“Refresh” prediction

[Glstr]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ng-on-the-refreshed-rivian-r1-evs-232397.html

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[Rividiculous]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ng-on-the-refreshed-rivian-r1-evs-232397.html

That reads like an AI article summarizing all the speculation in this forum.

 

[sphereobject]

I’m predicting that the refresh is going to have a few subtle changes to distinguish it from the previous version (visually) and may have a couple design and function changes…but the focus for Rivian seems to be profitability. They aren’t losing money because they don’t have enough features or performance. They are losing money because they need to cut costs. Other auto manufacturers are priced lower and dropping prices. so I think overall the price will drop and the feature set and quality may have to drop as well. That might mean reducing features (camp speaker, quad motor option, etc). But when a company is seemingly trying to survive, I doubt the product will be a higher quality product. They have to compete on price. So feature reduction and efficiency are key. They are being hit from both sides…they are overpriced compared to competitors and they are still at a negative contribution margin per vehicle. Shutting down the factory shows you how serious the situation is for them

The slight visual difference would provide some value for those people that buy the post-refresh model to “show” they have a newer one. But otherwise I don’t expect a higher quality vehicle when cost cutting is the primary objective.

If you have a voucher, my advice is use it on a quad with a better warranty. Lease it b/c the value will drop a ton over the next few years. Get the $7500 tax credit and enjoy the ride.

I agree with this. I foolishly just traded my 2023 R1S quad for a 2024 R1S Quad. Leasing is the way to go for sure.

 

[sphereobject]

For pre-order holders, I think the dual motor is the best bang for the buck if you're ok with the performance. Under $60,000 before tax credits for a Rivian is just insane.

I personally would go with performance dual motor or quad motor with all terrain tires if I had a pre-order voucher.

If I didn't have a pre-order voucher, I would go with quad lease and then decided in 3 years if I want to buy the vehicle out or not. Taxes can make it a bit complicated if you live in a State where they have weird tax laws on leases.

This is the deal. I pondered getting the dual, but the extra year of warranty for the quad, and not wanting to give up the quad, persuaded me to get a new quad.

 

[evguy]

I would argue that Rivian would prefer to sell the vehicles made after the factory update to those with a voucher. Post update vehicles will be cheaper to make and likely lower price. That means that Rivian would lose less to those with a voucher after revision. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they have just announced the end of locked in pricing before the shutdown?

According to Rivian, the vouchers can only be applied in the Shop. So unless Rivian changes the voucher program, they will only apply to post-shutdown builds if Rivian chooses to put some of those vehicles in the Shop by Sept. 30. Whether that happens is anyone's guess, and I suspect Rivian won't decide until sometime this summer, after production is humming again.

 

[sphereobject]

The new motors aren't Enduro, they are Ascent. Have no idea on the content of the packaging at all but just found this updated drive unit lifter kit that exposes the name in a somewhat official capacity.

https://rivianservicetools.com/Catalog/Product/TSN00994-300-B

Some of the other info for these tools exposes that the Ascent front and Ascent rear use different lifting points, which wasn't true for Origin (Bosch) drive units.

Wow that's it! It looks like the tri motor (rear end?) will be called Ascent. The question is still whether there will be a new quad. This find makes it look like there might not be.

 

[sphereobject]

According to Rivian, the vouchers can only be applied in the Shop. So unless Rivian changes the voucher program, they will only apply to post-shutdown builds if Rivian chooses to put some of those vehicles in the Shop by Sept. 30. Whether that happens is anyone's guess, and I suspect Rivian won't decide until sometime this summer, after production is humming again.

Rivian really needs to sunset the pre-price-hike pricing (stated from someone who used that pricing twice). I want the company to be around to honor my warranty.

 

[Supratachophobia]

Rivian has repeatedly said this shutdown is primarily for manufacturing optimization and efficiency. I refuse to call it a refresh - that's such a vague term but generally implies some visible feature improvements. I don't consider changing the network architecture or heat pump a refresh in the traditional sense. I think if there are any obvious visible feature changes they will come in the form of downgrades to a lower entry price.

