Better than expected Q1 deliveries?

[Freddie]

Rivian has offloaded most of demo vehicles, shop at Notmal zip code had 32 R1Ss as of this morning and multiple ppl reporting there is very less inventory in their shops too. I am not paying attention to Ts but hope Rivian would have delivered a good chunk of them as well. Are these good indicators for better Q1 delivery numbers?

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[fyton2v]

Kinda hard to really know, but if they were on track to meet their forecast, you'd think they wouldn't be pushing so hard for people to take deliveries before the end of the month, plus offering decent deals on upgrades. I'd guess they won't meet the forecast. What I wonder, however, is if the current stock price is low enough that it won't really matter.

 

[ThatOneGuy]

Kinda hard to really know, but if they were on track to meet their forecast, you'd think they wouldn't be pushing so hard for people to take deliveries before the end of the month, plus offering decent deals on upgrades. I'd guess they won't meet the forecast. What I wonder, however, is if the current stock price is low enough that it won't really matter.

Eh, I disagree. Investors are more likely to prefer Rivian selling most of their inventory ahead of an extended factory shutdown as opposed to entering a shutdown with an excess of inventory. The former positively signals steady/high demand for their vehicles and suggests a period of pent up demand when production resumes, while the latter signals low/slowing demand as they enter a period of no factory output that investors already view negatively.

 

[fyton2v]

So, you think they'll deliver more vehicles in Q1 than forecasted? I'd like that to be true. They seem to have delivered a healthy number of vehicles in January, but if they were on track to hit their Q1 estimates, why work deals that lose Rivian even more money per vehicle?

The optimistic view, I suppose, is that shutdown will support a functional refresh of the R1 platform, and they need to get the older R1 out of the way. The pessimistic view is they're quite worried they won't deliver more vehicles this year vs last.

 

[VSG]

Eh, I disagree. Investors are more likely to prefer Rivian selling most of their inventory ahead of an extended factory shutdown as opposed to entering a shutdown with an excess of inventory.

So you think investors will be happy if Rivian has zero inventory when it enters the shutdown, and then goes for a full month without shipping ANY vehicle because there's nothing on-hand and none are being made?

I personally think Rivian is stocking up on excess vehicles so that they can continue to sell and ship during the shutdown. I think they are cranking out popular configurations not linked to a specific buyer/order, and that's one of the reasons they're pushing people to take something from the Shop - the Shop vehicles are made on spec, and these are all they will have available over the shutdown.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

I did my part this quarter!

Keep in mind that every vehicle Rivian is making right now is NOT sellable. They are waiting on a part to be delivered in April. So they are stockpiling unfinished vehicles. Per RJ on the earnings call.

I would imagine the workers will be finishing up these vehicles while the line is shutdown and being revamped, so deliveries will continue. But Q1 will not be great.

 

[RocklinRivian]

I did my part towards Q1 deliveries. Just anecdotal evidence of so many people in the forums and FB groups who were on the fence about Rivian, but decided to pull the trigger due to the attractive lease deal and taking delivery of a known product vs unknown product post factory retooling.

 

[DuoRivians]

There are fewer inventory in the Shop because Rivian is only showing those that can be delivered by quarter end. Rivian didn’t magically sell all of their inventory.

btw, what’s the expected delivery number?

 

[VSG]

2024 guidance is 57k, which does account for the 10%-15% decrease in Q1 for supplier change-over and does also account for the ~1 month shutdown in Q2.

So 2024 guidance isn't really the same as 2023 actual, because 2024 is the same volume in only 11- months.

 

[Freddie]

TipRanks says 13.5k is the expectation for Q1

 

[Twitter Fingers]

TipRanks says 13.5k is the expectation for Q1

Which means the analysts have set them up to fail, again, as the company guided to 10-15% LESS deliveries than Q4 which was 13,972.

So it should be more like 12,300 for Q1.

The analysts did the same in Q4 when they set delivery expectations way higher than the company guidance, causing them to "miss" expectations.

 

[fyton2v]

Interesting. Data from the site below shows that Rivian sold almost 10,200 units through Feb. March will likely end up being a better month because of the deals. I guess they may beat the forecast, and perhaps deliver as many as 16K.
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-usa-by-month

 

[Chris TX]

I imagine yeah, pushing inventory out for Q1 numbers, but also to clear out the current designs just in case they make some design changes after the retooling effort. It might be difficult to sell an older design when the new one is available. Smart move on both counts.

 

[Dave Cundiff]

What I don't know is: Did Amazon take delivery of the maybe 3000 vans that were still parked in Normal at the end of December? And, if so, is that in the February number above, or will it be counted in March?

If Amazon has resumed taking delivery -- which seems likely, it's in Amazon's best interest to standardize an energy-efficient fleet -- we and Wall Street should see some very nice Q1 numbers.

 

[Rividiculous]

I did my part this quarter!

Keep in mind that every vehicle Rivian is making right now is NOT sellable. They are waiting on a part to be delivered in April. So they are stockpiling unfinished vehicles. Per RJ on the earnings call.

I would imagine the workers will be finishing up these vehicles while the line is shutdown and being revamped, so deliveries will continue. But Q1 will not be great.

Thanks for posting that.

If there’s a build up of unfinished product, do we expect a long delay before the “refreshed” (and/or decontented) R1s start to appear in the shop?
Maybe they add the missing part(s) to those vehicles simultaneously with the retooling?

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