Only 25000 Rivians to be built this year.

[dirtdiver]

So one thing to consider. Many of us have reservations for other electric vehicles. As the Rivian production stretches out I imagine many of those reservations will be canceled. So, I guess Im expecting that wherever each of us is in the queue - as time moves along the line will get shorter and our spot will move up.

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[raj]

You will likely get the credit because Lightening has started and there is a slow phase out so the full credit is available within that quarter when they meet 200000 units so that can add a couple of months on. Then it halves for six months.

@Guy thanks for the info. The GT is over 4k more than the LR Y, without the tax credit did not make sense. Could not reserve the lower versions, Ford has closed reservations.

 

[orionexp]

The closer I get pushed to 2023 the more likely I am to just wait for Max pack. Hmmm.

Feeling now that max pack won’t be available until 2024 given the delays. That’s too long for me. Already switched to large Adventure.

 

[idea man]

Feeling now that max pack won’t be available until 2024 given the delays. That’s too long for me. Already switched to large Adventure.

I am starting to think the same thing. If they ever call. My window to spend $90K on a car/truck is going to close in the next two years.

 

[IronM5]

I'd say yes. I have July/Sept 2022 estimate, 0% chance that happens now.

I received my reinstatement confirmation this week, with an estimated delivery of Feb 2023. I placed my orginal order about 6 months ago and roughly estimated that I was about 35k in line. I always figured I'd see the truck in mid '23, posssibly summer. At this point I'd be thrilled to get it as early as Feb!

 

[888tom888]

I reinstated my R1S order. I ordered in mid 2020. My delivery period is July-Sept 2022. With the reveal of 25,000. they did not mention how they are going to parcel them out. how many R1T's vs R1S? Me thinking I will not be getting my R1S this year. As I've stated before, I have a Fisker Ocean deposit and once Cadilac opens Lyriq orders I"m going to try and get one of those. Lesson, always have a Plan B,C

 

[RayzorBEV]

I'd say yes. I have July/Sept 2022 estimate, 0% chance that happens now.

I'm in the same boat...

 

[AllInev]

I pre-ordered an R1S in Sept 2019 and my delivery window was Oct-Dec 2022. Looks like another Christmas without a Rivian.

With a 2019 preorder, you should think about switching to an R1T

It's mostly chips and batteries. The RCV very likely uses a lot fewer chips.

So Rivan told us yesterday that they are supply-constrained. Why is it so hard for my little pea brain to understand why Rivian could not have procured enough parts starting in late 2018 for producing more than 25k R1 and RCV vehicles?

Even with global supply constraints, other auto manufacturers have procured enough parts to produce more than 25k vehicles. I don't think it was necessarily a cash problem. Even before the IPO, Rivian had billions in cash, right?

Was Rivian trying to immediately implement a Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing process to save on inventory costs? If so, in hindsight, that seems to have been a penny-wise but pound-foolish move.

 

[SANZC02]

I reinstated my R1S order. I ordered in mid 2020. My delivery period is July-Sept 2022. With the reveal of 25,000. they did not mention how they are going to parcel them out. how many R1T's vs R1S? Me thinking I will not be getting my R1S this year. As I've stated before, I have a Fisker Ocean deposit and once Cadilac opens Lyriq orders I"m going to try and get one of those. Lesson, always have a Plan B,C

That 25k is all vehicles so includes EDV deliveries.

 

[AllInev]

How they hell did they have almost NO ramp in production from Q4 to Q1???

Not exactly sure. But there's still 3 weeks left in Q1 and the line was shutdown 10 days in January. So there's still hope there will be a ramp increase in Q1 vs. Q4.

 

[kylealden]

Was Rivian trying to immediately implement a Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing process to save on inventory costs? If so, in hindsight, that seems to have been a penny-wise but pound-foolish move.

This is probably a pretty accurate assessment, but it's worth being fair to Rivian here - the entire global supply chain, pre-2020, was built on the JIT approach. Sitting on piles of inventory is bad for all kinds of reasons (limits your design agility, stockpiles risk locally, potentially massive inventory costs, limited ability to cure if you discover parts are defective after warehousing them for four years, to name a few).

Companies run quarter to quarter and every incentive has historically pushed them to operate as close to the razor's edge with their supply chain as possible. Modern capitalism simply hasn't had the macro incentives in place to contemplate or prepare for massive shocks to the supply chain. Until suddenly it did for everyone all at once in 2020, and shit hit the fan.

So yes, Rivian probably could have hugely mitigated this in 2018-2020 by ordering certain parts in advance - but doing so would have been more or less crazy by the pre-COVID consensus view.

 

[sub]

With a 2019 preorder, you should think about switching to an R1T

So Rivan told us yesterday that they are supply-constrained. Why is it so hard for my little pea brain to understand why Rivian could not have procured enough parts starting in late 2018 for producing more than 25k R1 and RCV vehicles?

Even with global supply constraints, other auto manufacturers have procured enough parts to produce more than 25k vehicles. I don't think it was necessarily a cash problem. Even before the IPO, Rivian had billions in cash, right?

Was Rivian trying to immediately implement a Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing process to save on inventory costs? If so, in hindsight, that seems to have been a penny-wise but pound-foolish move.

I doubt they had finalized the design for most parts back in 2018. So they couldn't have started hoarding parts pre pandemic, because they didn't know what parts they would use, and they had no reason to think getting parts would be a problem.

And they explained why their supplier problems are worse than other auto manufacturers on the call. They said the chip suppliers want to deliver each customer a "multiple" of what each customer used this time last year. Since Rivian wasn't building cars a year ago their allocation by that formula is 0. 80% of 0 is 0. 200% of 0 is 0.

 

[888tom888]

When factoring the Amazon orders. Looks like I"ll be driving anything but a Rivian. Wouldn't it be nice if they gave you an easy way to see where you stand in the que? I have NO idea where my order is. And I believe if I knew I'd make an informed decision. They can't really need my depo$it that badly, can they???

 

[AllInev]

Bottom line? Most reservation holders will be waiting ANOTHER 1-2 years for delivery.

With reservation pricing being reinstated Rivian will lose even MORE money on their trucks since the price of steel, copper wiring harnesses, batteries, tires, seat belts, etc. will continue to rise in 2023-2024.

I will most likely be accepting my XLT Lightning reservation later this year (only 12-15k trucks to be built in 2022) and driving it until I need to make a decision between a Cybertruck or a R1T reservation.

Damn, I like the truck in that picture! Who makes that? I want one!!!

 

[AllInev]

I hope they can beat it. The way he was talking made it sound like a low estimate, I think the street read it like that and even if they make it, they would get dinged. Fingers crossed they can get north of 27500, they would beat it by 10% but not look like sandbagging.

I'd actually be fine with a little more sandbagging on Rivian's part. It seems like the only "surprise and delight" they've delivered recently happened March 1st and March 3rd.

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