Why is RIVN Relatively Stable

[Christopher1000]

What are your thoughts on why the Rivian stock has been relatively stable these days? “Relatively” because there is always volatility, but it’s not sinking like it could in this unstable economy. I’m wondering if it’s because the R2/R3 production seems to be going on schedule for next year?

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[mkg3]

Mostly because its status quo - nothing good or bad.

Average volume is down to 30m/day or thereabouts for the last 90 days and the total float is about 1.12b. Less than 3% traded daily.

Many investors have lost interest and patience with Rivian currently.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Could be the fact it's still an American company, manufacturing wholly in America, which may be helping it weather some of the uncertainty other companies are facing?

Still doesn't mean it's unscathed by the import tariffs on some of the microprocessors etc they need to assemble the car, but just a potential reason.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

I would say a combination of all three of the above....with most being on the "lost interest and patience" idea by @mkg3. R2 really appears to be the final frontier for Rivian.

 

[Christopher1000]

Interesting. But as a very early adapter (serial in 3000 range) I'm very impressed not only with the quality of my truck after three years of ownership but more important the continued time, energy, and focus on continued innovation with updates and new vehicles. Many of the other startups haven't done this and/or have gone out of business. Even Ford isn't continuing innovation with their Lightenings as far as I can tell. I don't want to seem like I'm drinking the koolaid but Rivian seems to be on the right path here.

 

[lefkonj]

They are addressing quality issues, ramping up for R2/R3 and seem to have a good plan forward.

 

[NY_Rob]

I would say a combination of all three of the above....with most being on the "lost interest and patience" idea by @mkg3. R2 really appears to be the final frontier for Rivian.

I was going to reply, "because it's so low already nobody cares any longer", but you covered that above

 

[mkg3]

...focus on continued innovation with updates and new vehicles. Many of the other startups haven't done this and/or have gone out of business. Even Ford isn't continuing innovation with their Lightenings... I don't want to seem like I'm drinking the koolaid but Rivian seems to be on the right path here.

Rivian needed to do somethings since there is a huge gap between the R2 announcement and the releases. R1 Gen 2 was cost control and quality improvement (to lower warrantee costs).

Ford has invested in profitable vehicles and reprioritizing their strategy. Other EV companies, besides than Lucid have a very short runway and most haven't made it.

I don't know if you are drinking koolaid or not. You believe what you want to believe and same goes for everyone, including myself so it's a question of assumptions and understanding the business.

As a side note, Q1 earnings report and the call is next Tuesday so I suspect the volume and the interest will increase around then - in either direction.

 

[VSG]

Many investors speculators and short sellers have lost interest and patience with Rivian

FTFY.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Rivian has nothing to drive growth right now. It’s why the stock reliably trades $11-14 just based on non-Rivian specific news.

Investors need more details on the R2 to drive stock growth. But the word is that there is little confidence in Rivian Ops to build a quality vehicle for the masses at the right price point.

If there will be a real move, it will be in Q3-4 2025. Rivian does report earnings soon, though, so could be short term churn.

 

[andrewgrhogg]

Stock prices today have very little relevance to the actual company behind the stock, See "Tesla". If you just look at Revenues, and assume that when Rivian reaches Teslas revenues it will be similarly profitable, then Rivians stock price of about $13 multiplies out to a price of $757!! Tesla (only profitable if you count credits sold to other manufacturers) sits at $280 today, so by that metric Rivian at $13 is way overvalued....

To put that $13 in perspective, which is a market cap of $15 billion (while losing money at $750 million a quarter run rate), two other companies with the same market cap are Dominos pizza and Snap-on Tools. The former has Net Income of $1 billion and the latter is at $500 million. hell GMs market cap is only $45 billion, so a $13 stock price is saying Rivian is "worth" 1/3 of GM!! note that GM sold 2.7 million vehicles in 2024 while Rivian sold around 51,000 - or less than 1/50th!! So 1/3 the market cap at 1/50th the vehicles sold...yah - $13 is way way overvalued...but trust me, once they start shipping the R2 the price will go up like crazy based on batshit crazy investors driving it up.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Interesting. But as a very early adapter (serial in 3000 range) I'm very impressed not only with the quality of my truck after three years of ownership but more important the continued time, energy, and focus on continued innovation with updates and new vehicles. Many of the other startups haven't done this and/or have gone out of business. Even Ford isn't continuing innovation with their Lightenings as far as I can tell. I don't want to seem like I'm drinking the koolaid but Rivian seems to be on the right path here.

