RIVIAN STOCK

[Keith_Been_Waiting]

My gut feeling is that we are now/soon to be at the lowest low and that it will begin a slow upward march toward infinity.

Similar feelings here, but what's your prediction of the lowest low?

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[LeoH]

Similar feelings here, but what's your prediction of the lowest low?

I own Rivian and AMD stocks, but I am by no means as stock advisor, but a gut feeling is that it will teeter in the 30's until more deliveries happen and next Quarter results come out. Right now there is almost 0 confidence so it will be low for a while.

 

[Craigins]

If it drops below a little below 30, market cap will be approaching asset value. Would make things interesting.

 

[LeoH]

If it drops below a little below 30, market cap will be approaching asset value. Would make things interesting.

Can you elaborate? I have no clue what that means, is it like bad interesting or just plain interesting? ( I know it can't be good interesting! )

 

[fotoflux]

If it drops below a little below 30, market cap will be approaching asset value. Would make things interesting.

I can't imagine that happening. This is a new company that is just scaling operations, the upside potential is worth a lot more than their cash on hand and fixed assets. If the company is valued that low, that would be a sign that shareholders do not think that the business is viable and the value is only in the assets. Right now they have 2 years of demand for $70-$100k vehicles. They haven't even introduced lower end and smaller vehicles. Additionally, let's say the consumer side flops. They are definitely first to market with an EDV. It's a completely untapped market with little competition and the upside there is huge.

 

[Keith_Been_Waiting]

If it drops below a little below 30, market cap will be approaching asset value. Would make things interesting.

Haha.. yes that would certainly make things very interesting, not just for us pre-order holders, but for the likes of Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JP, Barclays etc etc !!!

 

[ironpig]

I don't think we've necessarily hit the lowest it can go, but I'm not sure what else can happen that will drive it lower before the next earnings call. Most analysts have have dropped their projections for the stock to around $100 but I saw one that put it at $60. most were still BUY ratings though.

If I didn't already have the amount of stock that I feel comfortable owning (losing) I would be a buyer between $35-40. That seems like a good entry point.

 

[Keith_Been_Waiting]

I can't imagine that happening. This is a new company that is just scaling operations, the upside potential is worth a lot more than their cash on hand and fixed assets.

Great point of view. Let's hope the investor sentiment is not too emotional.
Today's world news and heaping inflation is not helping.

 

[Craigins]

Can you elaborate? I have no clue what that means, is it like bad interesting or just plain interesting? ( I know it can't be good interesting! )

Foto filled it in a little more. Market cap usually factors in some potential for the company. If the stock drops low enough driving the market cap below cash and physical assets, that would mean investors have 0 faith in the companies future essentially.

Completely hypothetical, if the market cap dropped to $10B, and an organization comes in and buys all the stock, they could liquidate and make $12B profit. I don't see that happening in reality though.

 

[docpowell]

I don't think we've necessarily hit the lowest it can go, but I'm not sure what else can happen that will drive it lower before the next earnings call. Most analysts have have dropped their projections for the stock to around $100 but I saw one that put it at $60. most were still BUY ratings though.

If I didn't already have the amount of stock that I feel comfortable owning (losing) I would be a buyer between $35-40. That seems like a good entry point.

Its at $38.21 right now.

 

[LoneStar]

Grabbed 160 shares @ 38.

 

[Eticket99]

I thought the $30's at IPO would be a great investment... but after the bad sentiment, lawsuit, production is even worse than I imagined it would be.... not so sure. There's still the lockup expiration in May looming as well... and the investor call avoidance to answer pretty basic questions from the paying crowd speaks volumes to the chaos they're in and a bit of a spiral atm.

What deadline or guidance have they really met? They can't even get a delivery estimator on their website operational in the timelines they provide.... they say 25k vehicles this year... but what they're not saying is that will be substantially fewer R1Ts and even less R1Ss. I definitely feel profitability is better on highly optioned trucks and SUVs than EDVs, but just my opinion no facts on that one, but they have more parts that could potentially be back ordered/delayed. I say they miss their lowered target... again and that would spell even more doom/gloom here.

They had the advantage of being first to market, but if they can't produce trucks/SUVs and others can, they're going to find patience is going to run out for a lot of people (including myself).

 

[Eticket99]

I don't think we've necessarily hit the lowest it can go, but I'm not sure what else can happen that will drive it lower before the next earnings call. Most analysts have have dropped their projections for the stock to around $100 but I saw one that put it at $60. most were still BUY ratings though.

If I didn't already have the amount of stock that I feel comfortable owning (losing) I would be a buyer between $35-40. That seems like a good entry point.

Lockup expiring on May 8th could see a decent purge of early investors cashing out, even in the $30's the'y're making money.

 

[LoneStar]

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/rivian-s-q4-wasn-t-pretty-here-s-how-to-play-it-15938525

 

[cheffie]

IMO Rivian stock will stabilize around its current price for a while - but long term I believe in the company. The most important factor for me is that the product is just too damn good. All of the other issues (production rate, supply chain, etc) will eventually sort themselves out. At the end of the day, Rivian is producing two of the most desirable products I have ever seen.

We should remember that we kind of live in a bubble here (ie. people that are on a Rivian Forum) - the vast majority of people have no idea what Rivian is.

As more and more trucks/SUVs get out there, awareness of the overall brand and quality of the vehicles will grow fast. I'll be holding onto my shares and buying more at these prices periodically while I wait for the tipping point to arrive.

This is going to take time for sure. Even Tesla shares didn't really go nuts until 2020 - three years after the release of the model 3.


Disclaimer - Not an expert, might not know what I'm talking about!

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