FSD and Driver Assist - Long Term Future

[MidnightRun]

With all the talk of the upgraded tech in the Gen 2 R1S, the cameras and the computers, what are the odds that tech will matter significantly in Rivian’s roadmap to full self driving comparable to what Tesla has achieved?

I’ve been considering a low mileage 23/24 R1S vs the much more expensive 25 R1S. What’s been really pushing me toward the Gen 2 is the upgraded computers and cameras, but realistically, how many years before Rivian achieves FSD?

It seems like it might not matter in the end if they are still several years away and more tech upgrades would be needed to achieve FSD.

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[VSG]

realistically, how many years before Rivian achieves FSD

Why do you assume that's even one of their goals?

 

[MidnightRun]

Why do you assume that's even one of their goals?

Hmm… that’s a great point. It seems that’s where the market is headed. At the very least, it seems exceptional driver assist is the bare minimum.

That said, what’s you’re perspective on Rivian’s goals for Driver Assist and related features moving forward.

 

[VSG]

I don't have any links handy, but even back before the IPO Rivian has been saying in multiple places over a period of time that they are not trying to do FSD. That's a whole business model in and of itself, which would cost billions and take a decade or more to pull off. As a new company, it would be foolish IMO to spend the necessary effort to do that before the company was even stable. And the legal liability would be a nightmare - one crash and no more Rivian. They can't afford that risk this early in the game. Rivian has said they want to have the hardware capable to do this, but they weren't planning to do the software. I always thought they were exploring partnerships with other companies - that's what they're essentially doing now with some of the HWA features etc.

I think, like they have demonstrated in many other ways, Rivian is bootstrapping the technology and iterating its hardware platform to address gaps in the abilities needed for higher levels of autonomy.

As far as "that's where the market is headed", when talking about FSD I would say not really. IMO. Yes, Tesla is pushing it. Who else? Some companies like WayMo and Zoox etc. who are not aiming this at consumer vehicles. Everyone else is just adding a few features in hopes of attracting customers. So I would say that increasing use of technolgy to provide a better driving experience, sure. But FSD / autonomy? No, I don't think that's what most companies are trying for. Although maybe that's where most companies will end up, but I don't see that adoption happening any faster than EV adoption, in part because the current generation of 300 million cars in the US are going to be around for another 10-20 years.

Sure, there is some market push towards more driver assistance, but I think it's wrong to conclude that just because Tesla is doing FSD that Rivian also has to do it. Or to assume that Rivian IS doing it and they are just not as good at it as Tesla. Aside from some early marketing mention of hands-free steering, RJ isn't promising FSD or selling future FSD upgrades to Rivian owners or anything else along those lines - Rivian just isn't trying to compete in the FSD space. That's what makes the initial question so odd - it presumes there is a race in progress and Rivian is way behind the pack, when in reality Rivian is deliberately running a different route.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

To be honest, it’s refreshing that Rivian isn’t pushing vaporware like Tesla. I also haven’t seen that it is really in their business model. Agree that they have to focus on the hardware for now. Anything FSD will become licenseable in the future anyway. And it doesn’t seem like they have the capitol or expertise to come up with a better system than Tesla.

 

[MidnightRun]

I don't have any links handy, but even back before the IPO Rivian has been saying in multiple places over a period of time that they are not trying to do FSD. That's a whole business model in and of itself, which would cost billions and take a decade or more to pull off. As a new company, it would be foolish IMO to spend the necessary effort to do that before the company was even stable. And the legal liability would be a nightmare - one crash and no more Rivian. They can't afford that risk this early in the game. Rivian has said they want to have the hardware capable to do this, but they weren't planning to do the software. I always thought they were exploring partnerships with other companies - that's what they're essentially doing now with some of the HWA features etc.

I think, like they have demonstrated in many other ways, Rivian is bootstrapping the technology and iterating its hardware platform to address gaps in the abilities needed for higher levels of autonomy.

