Does Rivian have what it takes to survive?

[RivAW]

I’ve always been bullish on Rivian, but I recently experienced being a customer shopping for a Rivian and it makes me second guess if they have what it takes to survive. The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups. The corporate sales reps are not knowledgeable of the products. The vast drivetrain and battery options for a company that barely produces 50k vehicles a years seems like a poor strategy for increasing volume and becoming profitable.

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

I hope I’m wrong.

What local sale associates? As you should know, the buying process is almost entirely online (like Tesla). If you have questions, you are best off making an appointment for a test drive and ask your questions then...

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[Noplacelikeloam]

Nike - yes
Kohls - no (like Mervins before)
Macys - probably not (like most department stores past)...

We should advise Wall Street . . . . LMFAO

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

This noise again? Must we do this every single quarter? Waste of time speculating, from the outside. Pay attention to quarterly reports and stick with facts. Ignorance breeds fear. Fear leads to ungrounded speculation, which breeds even more fear.

Fact: Rivian, with all of their information (not all visible to those on the outside) maintain slight net positive outlook for Q4

Fact: VW JV increased from $5B to $5.8B and has already launched (and work underway) with Wassym at the head of it.

Fact: BEVs are only less than 10% of total market. While momentum and hype have cooled some, trajectory continues to be up, not down. Legacy OEMs may have trimmed their plans, but none have reversed course. Scrub the news channels on sales trends. With price cuts and incentives, all are up. At 10% of total market, there is plenty of room for all entrants.

The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups.

Fact: Every company has less than stellar employees. Tesla included.

Fact: If it's not due to quality of local sales rep... And due to them being too busy, that means there is so much demand that they aren't able to handle every customer with white gloves. That'd also mean Rivian is running lean (to keep CAPEX in check).

 

[Ohm Boy]

I’m no fortune teller so I have no idea if Rivian will survive. The product itself is their strong point and service is their weak point.

It is nice to see tons of Rivians on the road out here in LA. I probably run into at least 10 per day now. There are so many out here, in fact, we don’t even wave to each other anymore ?.

I know that folks have posted about the poor experiences they have had with service. I have had on a consistent basis the absolutely opposite experience. Having said that, I don’t have a large sample size. I had one problem with my R1T over the last 13 months and that was the gear guard cable locking mechanism that did not work. One chat session with service and a remote service guy was out in a week and the unit was replaced.

Other service calls have been for delivery at home for my wife’s R1S of 22” wheels (for effing amazing Nokian Tyre Hakkapeliitta 10 snow tires), and then making an appointment with Denver service center to have the vehicle recalibrated from 21” to 22” wheels. The experience at the Denver service center was excellent.

 

[Ohm Boy]

Agree with you I have my doubts. It’s not that a company has problems it’s how they recover from them and correct for the future. Tesla almost went bankrupt in 2015 but look at them now. Rivian needs to increase their overall image from the purchase experience to that dreaded appt with service. At this time I am not sure I will purchase another Rivian ( yes I have an R2 reservation) and because Tesla has no new offerings I do not want another Tesla I personally am disappointed in that Rivian is not openly speaking to the issues.

We have an R2 reservation about which my wife and I are stoked. I would buy it now if it were available. All I would need is a 9th mortgage and to set up a few GoFundMe’s. I had shoulder surgery a month ago and can’t drive. I miss driving both our R1T and R1S. I realize that is a “problem” that simply shows how disgustingly entitled I am!!

 

[George Kaplan]

Got to admit I have a concern when you sell your technology to the competitor, and not a very solid competitor financially. Maybe bigger plans in the making. And yes I am a Rivian owner since 2022 and a substantial stock holder

Hmmm…Tesla opened the Supercharger network to non-Tesla brands: Ford, Rivian, GM, Volvo, Polestar, soon VW/Porsche/Audi and Hyundai/Kia. The SC network was a distinct advantage Tesla had over its competitors, whose customers were flailing with broken L3 EA, EVgo, etc locations left and right.

