Electrek - Tesla and SpaceX announce $25B ‘Terafab’ chip factory — here’s why it reeks of desperation

[Yossarian]

I don't agree that this move, even if the timeline is accurate (which it almost certainly is not), smacks of desperation. It does however provide some new, additional evidence that Elon is pretty much done with the car business and has moved on to figuring out how to conquer Mars or something equally esoteric.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the CT was the last new Tesla product and that there are essentially no new Tesla models in the pipeline. That's concerning, but consistent with Elon no longer caring about being in the car business (though he does seem to want to be in the somewhat related robotaxi business). With Tesla sidelined, it could well be that the tsunami of inexpensive and pretty technologically advanced Chinese-made EV's set to crash on our shores in a few short years will drown all other domestic competition.

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[VandalSibs]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the CT was the last new Tesla product and that there are essentially no new Tesla models in the pipeline. That's concerning, but consistent with Elon no longer caring about being in the car business (though he does seem to want to be in the somewhat related robotaxi business). With Tesla sidelined, it could well be that the tsunami of inexpensive and pretty technologically advanced Chinese-made EV's set to crash on our shores in a few short years will drown all other domestic competition.

In theory, the Semi is going to go into "mass production" this year, along with the Cybercab (I think on the same line as the Cybertruck?!?). Even more in theory, the new Roadster is supposed to still be in development.

In reality? No one outside of Tesla (and I'm guessing quite a few within Tesla!) knows.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Even if Leon was a saint , I wouldn't buy anything from Tesla. I walked away from a Model S in 2017 because the product wasn't good enough for the price.

I'm glad I didn't walk away from my TSLA stock in 2017.....

 

[Cycliste]

Perhaps they could contract with "Dr. Semiconductor" who built a Class 100 cleanroom in a backyard shed. He custom built a litho system using a microscope. I got a kick out of his 3D printed photoresist spin coater shielded with aluminum foil. Talk about dreams and ambition!

That was a great video! I can’t wait for more. Of course, Dr. S didn’t promise to be producing leading edge chips at scale. That’s because Dr S isn’t scamming investors.

 

[CrazyOne]

I'm glad I didn't walk away from my TSLA stock in 2017.....

You can make literally nothing and still make money. Like Bitcoin and the endless clones. These are meme investments.

 

[DuoRivian]

I don't agree that this move, even if the timeline is accurate (which it almost certainly is not), smacks of desperation. It does however provide some new, additional evidence that Elon is pretty much done with the car business and has moved on to figuring out how to conquer Mars or something equally esoteric.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the CT was the last new Tesla product and that there are essentially no new Tesla models in the pipeline. That's concerning, but consistent with Elon no longer caring about being in the car business (though he does seem to want to be in the somewhat related robotaxi business). With Tesla sidelined, it could well be that the tsunami of inexpensive and pretty technologically advanced Chinese-made EV's set to crash on our shores in a few short years will drown all other domestic competition.

Chinese made cheap EVs are not coming to the US given the tariffs under both Biden and Trump. Well know it would cause mass layoffs with other manufacturers in the US.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that the CT was the last new Tesla product and that there are essentially no new Tesla models in the pipeline.

Elon would correct you. The Roadster will be unveiled "next month", he says.

 

[ukyank]

Bring it on - the more manufacturers in the US, especially in this space, the better

 

[skyguyscott]

Elon is an odd and perhaps evil duck, though I have never met him, but I can give the devil his due. On this venture, I will say that regardless of the unhinged timeline, the guy has the right idea in terms of scale. One reason China has taken the lead in renewable energy is that the CCP went big and all in on building huge factories at such scale, no private company anywhere in the world could compete. Their strategy is to dominate whatever space they choose by getting in early (or if late, going fast) and going big -- bigger and faster than anyone else dares or can. If the US tried this same approach, there would be cries of "picking winners" and "socialism" and multiple lawsuits, and other nonsense, lead by those who are unprincipled, unscrupulous, unserious, without knowledge or capacity or plans, but motivated by jealous greed and need for control. They have no idea where to go, yet they insist on leading.

