Q4 2025 Earnings Report: Rivian expects to deliver 62-67K vehicles (including R2) for 2026

[DuoRivians]

Announced during earnings.

https://downloads.ctfassets.net/2md..._99.2_4Q25_Shareholder_Letter_web_quality.pdf

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[Zorg]

So 25 to 30k R2S in 2026?

 

[SANZC02]

Announced during earnings.

https://downloads.ctfassets.net/2md..._99.2_4Q25_Shareholder_Letter_web_quality.pdf

What surprised me was they did not tout finishing the plant expansion in the earnings report. Doing that project in 11 months was a feat and bodes well for anticipation of the Georgia facility.

To be fair they completed it in January, maybe they are saving it for the Q1 earnings call.

 

[SANZC02]

So 25 to 30k R2S in 2026?

My guess is mid 30s. I think they expect fewer R1 sales and that R2 will be at least half of the vehicle sales. I’ll be curious to see how that gets adjusted in the Q2/Q3 earnings report reports.

Was kind of surprised that Amazon is being reported at over 30k vehicles delivered. I see them a lot, would have thought that number would be higher.

 

[emoore]

My guess is mid 30s. I think they expect fewer R1 sales and that R2 will be at least half of the vehicle sales. I’ll be curious to see how that gets adjusted in the Q2/Q3 earnings report reports.

Was kind of surprised that Amazon is being reported at over 30k vehicles delivered. I see them a lot, would have thought that number would be higher.

Same here. I see more Rivian Amazon vans than their old Dodge vans in the Denver area. Guess they are probably localized in certain EV friendly cities.

 

[Cascada]

Improving unit economics for the Auto unit even with deliveries declining YoY and QoQ! Thats a great sign they are moving in the right direction. Give's me faith that they will be able to produce R2 at a profit.

Record low loss per vehicle delivered of $5,650 and (7%) auto margins. I was not expecting that, good job Rivian!

 

[savethemanual]

Stock is up 15 percent after market close...

I'm long though, so I will look again in five years

 

[mkg3]

Improving unit economics for the Auto unit even with deliveries declining YoY and QoQ! Thats a great sign they are moving in the right direction. Give's me faith that they will be able to produce R2 at a profit.

Record low loss per vehicle delivered of $5,650 and (7%) auto margins. I was not expecting that, good job Rivian!

If you say so. There is nothing that indicates their current performance to the R2 by looking at their report. They need regulatory credits to be profitable and still losing money on every vehicle they make.


From their shareholder letter:
Automotive
For the fourth quarter of 2025, automotive gross profit was $(59) million compared to $110 million for the same quarter in 2024, primarily due to $270 million of lower revenues from the sale of regulatory credits.

For the full year 2025, we generated negative automotive gross profit of $(432) million as compared to $(1,207) million for the full year 2024, primarily due to higher average selling prices and reductions in cost per vehicle.

 

[Cascada]

If you say so. There is nothing that indicates their current performance to the R2 by looking at their report. They need regulatory credits to be profitable and still losing money on every vehicle they make.

Got it, so you don't understand trends vs point in time. I suggest you look at the statements from Rivian executives from the past two years regarding cost cutting and see how that matches up with the improving Gross Margins for the Automotive unit ex regulatory credit over time. Then come back and state if you believe they are lying about producing R2 at a gross profit given their performance to date.

 

[derekmw]

What I worry about is with ramp up in production of R2, how fast they will keep up with building out more service centers. My last few appointments were 2-3 month wait times for simple things. I cringe to think how much worse that will get once a ton of R2's hit the road.

Tesla had that same problem as the model 3's ramped up but they caught up fairly quick with the buildout of additional service centers - it still took over a year though in our area before the wait times came back down.

 

[DuoRivians]

Got it, so you don't understand trends vs point in time. I suggest you look at the statements from Rivian executives from the past two years regarding cost cutting and see how that matches up with the improving Gross Margins for the Automotive unit ex regulatory credit over time. Then come back and state if you believe they are lying about producing R2 at a gross profit given their performance to date.

Rivian needs all the money it can get. Its 2026 ebitda is still projected to be -$2 billion loss. While it has $6.5 billion in cash/liquidity.

The loss of regulatory credits is a big hit to their bottom line and timeline to ebitda profitability, which is what really matters.

 

[mkg3]

Got it, so you don't understand trends vs point in time. I suggest you look at the statements from Rivian executives from the past two years regarding cost cutting and see how that matches up with the improving Gross Margins for the Automotive unit ex regulatory credit over time. Then come back and state if you believe they are lying about producing R2 at a gross profit given their performance to date.

The trend is worse. For the whole year they sold less and their SG&A increased along with stock compensation.

Without the regulatory credits and VWG JV/investment, it would look bleak. Software and services saved their butts for 2025. Go read the financial for yourself and you'll see.

I've listened to every earrings call since they've gone public and am a shareholder so I do pay attention.

 

[DuoRivian]

My guess is mid 30s. I think they expect fewer R1 sales and that R2 will be at least half of the vehicle sales. I’ll be curious to see how that gets adjusted in the Q2/Q3 earnings report reports.

Was kind of surprised that Amazon is being reported at over 30k vehicles delivered. I see them a lot, would have thought that number would be higher.

I expect they have set a very achievable number and if they release even a week earlier and ramp a little quicker then they will upgrade by Q3 results.

 

[BigSkies]

Rivian needs all the money it can get. Its 2026 ebitda is still projected to be -$2 billion loss. While it has $6.5 billion in cash/liquidity.

The loss of regulatory credits is a big hit to their bottom line and timeline to ebitda profitability, which is what really matters.

There's a lot of non-cash items in that EBITDA. Looking at Operating Cash Flows in yahoo (Q4 isn't there yet), they're in the ballpark of break-even on operating cash-flows for the last few quarters.

Capex is still a big chunk of change out the door on top of that though. They still have a ways to go for positive FCF.

The Gen2 R1's made a huge difference for cash flow. Like multi-billions a year difference.

 

[Mathme]

In our area they are building out a lot of service centers. The last time I had an issue there was one in the South SF Bay Area and when I went to schedule for the rear suspension recall last week there were three options to choose from. I chose the closest one to my house and the wait was about 2 weeks. HUGE Improvement!

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