Speculation - R1T cost after R2 launch…

[CampfireWisdom]

I’m about four months away from pulling the trigger on a new R1T. That being said, there are several key events in the very near future that may or may not affect the buying decision.

1. R2 pricing release/sales
2. R2 launch
3. 2027 R1 changes

I’m thinking I will wait to see what 2027 holds as I’m not super price sensitive. However, that 0% on 2026 DP is pretty juicy.

Any insight from those with experience or economics knowledge.

Please advise. Thanks in advance.

Greg

Sponsored

 

[VSG]

Not sure I see any connection between R1T prices and R2 prices. They don't even target the same demographic.

 

[CampfireWisdom]

Not sure I see any connection between R1T prices and R2 prices. They don't even target the same demographic.

True. Now, I’m no economist, but adding a lower cost alternative (initial R2s will cost more) will put pressure on R1 inventory. If the R1 family stops selling, Rivian will likely incentivize sales prior to 2027 models. If Rivian planned appropriately relative to inventory levels, then there may be very little movement. I’m likely overthinking this, but there has got to be some type of effect that a lower cost alternative will have on the flagship models, be that R1T or R1S… right?

 

[mikehmb]

They haven't really telegraphed what may come in the '27 R1 vehicles, but it's safe to assume lidar is on the agenda at some point - just not sure if it's '27 or beyond. Keep in mind they are only 2 model years into the Gen2.

For me, it would depend entirely on usage. We're interested in the R2 as a replacement for the GV60 in a couple of years, but definitely not as an R1T replacement (because Truck).

If you don't need 3 rows, plan to go SUV, and are willing to roll the dice on first article quality, then the R2 might be your jam.

I will say that the R1 is the best vehicle on the planet right now, though of course I'm biased having had 3 of these damned things. A 0% offer would be great, absolutely worth looking into.

 

[savethemanual]

True. Now, I’m no economist, but adding a lower cost alternative (initial R2s will cost more) will put pressure on R1 inventory. If the R1 family stops selling, Rivian will likely incentivize sales prior to 2027 models. If Rivian planned appropriately relative to inventory levels, then there may be very little movement. I’m likely overthinking this, but there has got to be some type of effect that a lower cost alternative will have on the flagship models, be that R1T or R1S… right?

Yeah, you’re overthinking it for sure!

You gotta jump in at some point, the grass is always going to be greener. You’ll know when it feels good to do so, cheers!

 

[mikehmb]

True. Now, I’m no economist, but adding a lower cost alternative (initial R2s will cost more) will put pressure on R1 inventory. If the R1 family stops selling, Rivian will likely incentivize sales prior to 2027 models. If Rivian planned appropriately relative to inventory levels, then there may be very little movement. I’m likely overthinking this, but there has got to be some type of effect that a lower cost alternative will have on the flagship models, be that R1T or R1S… right?

Ok now I see where you're coming from.

I'm not going to argue the logic of supply/demand, but I don't think it's a good bet to assume R1s will suddenly cease to be interesting and therefore drop in demand and therefore price in the future. They'll set build volume to demand and maintain pricing. They certainly don't want to go back to losing $$ on each sale.

The R2 is meant to be the volume play, and you're going to see significantly less feature content for the price. The R1 will be the halo vehicle as long as they choose to continue to sell it.

 

[VSG]

Keep in mind they are only 2 model years into the Gen2.

And Gen 2 came out 2 model years after Gen 1. So we're due ...

I don't see any scenario where Rivian puts Lidar and Gen 3 chips on the R2 and leaves the R1 as a less capable vehicle for twice the price.

IMO Gen 3 R1 will come at the same time (or even before) you see Lidar on the R2.

 

[mikehmb]

And Gen 2 came out 2 model years after Gen 1. So we're due ...

I don't see any scenario where Rivian puts Lidar and Gen 3 chips on the R2 and leaves the R1 as a less capable vehicle for twice the price.

IMO Gen 3 R1 will come at the same time (or even before) you see Lidar on the R2.

The Gen 1 had significant quality issues, and needed a platform refresh asap.

Gen 2 could see a mid-cycle introduction of lidar, or it could be gen 3 and accelerated. But I'm skeptical of a full generational refresh again so soon.