 

[Zoidz]

Elon is an odd and perhaps evil duck, though I have never met him, but I can give the devil his due. On this venture, I will say that regardless of the unhinged timeline, the guy has the right idea in terms of scale. One reason China has taken the lead in renewable energy is that the CCP went big and all in on building huge factories at such scale, no private company anywhere in the world could compete. Their strategy is to dominate whatever space they choose by getting in early (or if late, going fast) and going big -- bigger and faster than anyone else dares or can. If the US tried this same approach, there would be cries of "picking winners" and "socialism" and multiple lawsuits, and other nonsense, lead by those who are unprincipled, unscrupulous, unserious, without knowledge or capacity or plans, but motivated by jealous greed and need for control. They have no idea where to go, yet they insist on leading.

Agree. In the 70s and 80s the US was the leader in chip fab/foundry and like so much other manufacturing, we let it go offshore. The whole mess related to China and Taiwan is a huge business, financial and security risk. We are at least moving in the right direction by bringing some of it back to the US. I don't find fault with Musk's intent, just the completely out of touch timeline he is proposing. It undermines the effort and credibility.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Your criticism about this being a non-Rivian thread vs your thread creation history .... SERIOUSLY???

He's probably Elon, we all know Elon doesn't like Fred.

 

[forestwalker]

My initial reaction, every time this yutz throws out a fantastical declaration like this, is a lewd hand gesture about the crotch... BUT I have also learned to never count him out completely. I would imagine the result will be a very leaned-down version of his original manic idea that is still altogether somewhat impressive.

Also FWIW, thread absolutely belongs where it was posted. Good discussion aside from that nonsense.

 

[Motoarzon]

YA'LL GOT Your Elon baaaadddd, Tesla Baaaddd blinders on. You have no clue what's coming down the pipe and how this all ties together!
-Tesla just announce a major expansion of their Giga Texas facilities. Room for the Terafab plant, room to double the size of the existing plant (to build what is believed to be Model Y-L or Cyber SUV...New frame spotted with open crate at giga-texas. Definitely much bigger than existing vehicles. Ideal to replace Model X and be true full size 3row SUV competitor).
-Current HW4 Hardware in Tesla cars has the Ai4 chip. The same chip that will be in Optimus robot.
-The Cybertruck has bi-directional charging and rolling out to the 2026 ModelY performance, soon after all ModelY,3's You will have the capability to charge up over night for cheap at off-peak and discharge some energy during the day at-peak and "make money" if you choose.
-Likewise You will "make money" off the computer in your car while it's parked and doing too. Tesla will be enabling your Ai4 chip in the FSD computer to work as an "Ai Agent". Once again putting your car to use and "making money" while parked producing Ai cloud compute and doing work.
-Terafab will produce (as many as they can) current Ai4 chips, then Ai5 & 6 and also specialized future D3 Ai chips for their space based satellite datacenters. That is a heck of a lot of chips.
-Tesla has signed contracts with each of their suppliers for Optimus for 160k parts for 2026 alone. Tesla will build 160k Optimus robots by end of year 2026. Production estimated to start in July. So first year alone 160k A14 chips required. These robot will be used by Tesla in their own facilities doing useful work replacing expensive humans. 2027 further ramp estimates of 500,000k Optimus for sale to customers (other businesses, factory type work). 2028 for sale to consumers, estimate 1M+ units.

-Tesla will have the full vertical integration for Ai in self driving cars, Ai in robots, SpaceX will deliver datacenters to space. SpaceX will be providing the satellite communications pathways between everything.
-SpaceX and Xai have already merged (privately)
-There is now a SpaceX/Xai public IPO coming in June/July. Expected to raise "75billion", plenty of money to fund their ambitious roadmap.
-Ultimately a lot of analysts believe after that there will be a merger between SpaceX and Tesla further tying everything together.

