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Time to delivery.... if I order now.

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With all that said, if you live in a large auto market (I do, in So Cal) where putting the vehicles into people's hand does the best marketing, I fully expect Rivian to build more R1S than preorder ratio to truck (Preorder Truck vs SUV = 5:1).
I mean, I literally live 5 minutes away from one of the few actually operating service centers and Iā€™m not holding out hope that living in a primary market will push my deliver date up.
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EVTrucking

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I've seen several posts that say they have cancelled their reservations already. Its just he beginning.

As for the split between the truck and SUV, I thought I read that or heard that on one of the financial feeds immediately following the IPO days.

Regardless of the mix, using your numbers, if Rivian can make 30K ('22) and 70~80K in ('23), that totals over 100K and they definitely do not have that many backlog. Rivian Investor Relations' website currently shows 55K backlog as of end of October. So depending on the cancellation rate, may not be late 22 but most likely the first quarter of 23 (which is what I originally said by late 22 or early 23).

I believe Rivian is setting the expectations low and will over deliver. Its been said that by many analysts and perhaps that's why the coverage began so bullish today....
IMHO I think 30k in 22 snd 70-80k in 23 is significantly overly optimistic. There is currently no evidence that Rivian has entered the production ramp phase yet. They have been at it 3+ months with not much to show for it.

I pre ordered 3/21/2021 and donā€™t expect my R1T until late 23 to early 24. I base this on current Rivian performance, world wide supply chain issues, 38 years of complex HVM experience and that Rivian is a start up.

Rivian will lose some pre orders for R1T/S but I donā€™t anticipate it to be significant.

I hope that my R1T is ready sooner and wish I had pre ordered earlier.

I have a reservation for a Lightning but was also late to party 6/6/21. I am expecting delivery about the same time as my R1T.
 

Dbeglor

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I've seen several posts that say they have cancelled their reservations already. Its just he beginning.

As for the split between the truck and SUV, I thought I read that or heard that on one of the financial feeds immediately following the IPO days.

Regardless of the mix, using your numbers, if Rivian can make 30K ('22) and 70~80K in ('23), that totals over 100K and they definitely do not have that many backlog. Rivian Investor Relations' website currently shows 55K backlog as of end of October. So depending on the cancellation rate, may not be late 22 but most likely the first quarter of 23 (which is what I originally said by late 22 or early 23).

I believe Rivian is setting the expectations low and will over deliver. Its been said that by many analysts and perhaps that's why the coverage began so bullish today....
70-80 in 2023 was for everything, so including 20k+ vans.

Given the question is if you order now, the variable no one knows is the total order log as of now. Presumably we'll find out on the 16th. I'm guessing it's up to around 80-85k.
 

mkg3

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70-80 in 2023 was for everything, so including 20k+ vans.

Given the question is if you order now, the variable no one knows is the total order log as of now. Presumably we'll find out on the 16th. I'm guessing it's up to around 80-85k.
Thanks to @Craigins in another post, he quoted from S1 filing for the IPO:

""The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively.". From the S-1 A3."

So if the backlog for R1 platform is around the installed capacity, then there is every reason to believe it will be cleared up within 18 months. That's giving them 6 additional months to ramp up to full capacity. This takes us to mid 2023. When cancellations and faster ramp up are considered, again, it takes us to late 2022 to early 2023...

Not sure why so many are VERY negative on the delivery dates with some predicting late 2024 to fill non LE R1 platforms. From cashflow perspective, Rivian cannot wait that long to fill the orders; therefore, the vehicles will be pushed out both the R1 and RCVs.
 

Redline

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E-mails going out to the rest of us will sure help these questions. CS told me yesterday they should come out at any time and she also said that Adventure R1S' would ship starting in May.
 

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Dbeglor

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Thanks to @Craigins in another post, he quoted from S1 filing for the IPO:

""The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively.". From the S-1 A3."

So if the backlog for R1 platform is around the installed capacity, then there is every reason to believe it will be cleared up within 18 months. That's giving them 6 additional months to ramp up to full capacity. This takes us to mid 2023. When cancellations and faster ramp up are considered, again, it takes us to late 2022 to early 2023...

Not sure why so many are VERY negative on the delivery dates with some predicting late 2024 to fill non LE R1 platforms. From cashflow perspective, Rivian cannot wait that long to fill the orders; therefore, the vehicles will be pushed out both the R1 and RCVs.
You're not factoring in the time to ramp up production. Below is an approximation of what I'd expect if everything goes according to "plan" without disruption. This would coincide with delivering on the LE by September, plus starting the non-LE sometime in late Q2 probably. This has them at full capacity on an annualized basis in Q4 2023. They are planning to expand Normal by 50k annual capacity, but not sure where that gets allocated and when.

Rivian R1T R1S Time to delivery.... if I order now. 1638904561986

Rivian R1T R1S Time to delivery.... if I order now. 1638904571822
 

ironpig

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Thanks to @Craigins in another post, he quoted from S1 filing for the IPO:

""The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively.". From the S-1 A3."