 

[VSG]

adding a lower cost alternative (initial R2s will cost more) will put pressure on R1 inventory

If R2 is great (and I expect it will be), then that creates MORE demand for the R1S - people who never ever considered buying an $80k vehicle (or never ever heard of Rivian ...) will try out the R2 and realize they want something that can carry 7 passengers instead of 5, then they will say hey maybe we should think about the R1S after all?

You don't often hear about cases where people decide they need a SMALLER vehicle - they want bigger, better, more luxurious - sticking with the same model or even going to a lower model feels like failure.

Likewise, when upgrading a few years down the road, people often want something bigger. So R2 is a way to get customers for life who will eventually move up to an R1.

 

[TexasBob]

I assume the giant tech upgrade will also get pushed into R1, and it is huge. It is Lidar plus the RAP1 chipset which is vastly more capable plus updated radar, a specialized onboard ai chip for in vehicle processing, upgraded infotainment processor, and upgraded cameras (just to mention a few highlights from autonomy day). Personally, I would not even consider buying any new Rivian until this arrives. If I did not care about those things I would buy a used Gen 2 because the new vehicles are already so out of date (I have a one year old and a two year but not complaining, just being honest that they are seriously old tech now).

 

[VSG]

The Gen 1 had significant quality issues, and needed a platform refresh asap.

I don't agree with that characterization at all.
Gen 1 was overbuilt because Rivian made compromises in order to get the vehicle launched.
Gen 1 sold at a loss, in order to carve out some market share.
Gen 2 was almost entirely for manufacturing cost savings, not "quality" issues. The cost reduction was something like 35%, with very few customer-facing improvements. Even the improved cameras were because sticking with the older cameras would have cost more.
Gen 2 was all about manufacturing cost and efficiency.

The R2 is also all about manufacturing cost and efficiency - in order to sell a similar vehicle at half the cost there had to be major changes to the R2. A lot of that was in the supply line, but certainly there are huge manufacturing changes. These are the things I would expect to see in a Gen 3 R1, for the purpose of increasing margin and at the same time decreasing price so the R1 would be more accessible to the majority of car buyers.

 

[CampfireWisdom]

I assume the giant tech upgrade will also get pushed into R1, and it is huge. It is Lidar plus the RAP1 chipset which is vastly more capable plus updated radar, a specialized onboard ai chip for in vehicle processing, upgraded infotainment processor, and upgraded cameras (just to mention a few highlights from autonomy day). Personally, I would not even consider buying any new Rivian until this arrives. If I did not care about those things I would buy a used Gen 2 because the new vehicles are already so out of date (I have a one year old and a two year but not complaining, just being honest that they are seriously old tech now).

From a marketing perspective, your assumption seems correct. Launch the R2, bring Gen 3 tech to R1, introduce the R2 with Gen 3 tech thereby aligning with the flagship model. Methinks I will be patient.

 

[hammick]

I’m about four months away from pulling the trigger on a new R1T. That being said, there are several key events in the very near future that may or may not affect the buying decision.

1. R2 pricing release/sales
2. R2 launch
3. 2027 R1 changes

I’m thinking I will wait to see what 2027 holds as I’m not super price sensitive. However, that 0% on 2026 DP is pretty juicy.

Any insight from those with experience or economics knowledge.

Please advise. Thanks in advance.

Greg

If you want a Rivian the 0% is a no brainer. We'd be a two R1 family if they had that 9 months ago. Park the savings at one of the online banks that has real interest payments. Compare the cost of DP vs Tri. If you wait until 2027 you will then be thinking about the '28 '29 rumors. We could be in a depression in '29. Vis le moment présent I say.

 

[CampfireWisdom]

If you want a Rivian the 0% is a no brainer. Compare the cost of DP vs Tri. If you wait until 2027 you will then be thinking about the '28 '29 rumors. We could be in a depression in '29. Vis le moment présent

I said I was overthinking it. 8P

I will wait to see what 2027 has to offer since it’s right around the corner. I’m a first-year teacher so I’m drowning in lesson plans anyways… I won’t be able to adventure until at least June. If it’s worth it, I’ll go 2027. If the difference is negligible, try to score a used/discounted 2026. You guys rock!

 

[Time2Roll]

2027? When do you expect the 2027 models to come out?
I thought the 2026 was rushed to get the Quad relaunched and the NACS port on all models asap.

Sponsored