Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[TexasBob]

I test drove R2 Autonomy+ last week and asked about LIDAR. The Rivian rep said that they were recently told by corporate that it will not be available until MY28.

I sure hope this is wrong. If Rivian slips its autonomy program by 12 months, shareholders are about to get an epic beat down.

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[Jeremy3292]

This will make it much harder for me. I was going to sell my truck in a couple months and then buy with RAP1/lidar end of year/early next. I can't go almost a year without a car.

If I am going to buy without RAP1 then I could go ahead and order next month...

Who knows what the truth is, but RJ has said late 2026 but also has said a bunch of time early 2027 also. So there’s really no way of knowing but logic would dictate no reason to add RAP1/LIDAR if sales demand is high. Add it in MY28 after the initial spike of demand fizzles a year later.

LE includes Autonomy+ that has plenty of headroom to be very capable down the road, as good as FSD is today per RJ, just not L4. I’m not paying any more money for future promises by waiting for RAP1 and then paying $2500 for Autonomy+. When someone solves L4/L5 I’ll look into buying.

 

[NinjaWrap]

Hmmm... I'm also VERY interested in R3X, so it's possible this R2 could become my wife's after her Y lease ends in a couple years. She didn't want to renew her FSD subscription after the trials and my 3 months of credits ended. She (like most Tesla owners) doesn't really care about FSD.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Sales people are likely not informed about this at all. Wait for a Rivian executive to say something more than Late 2026 to early 2027. That's the only credible info we have so far.

Very true but like you said RJ has said a bunch of times early 2027. That can easily mean March 2027 - like their spring R2 release was June 10 which is technically still spring - and then that also might just mean start of production, which then means April-June 2027 before anyone gets one. The point is these timelines can moved by 3-6 months easily and then before you know it it’s MY28 and we are well into 2027.

I don’t think they’re in a rush to get out RAP1/LIDAR when demand is high for R2 as is. When sales and demand dip, you introduced new features. Textbook sales and economics.

 

[Eric9610]

Who knows what the truth is, but RJ has said late 2026 but also has said a bunch of time early 2027 also. So there’s really no way of knowing but logic would dictate no reason to add RAP1/LIDAR if sales demand is high. Add it in MY28 after the initial spike of demand fizzles a year later.

LE includes Autonomy+ that has plenty of headroom to be very capable down the road, as good as FSD is today per RJ, just not L4. I’m not paying any more money for future promises by waiting for RAP1 and then paying $2500 for Autonomy+. When someone solves L4/L5 I’ll look into buying.

You're assuming that Autonomy+ will stay at $2,500. I can easily see them keeping the cars the same price but raising A+ by $1-2k

 

[Jeremy3292]

You're assuming that Autonomy+ will stay at $2,500. I can easily see them keeping the cars the same price but raising A+ by $1-2k

Also this too, which is why I’m just buying what’s available now with it included for free. I own FSD now and I use it on road trips for sure, but I’m not an autonomy freak who uses it to drive to the store 10 minutes away lol. It’s honestly annoying then and I’d rather just drive my car for fun. I just want it on long road trips and A+ is perfectly capable today for that.


One in the hand is worth more the two in the bush.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Hmmm... I'm also VERY interested in R3X, so it's possible this R2 could become my wife's after her Y lease ends in a couple years. She didn't want to renew her FSD subscription after the trials and my 3 months of credits ended. She (like most Tesla owners) doesn't really care about FSD.

Buy R2 for yourself with A+ included forever, give it to your wife in a few years, buy R3X for yourself then

 

[JeffnReno]

Not saying Elon and RJ are anything alike but how long did Elon say the cars would drive coast to coast without any driver intervention? How many of us spent thousands on FSD over those years just to now be told it needs HW4 and our cars are stuck with HW3 and depending on when we got it possibly older cameras? We got our Model 3 so early it was on HW 2.5 and paid extra to update it to HW3. If or when we get an R2 with Autonomy+ for life, I'll be happy if it just never gets worse than the demo drive version it already has. I'm not going to buy into the next greatest thing is coming. At 72 yo, the number of years I have left won't be wasted on hoping my car will drive me when I can't drive anymore. If nothing else, we learned grocery delivery and Uber for appointments aren't that bad anyway.

 

[BigSkies]

One thing I appreciate about being in the tech world is knowing people that actually know what they're talking about.

I've come to appreciate that autonomous driving tech is both closer than the detractors think and further than its proponents think.

Some versions of it are already here when you look at Waymo and the various features available for Tesla/Rivian/etc.

Features available for commercial fleets (Waymo, Uber, etc) will come at a different pace than they will be available for consumer owned vehicles.

Getting to a world where cars are truly autonomous is multiple hardware and software versions in the future. Each generation will get better, but will hit its limits. Many of the fundamental challenges in self driving are related to the underlying limits of computing power.

 

[Jeremy3292]

One thing I appreciate about being in the tech world is knowing people that actually know what they're talking about.

I've come to appreciate that autonomous driving tech is both closer than the detractors think and further than its proponents think.

Some versions of it are already here when you look at Waymo and the various features available for Tesla/Rivian/etc.

Features available for commercial fleets (Waymo, Uber, etc) will come at a different pace than they will be available for consumer owned vehicles.

Getting to a world where cars are truly autonomous is multiple hardware and software versions in the future. Each generation will get better, but will hit its limits. Many of the fundamental challenges in self driving are related to the underlying limits of computing power.

The current elephant in the room is inclement weather as I see it.

 

[NinjaWrap]

The current elephant in the room is inclement weather as I see it.

or bright sunlight. I just got kicked out of FSD a couple days ago when I came around a curve and the morning sun was shining just right through the trees. Granted, I could barely see out the windshield myself and had to slow way down for a second.

 

[Jeremy3292]

or bright sunlight. I just got kicked out of FSD a couple days ago when I came around a curve and the morning sun was shining just right through the trees. Granted, I could barely see out the windshield myself and had to slow way down for a second.

I got the red hands of death 2 weeks ago on the interstate in stop and go traffic when it was raining hard on AI4 latest FSD. No more than 35 mph max.

 

[Blue in NC]

Very true but like you said RJ has said a bunch of times early 2027. That can easily mean March 2027 - like their spring R2 release was June 10 which is technically still spring - and then that also might just mean start of production, which then means April-June 2027 before anyone gets one. The point is these timelines can moved by 3-6 months easily and then before you know it it’s MY28 and we are well into 2027.

I don’t think they’re in a rush to get out RAP1/LIDAR when demand is high for R2 as is. When sales and demand dip, you introduced new features. Textbook sales and economics.

I thought that part of the reason to get LIDAR out early is to assist with autonomy and fleet training. If so, I don't think Rivian is just intentionally waiting to use it as a sales incentive later on.

 

[sparked]

I thought that part of the reason to get LIDAR out early is to assist with autonomy and fleet training. If so, I don't think Rivian is just intentionally waiting to use it as a sales incentive later on.

Exactly, fleet data seems critical to Rivian for autonomy and catching up to Tesla. They aren't going to delay ACM3/LiDAR short of a production issue. All their big spending is on Autonomy and it has to pay off...

 

[Jeremy3292]

I thought that part of the reason to get LIDAR out early is to assist with autonomy and fleet training. If so, I don't think Rivian is just intentionally waiting to use it as a sales incentive later on.

Competing interests in corporate America happen all the time and they may have decided the sales numbers matter more than 6 more months of LIDAR. Cash flow positive may matter more. We’re all just speculating here at the end of the day, but neither scenario is far-fetched.

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