New $59k Cybertruck version announced

[peace and quiet]

Because you're jealous.

Literally full of shit…

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[COdogman]

 

[Redline]

Literally none of this is true. lol.

Correct, everything he said is a lie.

As someone who is a full time trader, for the last 6 years, I can easily spot he’s a fake.

 

[Thedude]

Literally none of this is true. lol.

It’s certainly possible if someone got in early enough on a few of those companies. I’ve never met someone who actually has money who talks like that though.

 

[Nadus]

Yup. This bet that Robotaxi gonna replace personal car ownership seems like a long shot to me.

I've never understood the hype around robotaxis. Even if autonomous driving is fully solved. I did a quick search and the total worldwide revenue for taxi/ridehailing services in 2024 was $271 billion USD.

With an extremely generous price to revenue (P/S) ratio of 4.0, that would value the entire worldwide ridehailing industry at just over $1 trillion USD.

And this valuation is spread across every single taxi/robotaxi company. So even if Tesla were to capture the ENTIRE industry overnight, the company is still overvalued.

I don't know why investors have fallen so hard for the hype. Maybe they get irrationally exuberant when they hear the term "robotaxi"?

 

[RandomMcRandomFace]

I've never understood the hype around robotaxis. Even if autonomous driving is fully solved. I did a quick search and the total worldwide revenue for taxi/ridehailing services in 2024 was $271 billion USD.

With an extremely generous price to revenue (P/S) ration of 4.0, that would value the entire worldwide ridehailing industry at just over $1 trillion USD.

And this valuation is spread across every single taxi/robotaxi company. So even if Tesla were to capture the ENTIRE industry overnight, the company is still overvalued.

I don't know why investors have fallen so hard for the hype. Maybe they get irrationally exuberant when they hear the term "robotaxi"?

I think the underlying theory is that car ownership will decline and ride-hailing will increase so car makers that have autonomous vehicles will both increase car sale market share and capture an increasingly large pie on ride hailing. My personal view is this is possible, perhaps even likely, over time. What puzzles me is why people seem to be so confident that Tesla is going to be a winner in that market when they are so behind (way behind Waymo) on actual autonomy. They have no viable product right now. People seem to just assume they will because of FSD’s progress (which has been impressive). I just don’t know that they ever actually get there on current hardware and even if they do, why that’s going to be the dominant tech in the space.

 

[Zorg]

So far, seems to me that Waymo is simply replacing Uber drivers, not car ownership. There are about 10M Uber/Lyft drivers worldwide. Doesn't seem like a very big TAM to me.

 

[Zoidz]

I don't know why investors have fallen so hard for the hype. Maybe they get irrationally exuberant when they hear the term "robotaxi"?

Just like anything tagged with "AI".

 

[Motoarzon]

Correct, everything he said is a lie.

As someone who is a full time trader, for the last 6 years, I can easily spot he’s a fake.

Well, as I've said I been buying stocks since age 25, built a great folio with 2.5decades in the market. Added even more heavily during times of crashes like the great recession, covid and other bear markets. Fully retired early at age 49 with no debt and no mortgage. With all my spare time I have since been able to ramp up my trading. I guess you can say my "part-time" side hustle now is options trading. I mostly only "sell" covered calls and naked puts to generate extra money. Since my folio is quite large (ie. have 5,933 Tesla shares alone and a nice amount of all the other Mag7) I can leverage a lot and have a decent amount of contracts out there and on the go at any given time. My bank allows me a decent amount of margin so I sell naked puts and "double dip". Nice selling a call and a put at the same time guaranteeing you'll automatically win one of them right off the bat. I'm quite conservative though since it's retirement money. Only leveraging about 20% of my folio. Generally write my CC's & NP's between 15-25% OTM at 30-45days...the premiums are much, much smaller but the chances to win and not have to roll them up and out for the calls, or down and out for the puts are quite slim, rarely ever happens...got pinched a couple times though when Tesla had it's run-up's, and most recently when MSTR blew past and below one of my naked put strikes. Either way, all the smaller premium wins add up.
By the way. When you say you're a "full-time" trader you know you're doing it full-time because the folio ain't big enough yet. When that folio grows giving you a lot more to leverage, You'll only need to be doing it "part-time" like me.

 

[Noplacelikeloam]

This is coming. There was a hidden easter egg showing it on an actual Tesla corporate promo video of future products. I would dump my R1S in a heartbeat.

And people would point and laugh at you. No thanks.

 

[Noplacelikeloam]

Outside of "the looks" the Cybertruck actually is a far better vehicle than the R1T. Price, technology, features, functions, performance, charging, service ect...
Again, take the physical looks out of the equation.