As far as "that's where the market is headed", when talking about FSD I would say not really. IMO. Yes, Tesla is pushing it. Who else? Some companies like WayMo and Zoox etc. who are not aiming this at consumer vehicles. Everyone else is just adding a few features in hopes of attracting customers. So I would say that increasing use of technolgy to provide a better driving experience, sure. But FSD / autonomy? No, I don't think that's what most companies are trying for. Although maybe that's where most companies will end up, but I don't see that adoption happening any faster than EV adoption, in part because the current generation of 300 million cars in the US are going to be around for another 10-20 years.

Sure, there is some market push towards more driver assistance, but I think it's wrong to conclude that just because Tesla is doing FSD that Rivian also has to do it. Or to assume that Rivian IS doing it and they are just not as good at it as Tesla. Aside from some early marketing mention of hands-free steering, RJ isn't promising FSD or selling future FSD upgrades to Rivian owners or anything else along those lines - Rivian just isn't trying to compete in the FSD space. That's what makes the initial question so odd - it presumes there is a race in progress and Rivian is way behind the pack, when in reality Rivian is deliberately running a different route.

I think you make some great points, but ultimately the biggest is that while not everyone is running full speed toward FSD, that is likely where everyone will end up unless they want to look like they got left behind.

Whether that’s accomplished through in house development or licensing software from whoever does it first/best, the end point will be the same for the next generation manufacturers.

Your point to the current state of Rivian is very valid though. It probably wouldn’t make sense for them to pursue this YET. which begs the question, what others features has Rivian promised or might they deliver that makes the new processing and hardware necessary?

 

[emoore]

I think you make some great points, but ultimately the biggest is that while not everyone is running full speed toward FSD, that is likely where everyone will end up unless they want to look like they got left behind.

Whether that’s accomplished through in house development or licensing software from whoever does it first/best, the end point will be the same for the next generation manufacturers.

Your point to the current state of Rivian is very valid though. It probably wouldn’t make sense for them to pursue this YET. which begs the question, what others features has Rivian promised or might they deliver that makes the new processing and hardware necessary?

True self driving will take many many decades despite what the crazy one says. We need real AI to have true self driving and that’s a long way off.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

It's a valid question. Not sure about "FSD". Tesla is far ahead of everyone else and they are also doing it differently than everyone else.

I can only speculate here but I would say no current Rivian vehicle will likely support Level 5 autonomy ever.

The case for Gen2 is an expanding ADAS feature set over time. Currently the only additional feature it has over Gen1 is full auto lane changes vs assisted in Gen1.

How long do you typically keep cars and how long do you plan on keeping this one?

Rivian system is also very much geofenced too so also want to make sure it works on the roads you frequently travel.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

The Gen 1 cameras look great to me. Granted you can’t pull a license plate off a car 30 feet away, but hopefully that won’t be my goal. I have a Gen 1 and I’m thoroughly thrilled with it. I’ve never had so much fun driving, expect perhaps in my first car.

On the subject of FSD I must say the Gen 1’s have a wonderful system going. The self-steering is amazing on the freeway, navigating around turns and keeping a 2-second distance in front at all times. It would be nice to have lane changing, just to keep the vibe going, but I’m pretty sure I can handle that part.

Keep in mind that Gen 2’s add and subtract. In Gen 2 you’ll get a driver-facing camera. Feel like being watched? If not get Gen 1. Gen 2 is more expensive, you don’t get a key fob (correct me if I’m wrong) and you get nickeled and dimed for tow hooks, floor mats. A post just today said a cubby in the back was changed to cup holders, to their chagrin.

Gen 1 is an AMAZING vehicle. Don’t feel at all bashful about choosing it.

 

[Zoidz]

Note that nowhere does this mention RJ saying anything specific or even generalized about Rivian FSD while mentioning Tesla FSD. Rivian FSD is a long way off.

"At Morgan Stanley’s 12th Annual Laguna Conference, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe confirmed that the company is developing its own AI-driven self-driving technology and has no plans to license Tesla’s Full-Self Driving (FSD). Instead, Rivian is focused on creating an in-house system tailored to their vehicles, maintaining full control over design, functionality, and safety features.

While Scaringe didn’t comment on whether Rivian might license its self-driving stack in the future, interest is growing, especially after their joint venture with Volkswagen. For now, Rivian remains committed to building a unique and advanced system that could become a key differentiator in the electric vehicle market."

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