My point is that all of these steps feel very incremental. -$2B operating loss per year feels like a huge hurdle, which I’m not sure it’s surmountable without govt support, if Rivian is mostly following Tesla’s playbook—from chargers to car models
I don’t know of an alternative. But it just seems like Rivian is employing the same Tesla playbook from 10 years ago, when EV tax credits/discounts and regulatory credit sales were big tailwinds.
Now that these govt policies don’t exist, I just don’t know if sticking to this same Tesla playbook...
The U.S. market size alone isn’t enough for Rivian to make it. That’s my point. And exports to other countries will become more unreliable, particularly for EVs where China just dominates
I realize it’s a joke. But Europe and Canada are moving structurally towards China as a reliable trading partner. This won’t change in 2028 and beyond. All of this by the US is just shooting ourselves in the foot and pretending that we’re winning
It’s still not clear whether the GA plant will be 400k total capacity (ie over two stage buildout) or 300k total capacity.
The way I heard it, it seemed like Rivian is deciding to back away from two stages and just build it in one stage.