Agreed, they just need to continue to work toward profitability while not sacrificing the quality of the product along the way. They have a unique opportunity to be a reliable, well equipped EV, they just need to focus.

 

[Christopher1000]

Stock prices today have very little relevance to the actual company behind the stock, See "Tesla". If you just look at Revenues, and assume that when Rivian reaches Teslas revenues it will be similarly profitable, then Rivians stock price of about $13 multiplies out to a price of $757!! Tesla (only profitable if you count credits sold to other manufacturers) sits at $280 today, so by that metric Rivian at $13 is way overvalued....

To put that $13 in perspective, which is a market cap of $15 billion (while losing money at $750 million a quarter run rate), two other companies with the same market cap are Dominos pizza and Snap-on Tools. The former has Net Income of $1 billion and the latter is at $500 million. hell GMs market cap is only $45 billion, so a $13 stock price is saying Rivian is "worth" 1/3 of GM!! note that GM sold 2.7 million vehicles in 2024 while Rivian sold around 51,000 - or less than 1/50th!! So 1/3 the market cap at 1/50th the vehicles sold...yah - $13 is way way overvalued...but trust me, once they start shipping the R2 the price will go up like crazy based on batshit crazy investors driving it up.

It seems speculators/shorters have been putting downward pressure on this stock for some time now. Don't you think they will continue to try, and possibly succeed, to keep the price down even if R2 is successfully launched?

 

[mkg3]

Stock prices today have very little relevance to the actual company behind the stock, See "Tesla". If you just look at Revenues, and assume that when Rivian reaches Teslas revenues it will be similarly profitable, then Rivians stock price of about $13 multiplies out to a price of $757!! Tesla (only profitable if you count credits sold to other manufacturers) sits at $280 today, so by that metric Rivian at $13 is way overvalued....

To put that $13 in perspective, which is a market cap of $15 billion (while losing money at $750 million a quarter run rate), two other companies with the same market cap are Dominos pizza and Snap-on Tools. The former has Net Income of $1 billion and the latter is at $500 million. hell GMs market cap is only $45 billion, so a $13 stock price is saying Rivian is "worth" 1/3 of GM!! note that GM sold 2.7 million vehicles in 2024 while Rivian sold around 51,000 - or less than 1/50th!! So 1/3 the market cap at 1/50th the vehicles sold...yah - $13 is way way overvalued...but trust me, once they start shipping the R2 the price will go up like crazy based on batshit crazy investors driving it up.

Just to clarify, Tesla was profitable in 1Q 2025 due to environmental credit, just as Rivian was in 2024 Q4. The difference is that Tesla has been profitable for years now and has over $30B in cash and cash equivalents. Rivian has just enough to get to R2 production early next year.

Tesla qualified to be a part of S&P500 for having 4 consecutive quarters of positive earnings. Rivian has so far had one. We'll see where they are for 1Q2025 next week.

Valuation is what people are willing to pay for. At the daily volume average of 150m shares/day traded, clearly people are at least 5x more interested in getting involved with Tesla than Rivian, stock wise. People see more than an EV company for Tesla. Rivian is an EV company still. May change one day but today, it's an EV company and as such, it's valued as an auto company. There is very little relevance comparing Tesla and Rivian at this point.

As an owner of $TSLA and $RIVN, as well as Tesla and Rivian vehicles, I am all for a real catalyst from Rivian. R2 cannot come fast enough, just as Robotaxi for Tesla.

 

[andrewgrhogg]

FYI, Robo taxi is never coming, at least not in any way shape or form that musk is saying it will. The Robo taxis launching in Austin are a full con job and a total invalidation of Tesla‘s model for full self driving. It’s a gated environment with highly mapped roads Loaded into those particular vehicles. And if it ever rains in Austin hard enough, they’ll be no Robo taxi going anywhere. But as we can see, purchases of their stock don’t care about those facts as they continue to drive up the price based on as yet invalidated tech for self driving and robotics.

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