What Else Are You Considering?

[DucRider]

If all 375 million cars in the US were converted to EV’s, and assuming each one consumes an average of 10kWh per day* all sourced from the grid, it would increase the daily US electricity grid consumption by ~25%. Yeah, a decent chunk of that would be at night, but enough would be during the day to significantly stress our already stressed electric grid. I wouldn’t consider this a “myth”.*10kWh/day consumption based on 15k miles per year or ~40 miles per day usage and 4kWh/mi consumption rate.

Here’s the math. Feel free to check my work and correct any miscalculations.

275M cars x 10kWh per day consumption = 2.75 billion kWh/day total consumption for 275M EVs.

Current US electricity consumption is 4,222.5 tWh (4.2 trillion KWh) per year, or 11.6 billion kWh per day. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States
“In 2018 the total US consumption of electricity was 4,222.5 terawatt-hours (TWh)”

2.75B kWh increase to the 11.6B kWh current consumption is ~25% increase. This would not be a trivial impact.

And what make you think that the grid is maxed out and power generation can't be gradually increased to meet demand. Plus dispersed solar is likely (almost certainly) going to increase and offset the need for the grid to supply all of the additional power

In no scenario do all ICE vehicles disappear overnight and the grid need to suddenly supply 25% more power.

I have seen nothing from any utility to indicate they will not be able to supply the needed power. Have you? Do you have a link?

Sponsored

 

[DucRider]

The problem with this IMO is that it includes an assumption that people are willing to use an expensive battery in a comparatively expensive vehicle to provide free energy storage for the power companies. Unless it’s demonstrated that this does not impact battery health or lifespan, I doubt most people are going to be willing to do this.

No, all EV owners participating is not a requirement for this to work. EV owners will be financially compensated for doing so (owners will not be providing it for free), but utilities are building buffering on their own (second life for batteries will play a part). The reality is using an extra 10-15 miles of range from your battery in the evening will go a long way to shaving that peak demand (when taken cumulatively from thousands of owners). That will not significantly stress your expensive EV battery.

 

[Gshenderson]

And what make you think that the grid is maxed out and power generation can't be gradually increased to meet demand. Plus dispersed solar is likely (almost certainly) going to increase and offset the need for the grid to supply all of the additional power

In no scenario do all ICE vehicles disappear overnight and the grid need to suddenly supply 25% more power.

I have seen nothing from any utility to indicate they will not be able to supply the needed power. Have you? Do you have a link?

I didn’t say it would happen overnight. The point is that the grid needs serious upgrades to handle the end state demand. It can barely handle the current state. I fully expect those upgrades to happen over time, and hopefully they dovetail with the increased demand vs. lagging it.

 

[SANZC02]

And what make you think that the grid is maxed out and power generation can't be gradually increased to meet demand. Plus dispersed solar is likely (almost certainly) going to increase and offset the need for the grid to supply all of the additional power

In no scenario do all ICE vehicles disappear overnight and the grid need to suddenly supply 25% more power.

I have seen nothing from any utility to indicate they will not be able to supply the needed power. Have you? Do you have a link?

I think we are all on the same page here. We do not think it will be overnight to need or add the additional load requirements. They will both take time and with a proper plan it can be harmonious.

I am not calling it out as doom and gloom, just tempering my guesstimate for how long it will take to reach these points.

 

[SeaGeo]

No, all EV owners participating is not a requirement for this to work. EV owners will be financially compensated for doing so (owners will not be providing it for free), but utilities are building buffering on their own (second life for batteries will play a part). The reality is using an extra 10-15 miles of range from your battery in the evening will go a long way to shaving that peak demand (when taken cumulatively from thousands of owners). That will not significantly stress your expensive EV battery.

If we play this right, I think people are really underestimating the impact of second life batteries for relatively inexpensive storage.

 

[EV-X Oregon]

I would consider leasing... not buying a

1. Ford F-150 hybrid
2. GMC Denali 3.0 Diesel
3. 2021 Jeep Grand Cherokee L Overland
4. Volvo XC 90

 

[timesinks]

Here's a solid video discussing the hypothetical that all cars switch to electric, the impact that would have on the overall grid, and puts that into the context of how much the grid already expands each year:

In summary, yeah, it's a change, but it's not coming out of nowhere. And the 30% expansion to cover EVs is a blip compared to the 5x expansion over the prior 40 years to account for expansion into the suburbs, air conditioning, and the information economy. Smart tech that can charge cars off peak will ease the pain further. The concern isn't completely unfounded, but it's totally blown out of proportion when used as a talking point by anti-EV naysayers.

 

[LeoH]

Well I know there are a lot of VALID points about the grid, but there is a black horse in this whole EVolution ( see what I did! ) and that is residential solar power. That will offset quite a bit of the energy delivered through the grid.

Look at it this way, in the wake of ICE vehicles, there was a bit of stress on the oil refineries and oil wells for a while, until they got caught up. Same with residential solar energy, if they get efficient enough, you might be able to install fewer panels, at a lower cost and not depend on the grid.

 

[Trandall]

The question still stands, when do Forumites here think we will we cross the threshold of 50% of all private vehicle miles being provided by EVs? Ten years? Twenty years? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.

If were talking strictly commuting of people my guess is by the end of 2030 we will see 51% EV miles traveled. If we are including trucking I would add 10 years to get to the same figure. It's a very tricky figure to nail down fuel prices, technology, government regulation could significantly decrease my WAG or slightly increase it but that's my best guess as of today.

 

[TessP100D]

I have a separate thread on what type of driver is looking at Rivian and what needs it will meet here. Now I would like to hear what else you might be considering.

In addition to the R1S, I am currently still considering a Tesla Model X. I have contemplated a few others, but it seems that nothing offers the performance and range that Tesla and, eventually Rivian, offer.

If you select "Other" in the poll, please post comments. Also, feel free to let me know if I should list more options in the poll (I know there are numerous EV startups out there, but I only listed a few here).

Tesla CT.

 

[rraj2k81]

1. Polestar 2 with the Performance Pack - Keep going back and fourth on pulling the trigger on this. The most fun to drive EV I have test driven. Plus the crazy low finance rates.

2. Model S - This was my original choice before the refresh. But with the refresh, need to test drive one (whenever it makes it into the market), because not a fan of the york steering and the software drive selector, plus the price increase.

3. Ford Mustang Mach-E GT - Waiting to test drive one before making a final call. But in Canada this is not expected until Q1 2022, so might just wait for the R1S.

4. Audi eTron Sportback - The most comfortable and luxurious EV, but cannot justify the price when I consider the range and performance. It was easy to knock this one off.

Between all of this and the R1S, the R1S for me looks to be the better choice, at least on paper, i.e. range/performance/utility/charging.

So I am hoping Rivian knocks the launch out of the park with little issues as possible.

 

[P.S.Mangelsdorf]

My "other" is the upcoming electric Silverado (and its yet to be named GMC sibling), or doing a truck conversion after I finish my 1940 Chevy coupe.

 

[wilderaz]

Keep my existing van for road trips and large cargo and get a Tesla Model S or Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo as a daily driver.

 

[Canthoney]

I really like the Hyundai Ioniq 5, but don’t know if it comes out this year, but that would be my second choice after the R1T. The Mustang Mach-E looks very promising too, and I like the styling of the Polestar 2.

 

[SeaGeo]

I really like the Hyundai Ioniq 5, but don’t know if it comes out this year, but that would be my second choice after the R1T. The Mustang Mach-E looks very promising too, and I like the styling of the Polestar 2.

Ioniq should be out basically any time now. It's currently out in South Korea I believe. Then Europe, and then we will get it.

Sponsored