Chances for discounted pricing?

[SANZC02]

High interest rates, plus I'd offer the continued reduction in accelerated depreciation as the TCJA phase-out continues (was 100% through Dec 2022, 80% through Dec 2023 and drops to 60% in Jan 2024), is killing the high end vehicle market, especially SUV's and trucks, all around. I'd expect this to continue and prices will continue to fall.

For Rivian this will probably be some combo of:
- subsidized leasing with a pass-through of the $7,500 commercial EV credit and perhaps some interest rate buy-down/subsidy to keep headline prices higher
- standard pack gets released - guessing this could/would be a software-locked Large pack that someone can unlock later for a fee
- shift to more dual-motor with lower price points (and build costs) - this is already happening
- maybe introduction of a single-motor variant in late-2024, just a guess, to help keep pushing prices down until R2 is out
- actual price cuts - I think this will happen, in 2024 - Q2 or Q3 - but it will be the last step so as not to destroy lease residuals and resale values across the R1 market

Other thing that will happen is the mid-cycle refresh for the R1 platform due at the end of summer/early fall 2024. If timelines slip this becomes a 2025 model year vehicle presumably with lower parts costs and maybe a lower entry price due to some de-contenting with a lower trim level. I'm thinking coil suspension, no camp speaker, no flashlight, drop interior ambient lights, drop fog lights, cooled front seats, etc. and drop the MSRP by $5K. No rush to do it now, but as the backlog gets exhausted - and that pace is accelerating - they will need to take some or all of these steps to keep production growing. Delicate line to walk.

The standard pack is a different chemistry, it is LFP which is what the EDV is using. It is less energy dense but has other benefits such as can be charged to 100% daily and more duty cycles. Honestly people should really consider that as a price conscious option as charging that 100% is pretty close in range to the large pack at 70%.

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[emoore]

The standard pack is a different chemistry, it is LFP which is what the EDV is using. It is less energy dense but has other benefits such as can be charged to 100% daily and more duty cycles. Honestly people should really consider that as a price conscious option as charging that 100% is pretty close in range to the large pack at 70%.

Does LFP allow a better charging curve? If you can get over 100 Kw to 90% it would be huge. 270 miles would be plenty for 90% of people.

 

[SANZC02]

Does LFP allow a better charging curve? If you can get over 100 Kw to 90% it would be huge. 270 miles would be plenty for 90% of people.

I do not think so but if 95% of your charging is L2 at home it would not really matter.

If I get another one to replace the Model S, dual motor standard pack would be an attractive option.

 

[emoore]

I do not think so but if 95% of your charging is L2 at home it would not really matter.

If I get another one to replace the Model S, dual motor standard pack would be an attractive option.

Yeah that’s true. Even after a year and 4 road trips I still have the irrational range anxiety of road trips.

 

[CrazyOne]

I don’t think they should. Just like BMW has said they have no plans to get into that price war, Rivian should stay the course and focus on their goal to become profitable next year.

If they can figure out a way to directly apply the tax credit for vehicles it applies to, that would be smart. Leases are supposedly coming s00n, which will help get people in that can’t buy.

I saw a lot of IX vehicles at school pickup and looked it up. 799 lease is a sweet deal. BMW has reduced prices, if only via lease. I don't remember details, but discounts are close to 20k

 

[COdogman]

I lot of IX vehicles at school pickup and looked it up. 799 lease is a sweet deal. BMW has reduced prices, if only via lease. I don't remember details, but discounts are close to 20k

That is a sweet deal. I agree, it's definitely a price cut, but for some reason it doesn't come across as desperate. I hope Rivian does something similar. Then they can sell the lease returns as certified used and hopefully make up some of what they gave away on the leases.

 

[Whatever_this_is]

I lot of IX vehicles at school pickup and looked it up. 799 lease is a sweet deal. BMW has reduced prices, if only via lease. I don't remember details, but discounts are close to 20k

Yep and you can get similar lease payments for EQS SUV 7 seater if you know where to look.

 

[CrazyOne]

Yep and you can get similar lease payments for EQS SUV 7 seater if you know where to look.

Where should I look?

 

[CrazyOne]

That is a sweet deal. I agree, it's definitely a price cut, but for some reason it doesn't come across as desperate. I hope Rivian does something similar. Then they can sell the lease returns as certified used and hopefully make up some of what they gave away on the leases.

Does BMW prevent buyouts like Tesla does?

 

[Whatever_this_is]

Where should I look?

Leasehackr, go to forums and filter by state and make, and look around. Some dealers offering the best deals don’t post prices directly

 

[mini2nut]

I predict a cheaper Explore trim will make its debut in 2024 to help revive R1T sales.

 

[Tr4ckD4ys]

Does BMW prevent buyouts like Tesla does?

They do not… at least not with ICE vehicles.

 

[RivAW]

With everything happening in the EV market right now, what are the chances that Rivian is going to follow suit on Tesla, Lucid et cetera and lower its entry level prices for the R1T and R1S over the next few months?

IMO zero chance. Tesla can afford to play games with AI controlled pricing changes…Rivian cannot go backwards and increase their burn rate without driving themselves out of business…

 

[AYAYRON]

With everything happening in the EV market right now, what are the chances that Rivian is going to follow suit on Tesla, Lucid et cetera and lower its entry level prices for the R1T and R1S over the next few months?

Considering they lose money on each sale, they cannot discount. They are currently doing everything they can to reduce prices per truck production, enduro motors have profit, when they update to less ecu’s and frame updates in 2024 they will start becoming profitable; they’re not going to then turn around and do discounts when they finally get profitable. Maybe 10 years from now

 

[Goose]

I would love if Rivian decreased pricing, but I hope they don't. I think what Tesla did was skeazy, to put it nicely. Randomly reducing pricing on a vehicle model depreciates the model/trim and has a similar impact on buyers confidence. A better option would be to offer a cheaper trim model (like the deprecated "Explore" trim), this is what most OEM's do with ICE models.

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