Rivian Delivery estimate

[crcole]

While Rivian vehicles are awesome, their marketing is straight out of big carmaker playbook: treat customers like mushrooms by keeping them in the dark and feeding them B.S. This leaves us on our own to figure out order status..

Rivian communicated to Wall Street, but not to customers, that pre-orders by end of Q3'21 and Q4'21 were 48,390 and 71,000, respectively. This gives a quarterly order growth rate of 50%, enabling estimation of the cumulative pre-orders at the end of each '20 and '21 quarter.

Q1'20___Q2'20___Q3'20___Q4'20___Q1'21___Q2'21___Q3'21___Q4'21
4900___7000___10,000___15,000___22,500___33,000__48,400__71,000

There are many guesses that have floated around about pre-order numbers. One was in Feb'21, by Frost & Sullivan of 10,000 pre-orders by end of Q4'20. This is within one quarter of the above estimation using 50% pre-order growth rate.

Rivian communicated to Wall Street that in Q1'22 it made about 1,500 vehicles and in 2022 it will make 25,000. This gives a quarterly production growth rate of about 150%, enabling estimation of the cumulative production at the end of each '22 quarter.

Q1'22___Q2'22___Q3'22___Q4'22
1500___4000___10,000___25,000

Putting the two together:

pre-order in: 2018, 2019___2020___Q1'21___Q2'21-Q4'21
delivery in: _____Q2'22____Q3'22___Q4'22____2023

If cumulative production of 25,000 vehicles is delayed by a quarter, delivery estimates are also delayed by a quarter.

Comments?

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[Guy]

25k for this year includes EDVs so the assumption now that 15000 R1S will ship and then continue to ramp and close out next year at the 10k a month run rate as they go into 2024.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

My comment is:

Why on earth would you put your address in your post?!?

On the other hand... thanks for keeping the world a place that needs people in InfoSec, like me.. :mind_blown:

 

[crashmtb]

have you read anything on these forums or, for that matter, tried buying anything made of wood, metal or what has electronic components in the last year and a half?

given that you have helpfully included your address(it must be nice living in a hotel, someone folds your towels for you)…

Would you like us to mail you our comments?

would you like some new magazine subscriptions?

 

[No.92]

have you read anything on these forums or, for that matter, tried buying anything made of wood, metal or what has electronic components in the last year and a half?

given that you have helpfully included your address(it must be nice living in a hotel, someone folds your towels for you)…

Would you like us to mail you our comments?

would you like some new magazine subscriptions?

Looks like he/she is selling their place. Was this an underhanded way of advertising this property on the market? It's a nice place but a bit out of my budget for a vacation spot.

 

[crashmtb]

My comment is:

Why on earth would you put your address in your post?!?

On the other hand... thanks for keeping the world a place that needs people in InfoSec, like me.. :mind_blown:

You know the saying about idiot proofing…it’s impossible. They keep inventing better idiots

 

[crcole]

My comment is:

Why on earth would you put your address in your post?!?

On the other hand... thanks for keeping the world a place that needs people in InfoSec, like me.. :mind_blown:

 

[crcole]

This is a tough crowd.

A random address at the end of the post becomes center of attention as if that was the important part. How about just assuming the simplest possible explanation, which in this case is a cut and paste error.

Comparing my location and the address at the bottom of the post would have been a clue that the two are unrelated.

 

[crcole]

25k for this year includes EDVs so the assumption now that 15000 R1S will ship and then continue to ramp and close out next year at the 10k a month run rate as they go into 2024.

I didn't realize that 25,000 includes EDVs. This delays things by about a quarter.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

This is a tough crowd.

A random address at the end of the post and immediately everyone jumps on that as if that was the important part of the post. How about next time instead of dreaming up conspiracy theories just assume the simplest possible explanation,. which in this case was a cut and past error.

The simplest possible explanation was that you posted your address, for reasons unknown.

What conspiracy theory was mentioned by the way? I just pointed out it's a bad idea to give away that type of personal information randomly on the internet.

But you're right, instead of doing the right thing and pointing out something someone shouldn't be doing, I should just keep my fingers still and let them get taken advantage of :eyeroll:

 

[SeaGeo]

This is a tough crowd.

A random address at the end of the post and immediately everyone jumps on that as if that was the important part of the post. How about next time instead of dreaming up conspiracy theories just assume the simplest possible explanation, which in this case is a cut and past error.

And comparing my profile address zip code (which we all submit) and the random zip code at the bottom of the post might have been a clue that the two are unrelated.

People are generally making at point that it may not be particularly wise to share an unnecessary amount of your personal information publicly online.

 

[crashmtb]

my profile address zip code (which we all submit)

err, no we don’t.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

I just... can't.

Carry on, good sir. Good luck to thee. The interwebz be a dark and scary place. Beware!

 

[crcole]

The simplest possible explanation was that you posted your address, for reasons unknown.

What conspiracy theory was mentioned by the way? I just pointed out it's a bad idea to give away that type of personal information randomly on the internet.

But you're right, instead of doing the right thing and pointing out something someone shouldn't be doing, I should just keep my fingers still and let them get taken advantage of :eyeroll:

Good point, thank you for pointing out the extraneous info.

 

[crcole]

People are generally making at point that it may not be particularly wise to share an unnecessary amount of your personal information publicly online.

OK, good point.

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