Well, thats your opinion.

 

[Motoarzon]

I've never understood the hype around robotaxis. Even if autonomous driving is fully solved.

Uber made $52B and Lyft made $6Billion last year. Whomever has a car that can offer the same rides for 1/3 the price because you no longer have to pay a driver and electricity and maintenance is cheaper than for a gas car, you will see the Tesla Robotaxis ramp and dramatically take market share until eventually that 52B+6B will become all Tesla's revenue.
But, It's not only the Robotaxis. Whomever has FSD to the public first is going to take off with the lions share of new car sales the way Apple took off with the iPhone.
Example: Do you have kids or teenagers? There are "millions" of parents who become full-time taxi drivers for their kids. Because you got to go pick them up and drop them off to their part time jobs, shuttle your kids to little league, the friends house ect...
Imagine you have a car that your whole family shares, including grandma. If your car can return home on it's own or be summoned to the location of another family member you just share it.
When FSD "unsupervised" exists to the public every parent in the world will be dumping their existing cars and asking which ever manufacturer that is (likely Tesla), to please take their money.

 

[Zorg]

Uber made $52B and Lyft made $6Billion last year. Whomever has a car that can offer the same rides for 1/3 the price because you no longer have to pay a driver and electricity and maintenance is cheaper than for a gas car, you will see the Tesla Robotaxis ramp and dramatically take market share until eventually that 52B+6B will become all Tesla's revenue.
But, It's not only the Robotaxis. Whomever has FSD to the public first is going to take off with the lions share of new car sales the way Apple took off with the iPhone.
Example: Do you have kids or teenagers? There are "millions" of parents who become full-time taxi drivers for their kids. Because you got to go pick them up and drop them off to their part time jobs, shuttle your kids to little league, the friends house ect...
Imagine you have a car that your whole family shares, including grandma. If your car can return home on it's own or be summoned to the location of another family member you just share it.
When FSD "unsupervised" exists to the public every parent in the world will be dumping their existing cars and asking which ever manufacturer that is (likely Tesla), to please take their money.

That's wildly optimistic to say the least. Uber/Lyft revenue is worldwide so it'll be a while before driverless taxis are available everywhere. It's even more optimistic to think that anyone company will take 100% of that market. Finally, Tesla is far from being the only one in that space. The shuttling of kids and grandma is frankly a better use case for personal level 4 ADAS (what RJ has described).

Car as a service is a quite the leap of faith. If the Robotaxi is a dud, Tesla is in big trouble.

 

[RandomMcRandomFace]

Well, as I've said I been buying stocks since age 25, built a great folio with 2.5decades in the market. Added even more heavily during times of crashes like the great recession, covid and other bear markets. Fully retired early at age 49 with no debt and no mortgage. With all my spare time I have since been able to ramp up my trading. I guess you can say my "part-time" side hustle now is options trading. I mostly only "sell" covered calls and naked puts to generate extra money. Since my folio is quite large (ie. have 5,933 Tesla shares alone and a nice amount of all the other Mag7) I can leverage a lot and have a decent amount of contracts out there and on the go at any given time. My bank allows me a decent amount of margin so I sell naked puts and "double dip". Nice selling a call and a put at the same time guaranteeing you'll automatically win one of them right off the bat. I'm quite conservative though since it's retirement money. Only leveraging about 20% of my folio. Generally write my CC's & NP's between 15-25% OTM at 30-45days...the premiums are much, much smaller but the chances to win and not have to roll them up and out for the calls, or down and out for the puts are quite slim, rarely ever happens...got pinched a couple times though when Tesla had it's run-up's, and most recently when MSTR blew past and below one of my naked put strikes. Either way, all the smaller premium wins add up.
By the way. When you say you're a "full-time" trader you know you're doing it full-time because the folio ain't big enough yet. When that folio grows giving you a lot more to leverage, You'll only need to be doing it "part-time" like me.

I’ll just go ahead and say if you can retire at 49 based on that small of stock portfolio, we have different lifestyles (and I am quite certain I am not jealous of yours . . .).

 

[Thedude]

I’ll just go ahead and say if you can retire at 49 based on that small of stock portfolio, we have different lifestyles (and I am quite certain I am not jealous of yours . . .).

Assuming it’s true, almost 6000 shares of Tesla would net about $1.9 million after taxes. Put that in an account returning 4% and with a paid off house it wouldn’t be hard to live off $60k/year after taxes while keeping the large principal safe for emergencies or splurges. And supposedly that’s just one of his holdings.

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