You don't have to like Elon but If you guys don't see this ecosystem and monstrous corporation forming and literally making the future happen with FSD cars, humanoid robots Ai systems ect...you are out to lunch!! You will miss a massive opportunity if you aren't part of it, and invested.
FYI. I personally didn't like Apple and stopped using their phones after the iPhone 4...but I still invested big time in Apple because others still liked Apple and I wanted to be richer off that.
-Do you all want to be right, or be richer and a part of the future, which is coming whether you like it or not, whether you believe it or not?

 

[DuoRivian]

YA'LL GOT Your Elon baaaadddd, Tesla Baaaddd blinders on. You have no clue what's coming down the pipe and how this all ties together!
-Tesla just announce a major expansion of their Giga Texas facilities. Room for the Terafab plant, room to double the size of the existing plant (to build what is believed to be Model Y-L or Cyber SUV...New frame spotted with open crate at giga-texas. Definitely much bigger than existing vehicles. Ideal to replace Model X and be true full size 3row SUV competitor).
-Current HW4 Hardware in Tesla cars has the Ai4 chip. The same chip that will be in Optimus robot.
-The Cybertruck has bi-directional charging and rolling out to the 2026 ModelY performance, soon after all ModelY,3's You will have the capability to charge up over night for cheap at off-peak and discharge some energy during the day at-peak and "make money" if you choose.
-Likewise You will "make money" off the computer in your car while it's parked and doing too. Tesla will be enabling your Ai4 chip in the FSD computer to work as an "Ai Agent". Once again putting your car to use and "making money" while parked producing Ai cloud compute and doing work.
-Terafab will produce (as many as they can) current Ai4 chips, then Ai5 & 6 and also specialized future D3 Ai chips for their space based satellite datacenters. That is a heck of a lot of chips.
-Tesla has signed contracts with each of their suppliers for Optimus for 160k parts for 2026 alone. Tesla will build 160k Optimus robots by end of year 2026. Production estimated to start in July. So first year alone 160k A14 chips required. These robot will be used by Tesla in their own facilities doing useful work replacing expensive humans. 2027 further ramp estimates of 500,000k Optimus for sale to customers (other businesses, factory type work). 2028 for sale to consumers, estimate 1M+ units.

-Tesla will have the full vertical integration for Ai in self driving cars, Ai in robots, SpaceX will deliver datacenters to space. SpaceX will be providing the satellite communications pathways between everything.
-SpaceX and Xai have already merged (privately)
-There is now a SpaceX/Xai public IPO coming in June/July. Expected to raise "75billion", plenty of money to fund their ambitious roadmap.
-Ultimately a lot of analysts believe after that there will be a merger between SpaceX and Tesla further tying everything together.

You don't have to like Elon but If you guys don't see this ecosystem and monstrous corporation forming and literally making the future happen with FSD cars, humanoid robots Ai systems ect...you are out to lunch!! You will miss a massive opportunity if you aren't part of it, and invested.
FYI. I personally didn't like Apple and stopped using their phones after the iPhone 4...but I still invested big time in Apple because others still liked Apple and I wanted to be richer off that.
-Do you all want to be right, or be richer and a part of the future, which is coming whether you like it or not, whether you believe it or not?

Understand what you are saying but Tesla is already highly valued and needs to execute to perfection for years to grow INTO their P/E ratio.

 

[VandalSibs]

-Tesla has signed contracts with each of their suppliers for Optimus for 160k parts for 2026 alone. Tesla will build 160k Optimus robots by end of year 2026. Production estimated to start in July. So first year alone 160k A14 chips required. These robot will be used by Tesla in their own facilities doing useful work replacing expensive humans.

When I see someone excited for people losing their jobs, I know to stop taking them seriously.

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