Possible feature downgrades - deletes are easy (some of these have been mentioned):
- Return of an Explore level trim - delete camp speaker, delete automated vent controls, delete wood. Maybe deleting or optioning the 120 VAC inverter and inflator, acknowledging that many R1S are suburban mall cruisers and will never use them.
- Wheels - cast, not forged, to lower cost.
- Delete the remaining single horn j/k

What I think will not happen - none of these contribute to lower cost or ease of production:
- NACS
- Electro roof - nice, desired feature, but adds complexity to the build process. This would be more of a true refresh item in conjunction with a new premium trim at higher cost.
- New steering wheel (and no they will not offer an upgrade to the existing R1 in the future - why would they?)

Wild Card possibilities:
- Enduro Tri or Quad replacing Bosch motors
- New cameras, as a "packaged" benefit of the transition to network architecture. Rivian does not design and build this system. It comes from OEMs as an OEM harware/firmware package. And NO there will not be a retrofit option for the cameras.

With how good at Rivian is at helping secrets, how long the shutdown is, and the timing of quad build stoppage, I just think there's more than cost cutting. But all your cuts would be welcome. Manual vents and no camp speaker I'm totally onboard with.

 

[Dark-Fx]

The question is still whether there will be a new quad. This find makes it look like there might not be.

I'm not sure why they wouldn't just use an enduro up front in a tri-motor configuration with Ascent rear. With there being an ascent front motor as well, then most likely there is something exceptional going on with the new motors that the enduro can't do.

 

[sphereobject]

I'm not sure why they wouldn't just use an enduro up front in a tri-motor configuration with Ascent rear. With there being an ascent front motor as well, then most likely there is something exceptional going on with the new motors that the enduro can't do.

I would think they would do Ascent in the rear and Enduro in the front. If the point of the shutdown is to streamline production, I can't imagine they would come up with an additional configuration for the front.

Ascent in the rear (assuming the Ascent is dual Enduro motors) and Enduro in the front would result in a tri motor config with 997.5 HP. Would Rivian market "it's more powerful than the Quad" as part of discontinuing the quad? It makes sense, we will see...

 

[Dark-Fx]

I would think they would do Ascent in the rear and Enduro in the front. If the point of the shutdown is to streamline production, I can't imagine they would come up with an additional configuration for the front.

Ascent in the rear (assuming the Ascent is dual Enduro motors) and Enduro in the front would result in a tri motor config with 997.5 HP. Would Rivian market "it's more powerful than the Quad" as part of discontinuing the quad? It makes sense, we will see...

The part number for the one lift kit literally says an ascent front drive unit. There is no way they would be keeping Bosch only for the front end and this excludes the enduro units.

 

[sphereobject]

The part number for the one lift kit literally says an ascent front drive unit. There is no way they would be keeping Bosch only for the front end and this excludes the enduro units.

That is true, you are correct. So new dual motor up front?

 

[Rividiculous]

According to Rivian, the vouchers can only be applied in the Shop. So unless Rivian changes the voucher program, they will only apply to post-shutdown builds if Rivian chooses to put some of those vehicles in the Shop by Sept. 30. Whether that happens is anyone's guess, and I suspect Rivian won't decide until sometime this summer, after production is humming again.

Well, maybe I’m missing something but Rivian said they weren’t going to restart configuration orders until later, not that they were going to ban voucher holders from configuring vehicles. So, unless they are going to be stockpiling refreshed R1s for several months (which would seem insane), refreshed R1s should be going into the Shop. How many pre-refresh R1s do we think they have?

 

[Rividiculous]

They are improving manufacturing processes and design to lower costs. So unless the item on your list lowers the costs to manufacturer, then it won't happen. This is a cost reduction effort. No increased options. It's not a refresh.

I disagree but am excited to find out whose predictions are right. That said: One Rivian fan’s cost reduction is another Rivian fan’s refresh.

 

[Rividiculous]

Rivian really needs to sunset the pre-price-hike pricing (stated from someone who used that pricing twice). I want the company to be around to honor my warranty.

Everyone who bought with the old pricing is welcome to send Rivian a check for the difference. That would also help! ?

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