoboy]

they might build a launch edition with some premium, but come 2027 they will just put it in every windscreen/roof and not charge for it.. like putting XM/Sirius radios in every car back in the 90’s to enable future ARR for streaming satellite radio. I doubt that they will charge for it overall once it gets going.

 

[JoulesVerne]

Puke green! How dare you

 

[Southern R1S]

The "launch edition" is temporary (because it's a "launch edition") and probably won't still be around when LIDAR versions become available.

But in all seriousness, I think this is the answer. The LE will eventually go away, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen around the time they have the LiDAR versions ready.

While they may tick up pricing slightly, I could honestly see them swapping out the LE benefits (Autonomy+, Tow Package, Special Paint, Tire upgrades?) for LiDAR and keeping the price the same or similar.

 

[therealcmj]

The launch edition includes the full autonomy package forever, a fob, and the tow package. The A+ is a (theoretically) $2,500 option but Rivian will value that at about 1/3 or 1/2 because it doesn't do much and they don't have a known take rate yet. On the other side LIDAR hardware costs have dropped significantly and now are well under $1,000.

Rivian wants the data that LIDAR sensors will provide. Not just for the one car they're attached to, but for the data they get to train the autonomy stack for every R1 and R2 on the road. And also maybe to sell to Scout and/or other manufacturers.

The real question I (as a small investor) am asking is whether these profitable out of the gate. They are supposed to be but there's been a ton of changes in the industry and economy and we'll need someone to buy one and tear it down plus a quarter's worth of them being for sale for Rivian to tell us in the quarterly numbers.

If the R2 is profitable then my prediction is that they will keep the "all in" price roughly the same - increasing just a little for inflation. But how they package and message that could go a bunch of ways. Maybe they keep the price flat, but leave out lifetime autonomy (minus $2,500 retail for the previously "included in the price" A+), and saving them a little money off the BOM for fob + tow package, but adding the LIDAR cost. Or they go up $2,500 and include the lifetime autonomy as a line item on the invoice with no opt out. But that's all just a guess.

If it's not profitable then all that is wrong.

 

[mkg3]

My guess is that the first LiDAR equipped R2 will be the Tri-Motor variant.

This way Rivian can justify the added costs of LiDAR and embed it with the Tri-Motor. The Price, in today's dollars, probably will be around $70K.

 

[ENVErider]

I know that most of this is pure speculation. But I wanted to get the hive’s thoughts on what we think an R2 equivalent with the Launch Edition options offered will cost once LIDAR is available. That would include Autonomy+ for life, the tow package and the key fob. Don’t really like the puke green color. Maybe $4k more? Thoughts?

I doubt LE's will be available once Gen3 hardware is rolling out UNLESS there's a later release of of a tri-motor that can be called a LE model in late 2026 or early 2027. I'd guess $68-69k for a LE tri if that ever exists.

 

[Time2Roll]

The real cost is time. First the wait for the hardware then the wait for the software.

 

[Harvest]

In the interview posted earlier this week with RJ he said the lidar costs them less than $200 per unit and they plan to put it in all R2 units. He said the holdup on adding that technology was developing the custom computer chip that is going to help power the upgraded autonomy features, and that is the most expensive part of the autonomy system. He mentioned closer to a $1000. So I would expect ≥ $1500 bump across the lineup when the upgraded versions come out with Lidar and the new computer chip, although they seem to want to hold the price of the lowest cost option to $45k, so we'll see what happens with that.

 

[RivAW]

My guess is that the first LiDAR equipped R2 will be the Tri-Motor variant.

This way Rivian can justify the added costs of LiDAR and embed it with the Tri-Motor. The Price, in today's dollars, probably will be around $70K.

+ 10K for the tri-motor with LIDAR seems steep. You'll be able to by cheaper used Gen 2 R1S for that or less....

 

[DuoRivian]

+ 10K for the tri-motor with LIDAR seems steep. You'll be able to by cheaper used Gen 2 R1S for that or less....

The tri R1 has a bigger bump. Cost of the motor is several thousands, development cost spread across a limited number of vehicles sold and I would assume the interior gets some upgrades like the Ascent trim in R1.

 

[River Ghost]

If you go to the following video and specifically to the section about vision versus LIDAR (29:45) RJ Scaringe answers most of these questions.



Here are some quotes from RJ Scaringe:

"a high performance long range LIDAR you can buy for a couple hundred bucks"

"The most expensive part in a self-driving system is the brain. ... It's the inference platform plus the entire compute platform necessary support that. So, all the associated memory ... and all that consolidated onto a big PCBA, the cooling systems to support that that's far more expensive than the perception stack."

"radars are tens of dollars, cameras are tens of dollars, lidars are hundreds of dollars."

"[LIDAR is] incredibly useful for training your cameras."

"you just have to go El Camino or page and you'll see a bunch of Telsas drive by ... with LIDARS mounted on them and it's part of their ... ground truth fleet for training their models"

"in fact any of the incremental costs that would have been there on its own is offset by the fact that we brought inference in house and reduced the cost of our inference platform so dramatically from [the R1S that] uses an Nvidia inference platform."

"I say all this because in the infinite long-term ... you could make the case that once the models are very very robust you could have less cameras or you may be able to get away with less radar. It's not clear yet if that's the case for covering all these corner cases. I'd say it's unknown but ... in our case it's very clearly accelerates the rate of progress for training the model and it very clearly allows us to deliver level four features"

My takeaways are:

The cameras, radars and LIDAR are for training the model; it is unknown what will be needed for level four self-driving (the inference stack as opposed to the training wheel for the model). I would assume radar would be needed for poor visibility but LIDAR may not be needed.

The RAP1 chip is four times as powerful as the Nvidia chip (800 TOPS versus 200 TOPS) so there might be some reason to wait for it but I do not see any reason to wait for LIDAR which may not even be needed for level four driving (which is still along ways off). But I think the difference would just be the speed at which the inference stack responds to the sensors.

The inference stack with the RAP1 chip is going to cost less than the Nvidia inference stack even with the additional LIDAR sensor so it will save Rivian some money. I do not think they will charge more for the LIDAR and RAP1 chip.

If you are worried about obsolescence I would worry about solid state batteries. I think they are far enough off that they are not a concern but they may be widely available by around 2030. So if you wait for LIDAR then you may then find yourself waiting for solid state batteries.

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