Is Rivian getting desperate?

[Supratachophobia]

A sport utility vehicle (SUV) is a car classification that combines elements of road-going passenger cars with features from off-road vehicles, such as raised ground clearance and four-wheel drive.
EV9 is a station wagon
Rivian > EV9

What it is =/= what customers see

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[ThumprMN]

Someone’s getting desperate, but it’s not Rivian.

 

[Eric9610]

I want to put something into perspective for everyone... The Standard Pack DM R1T is currently $30k less than a cybertruck and gets more real range. Think about that... Rivian knew exactly what they were doing.

Also the perfect lineup is coming to shape

R3 $25-40K
R2 $49-60K
R1 $69-110K+

Looks like a full product lineup to me.

 

[R1TS]

I want to put something into perspective for everyone... The Standard Pack DM R1T is currently $30k less than a cybertruck and gets more real range. Think about that... Rivian knew exactly what they were doing.

Also the perfect lineup is coming to shape

R3 $25-40K
R2 $49-60K
R1 $69-110K+

Looks like a full product lineup to me.

A higher trim R2 with options is definitely going to have a higher delta than just $11K over a stripped down R2. How can you say the delta for R3 will be $15K and the delta for R1 is $41K, but only $11K for R2?

Even just adding wheels, exterior paint, and a non-black interior is almost $10K. I will bet that the price range for R2 goes all the way to at least $75K. Maybe tops out at $80K.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

I check the R1S shop daily because, well who the hell knows why, I enjoy following the company. The only dual motor vehicles available now are max packs. They are having no problem moving the smaller packs. The standard and standard+ vehicle were gone within hours. The large packs take 1-2 days to sell.

The whole idea that Rivian needs to be backlogged forever or they are failing as a company is nonsense. They are transitioning from a period of filling orders to the new normal of selling to the general public, and from my view they are doing a fine job. More changes and more demand levers will be pulled throughout the year.

 

[Zoidz]

I disagree. Most of the different features are apples and oranges personal preferences and not deal breaking decision factors. Deep down it's between two 7 seater electric SUVs that go 300 miles, that's it.

Not sure if you haven't compared the specs, don't understand the specs, or have rose colored glasses on, but it's one of those three.

 

[ryunited]

I check the R1S shop daily because, well who the hell knows why, I enjoy following the company. The only dual motor vehicles available now are max packs. They are having no problem moving the smaller packs. The standard and standard+ vehicle were gone within hours. The large packs take 1-2 days to sell.

The whole idea that Rivian needs to be backlogged forever or they are failing as a company is nonsense. They are transitioning from a period of filling orders to the new normal of selling to the general public, and from my view they are doing a fine job. More changes and more demand levers will be pulled throughout the year.

This! Anything in dm+large pack and under moves in hours. I had a call with a guide on Friday (really impressive service actually) and she said there was only one of my config in the country right now and sadly on other side of the country...

I am checking all the time and the only stuff there is >$95k most of the time. It seems opening up the store is an efficient way of clearing upper trim stuff that people haven't claimed and they need to get off their books.

 

[fbkr]

I agree. Hard to say that there's a demand problem when all non-max dual motor inventory is snapped up instantly.

At best you could make the case that if Rivian hadn't dropped MSRP and leasing rates/opened up the shop then R1S inventory would be piling up. There is probably some validity to that.

RJ said last year that Rivian had backlog deep into 2024 but I doubt anyone thinks that's the case anymore.

 

[Eric9610]

I agree. Hard to say that there's a demand problem when all non-max dual motor inventory is snapped up instantly.

At best you could make the case that if Rivian hadn't dropped MSRP and leasing rates/opened up the shop then R1S inventory would be piling up. There is probably some validity to that.

RJ said last year that Rivian had backlog deep into 2024 but I doubt anyone thinks that's the case anymore.

For LE models I believe this is true, Now how many people will switch from an LE to inventory model could shorten this.

 

[Whatever_this_is]

I check the R1S shop daily because, well who the hell knows why, I enjoy following the company. The only dual motor vehicles available now are max packs. They are having no problem moving the smaller packs. The standard and standard+ vehicle were gone within hours. The large packs take 1-2 days to sell.

The whole idea that Rivian needs to be backlogged forever or they are failing as a company is nonsense. They are transitioning from a period of filling orders to the new normal of selling to the general public, and from my view they are doing a fine job. More changes and more demand levers will be pulled throughout the year.

I check it multiple times daily as well, DM large and below never piled up except ones with all kinds of add ons, even before the lower lease payment adjustment. However this is the first week after multiple demand levers have been pulled including a price reduction. Recall when Tesla MY had people rushing to the stores at YE 2022 when they had $7.5k reduction in price, 2 weeks before the $16k price reduction? They are now reporting growth issues even with MY about $20k below the peak and MX $40k below the peak (though admittedly MX price was way too high before). We will see how Rivian fairs after a few weeks when the initial reaction to the demand levers die down.

 

[240vPlug]

Bottom line.... Rivian is very well managed. I'm not concerned about inventory piling up. They will manage demand effectively.

 

[CharonPDX]

I disagree. Most of the different features are apples and oranges personal preferences and not deal breaking decision factors. Deep down it's between two 7 seater electric SUVs that go 300 miles, that's it.

So… You think the $27,000 Volkswagen Tiguan and the $150,000 BMW Alpine XB7 cross-shop against each other? They're both gas-powered 7-seater SUVs, after all. Deep down, they're the same vehicle with just personal preference differences.

Sure, EV9 and R1S are much closer together in price, but they're still targeting different markets. If all you care about is "7 seater electric SUV that goes 300 miles," the EV9 wins, hands down. (And there's no reason to upgrade to the GT-Line that is closer to the price of the R1S.)

R1S has a market, and in that market, it is *VERY* well priced. EV9 is alone in its market.

Sure, the base-dual-motor-standard-range R1S may cross-shop against the EV9 GT-Line, but only barely.

And according to my local Kia dealer's website, I could go right now and drive home with an EV9 GT-Line today for $70,615. Rivian doesn't yet offer the Standard or Standard+ battery packs in the online shop for "1-6 week delivery," although I could order one with unknown delivery timing for $71,150 assuming Standard battery qualifies for the US federal tax credit.

 

[evguy]

Desperate? No. Prudent? Yes. I think the new variants help them reduce the entry point price for R1 without lowering their average selling price (hopefully), which is a smart move in the current macro environment. Supports the broader goal of ramping sales while reducing overall cost. I still expect one or two more capital raises before R2 production begins, not due to desperation but to ensure an adequate cushion for when the new plant comes online.

 

[nc10]

Personally im going to hold out until things stabilize,

I think, in the best case, Rivian has been and will be in Panic / startup mode for 4-5 more years.

 

[Whale Blubber]

Lease pricing means residuals are expected to be high - this is good news across the board for owners and new buyers. No bank in their right mind would underwrite a lease if the planned residuals were way off.

Can you give me The Office version of what you mean by residuals being high in the leasing context (ref: Oscar explaining the meaning of a budget surplus to Michael using lemonaid stand analogy)

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