Do we conclude that Tesla is in financial crisis, or made an unforced error is allowing the competitors’ cars to drink at its watering hole? Somehow Wall St is OK with all of this, especially as it creates an income stream for Tesla unrelated to car sales.

The joint venture isn’t really that different: It opened up new revenue stream for Rivian, monetizing work already done and paid for. The UIX is all that is part of this deal, leaving Rivian space to differentiate itself from the competition.

Furthermore—Scout…really? I get that we’re all nerdy about EVs here, but the reality is Scout may not have meaningful distribution until *3 years from now*. The company just broke ground in the manufacturing plant needed to build the cars it intends to sell, with an 18 month gestation period until plant is completed and has no ability to create Car 1 until then. By the time the car the company touted comes to market, that market may well be markedly different from today’s. If the $7,500 credit disappears with the incoming administration, then Scout may have to eliminate features announced last Fall to meet price points mentioned in the presser. OR, raise the pricing, which has worked well for Cybertruck, which was announced in 2019 with a base price of $40K and 400+ mi of range.

Let’s not assume anything about Scout until the company has mules out for testing, which is easily 2 years out. By the time Scout is delivering to retail customers, R2 could be in 2nd gen deliveries. Rivian will have a vast first-mover advantage over Scout, given initial assembly will be in Normal and not requiring for the GA plant to come online.

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

Rivian’s first deliveries took place at the very end of 2021. So after 3 full years why are you expecting them to produce and sell more than they have? Especially since you already set Tesla as the benchmark for some reason….

Going off this reasoning and chart Tesla was selling more than 4x 3 years in compared to the first year where Rivian has been in a standstill for since Q4 2023. Or am I missing something here?

 

[COdogman]

Going off this reasoning and chart Tesla was selling more than 4x 3 years in compared to the first year where Rivian has been in a standstill for since Q4 2023. Or am I missing something here?

Well, it depends on what year you consider Tesla started "production". Most Tesla stans seem to start that clock at 2017, but they started designing the Roadster in 2004 and production began in 2008. Makes a big difference IMO.

This is why comparing the 2 is pointless apples to oranges.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

The joint venture isn’t really that different: It opened up new revenue stream for Rivian, monetizing work already done and paid for. The UIX is all that is part of this deal, leaving Rivian space to differentiate itself from the competition.

The zonal computing architecture and dev stack. The UI/X is entirely up for each party to develop and execute. Basically same bones, different appearance/personality.

Scout will not be a threat. Long ways away from delivery. Plus look at hardware specs: solid rear axle, locker, etc.. It's much more off-road oriented* than the R1. And decisions behind that suggest it is intended to persuade gassers (with off-road and big truck aspirations) to go electric, than someone who is already sold on BEVs. Both models are also larger than the R1s. Take into consideration of all facts, they are going after completely different groups of customers. Those who cross-shop between the two will be a small minority. Plus, this large truck/SUV space is probably not even 1% of the sub-10% of total that BEVs currently hold.

*There are already some who complain the R1T is too big for trails. I can't imagine them finding the larger Scout Terra more appealing.

 

[George Kaplan]

The zonal computing architecture and dev stack. The UIX is entirely up for each party to develop and execute. Basically same bones, different appearance/personality.

Thank you. I was writing in haste while at work, and proved once again I can’t multitask for shit. The comment about UIX was supposed to be a negative, that UIX wasn’t part of the deal and would be differentiator. My fingers typed just the opposite. Stupid fingers…

 

[Hatbox_Ghoul]

Furthermore—Scout…really? I get that we’re all nerdy about EVs here, but the reality is Scout may not have meaningful distribution until *3 years from now*. The company just broke ground in the manufacturing plant needed to build the cars it intends to sell, with an 18 month gestation period until plant is completed and has no ability to create Car 1 until then. By the time the car the company touted comes to market, that market may well be markedly different from today’s. If the $7,500 credit disappears with the incoming administration, then Scout may have to eliminate features announced last Fall to meet price points mentioned in the presser. OR, raise the pricing, which has worked well for Cybertruck, which was announced in 2019 with a base price of $40K and 400+ mi of range.