So if the backlog for R1 platform is around the installed capacity, then there is every reason to believe it will be cleared up within 18 months. That's giving them 6 additional months to ramp up to full capacity. This takes us to mid 2023. When cancellations and faster ramp up are considered, again, it takes us to late 2022 to early 2023...

Not sure why so many are VERY negative on the delivery dates with some predicting late 2024 to fill non LE R1 platforms. From cashflow perspective, Rivian cannot wait that long to fill the orders; therefore, the vehicles will be pushed out both the R1 and RCVs.
Factory capacity is irrelevant in the first few years. They build the factories that can handle larger capacity, but that doesn't mean they can actually ramp up to full estimated capacity as quickly as you keep saying.

Cashflow is also irrelevant. They are not expecting to be profitable for years. They have plenty of cash for manufacturing now.

Based on everything we know currently, it looks like 12-18k R1s next year at best and maybe 30k in 2023 if all goes well. And it won't.
 

BradSomrak

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So if the backlog for R1 platform is around the installed capacity, then there is every reason to believe it will be cleared up within 18 months. That's giving them 6 additional months to ramp up to full capacity. This takes us to mid 2023. When cancellations and faster ramp up are considered, again, it takes us to late 2022 to early 2023...

Not sure why so many are VERY negative on the delivery dates with some predicting late 2024 to fill non LE R1 platforms.

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Respectfully, I think expecting Rivian to go from dead standstill to full capacity in six months isā€¦ā€¦.overly optimistic, letā€™s say. They are not going to be operating at max capacity of 60-65k vehicles annually by June 2022, IMO.

So if the rest of your numbers are correct, and it takes slightly longer to get ramped up to max capacity, youā€™re looking late ā€™23/early ā€˜24 for recent preorders.

We can circle back in June and see how things are going. My vote is they will not be humming along at a 60k vehicle per year pace.
 

Craigins

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It all depends if you believe the S-1 or not.

If you do, read it.

If you don't, then continue making up numbers with little relevance.

The S-1 states full production(factory capacity) ramp up at the end of 2023.

My opinion, In terms of ramp up, do not assume linear like in the graph posted. Most of the ramp up is going to be hiring new workers and training them to enable additional shifts. I expect more of an S curve on the rampup, where in 2023 it gets close to max, then takes a bit to close the gap (refining the last few steps that need fixing).
 

mkg3

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You're not factoring in the time to ramp up production. Below is an approximation of what I'd expect if everything goes according to "plan" without disruption. This would coincide with delivering on the LE by September, plus starting the non-LE sometime in late Q2 probably. This has them at full capacity on an annualized basis in Q4 2023. They are planning to expand Normal by 50k annual capacity, but not sure where that gets allocated and when.

1638904561986.png

1638904571822.png
Your plot assumes linear ramp up. Most learning curves are not linear as you've shown.

Not arguing with you. Rather, just point out that after the initial slow start, learning curve flattens out and production volume increases much more rapidly.

Lets just see what happens. Today, we agree to disagree :)
 

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mkg3

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...Cashflow is also irrelevant. They are not expecting to be profitable for years. They have plenty of cash for manufacturing now....
Cash flow has very little to do with being profitable. It has everything to do with business viability. Regardless of amount of cash Rivian has today, they will burn through quickly, if there is no cash flow to replenish the reserve.
 

Dbeglor

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Your plot assumes linear ramp up. Most learning curves are not linear as you've shown.

Not arguing with you. Rather, just point out that after the initial slow start, learning curve flattens out and production volume increases much more rapidly.

Lets just see what happens. Today, we agree to disagree :)
It's not linear, it's increasing production # at an increasing rate through 2022 into 2023. If you made it less linear (more exponential), it would push even more deliveries out further, not move them up. The Q4 2023 production number is fixed, so making it more exponential just flattens out 2022.
 

mkg3

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Respectfully, I think expecting Rivian to go from dead standstill to full capacity in six months isā€¦ā€¦.overly optimistic, letā€™s say. They are not going to be operating at max capacity of 60-65k vehicles annually by June 2022, IMO.
Sorry to have confused you. I should have been bit more clearer.

Never said they would go from zero to full in 6 months. What I implied was that they had a 6 months slack to reach full production rate over the next 1.5 years.

So by my math, they would reach full capacity by mid 2023, not June 2022. During that time, they would have filled roughly all the backlog that we know about today ~55k to 60K vehicles.
 

BradSomrak

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Sorry to have confused you. I should have been bit more clearer.

Never said they would go from zero to full in 6 months. What I implied was that they had a 6 months slack to reach full production rate over the next 1.5 years.

So by my math, they would reach full capacity by mid 2023, not June 2022. During that time, they would have filled roughly all the backlog that we know about today ~55k to 60K vehicles.
That makes so much more sense. Ha. I mostly agree with those numbers.
 

Dbeglor

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Cash flow has very little to do with being profitable. It has everything to do with business viability. Regardless of amount of cash Rivian has today, they will burn through quickly, if there is no cash flow to replenish the reserve.
They will have to raise capital, probably in 2024. Current cash on hand should last them through 2023 and into 2024. They are probably at least five years away from being profitable before cap ex and a decade+ away from self-funding the business.
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