Let’s not assume anything about Scout until the company has mules out for testing, which is easily 2 years out. By the time Scout is delivering to retail customers, R2 could be in 2nd gen deliveries. Rivian will have a vast first-mover advantage over Scout, given initial assembly will be in Normal and not requiring for the GA plant to come online.

Another consideration/challenge for Scout will be Service Centers. There has been a large focus on the factory, but they haven't really detailed much about the SC situation. Major Metro is "nice" but that puts them far behind Rivian's network, which in itself, is severely limited.

Scout will run into issues with ability to service these for years unless they integrate a Scout tech into select VW dealerships?

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Another consideration/challenge for Scout will be Service Centers. There has been a large focus on the factory, but they haven't really detailed much about the SC situation. Major Metro is "nice" but that puts them far behind Rivian's network, which in itself, is severely limited.

Scout will run into issues with ability to service these for years unless they integrate a Scout tech into select VW dealerships?

They told Kyle @ Out Of Spec that they plan to utilize VW dealerships for service support. However, the same dealerships also belong to lobby groups who are actively fighting any direct-sale models. So, it's early days, remains to be seen how things shape up. I don't see why not. Even without profits from vehicle sales, dealerships still stand to profit from service/repairs.

 

[George Kaplan]

They told Kyle @ Out Of Spec that they plan to utilize VW dealerships for service support. However, the same dealerships also belong to lobby groups who are actively fighting any direct-sale models. So, it's early days, remains to be seen how things shape up. I don't see why not. Even without profits from vehicle sales, dealerships still stand to profit from service/repairs.

It’s true that VW compensating the dealers for Scout service work is plus business for the back of the dealership, but that assumes the dealers are placated. They see direct-sales as an existential threat to their business, to the extent that some states still have restrictions on Tesla sales—the dealers’ lobby has juice in some statehouses. And the dealers often own multiple dealerships and multiple brand franchises, so there is an enormous amount of money invested by some of these dealership owners.

I don’t expect VW dealers to simply roll over on the promise of doing service work down the line—remembering that EVs have both specialized architecture which requires extra training, and need far fewer of the routine oil change/tune up/coolant replacement-type service appointments which are very profitable for the Service area. Money will need to change hands to VW dealers somewhere in the rollout process for Scout, which will diminish the profitability of the new brand.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I don’t expect VW dealers to simply roll over on the promise of doing service work down the line—remembering that EVs have both specialized architecture which requires extra training, and need far fewer of the routine oil change/tune up/coolant replacement-type service appointments which are very profitable for the Service area. Money will need to change hands to VW dealers somewhere in the rollout process for Scout, which will diminish the profitability of the new brand.

Of course not. They, just as anyone else (including Scout/VW) have the right to protect their trough. But as long as the process provides said dealers a profitable cut... I don't see why not. They can make $ on labor, parts, warranty claims (billed to Scout) just as they current do with the cars they do sell. They just fear all sales shifting to direct-sales.

 

[Hatbox_Ghoul]

Of course not. They, just as anyone else (including Scout/VW) have the right to protect their trough. But as long as the process provides said dealers a profitable cut... I don't see why not. They can make $ on labor, parts, warranty claims (billed to Scout) just as they current do with the cars they do sell. They just fear all sales shifting to direct-sales.

Yes, but also remember that VW also has pull on this. If a dealer wants to play hardball, they can simply threaten to pull the dealership. GM didn't allow Chevy dealers to just decide not to sell the Volt, and VW is big enough, they aren't going to let dealerships attempt to push them over.

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