The New Reality - Dual Motor Compared to Lightning

[MXA121]

There is a lot of hysteria surrounding the first ~70k reservations, their pricing, and options, etc. One thing that has been glossed over by us reservation holders is this new Rivian pricing strategy and market positioning. I believe Rivian will excite shareholders with their announcement of lower tier models and options, paired with higher profitibility.

Attached is a chart comparing a few Rivian and Ford models that gives us an idea of where they are headed.
Q: Is the new R1T Dual Motor still a compelling sale vs the competition?
A: Yes - as you can see, customers that will be purchasing the new R1T dual motor are still getting a premium positioned product for the price.
I also included the Quad Motor pre March 1 pricing as reference.

What do you think, will Rivian's new pricing structure be a win in the long term? Is it still a good deal with 'only' 600 hp?

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[KeithPleas]

Interesting comparison - if those are the out-the-door prices. The reports of Ford markups were alarming for anything coming from a traditional dealer. And I saw another post saying that a dealer told a customer this week a new Lightning order was 4-5 years until delivery.

When everything shakes out then - yes - Rivian will have a compelling offering against those trucks but...dang...everything is moving both quickly...and slowly.

 

[AllInev]

There is a lot of hysteria surrounding the first ~70k reservations, their pricing, and options, etc. One thing that has been glossed over by us reservation holders is this new Rivian pricing strategy and market positioning. I believe Rivian will excite shareholders with their announcement of lower tier models and options, paired with higher profitibility.

Attached is a chart comparing a few Rivian and Ford models that gives us an idea of where they are headed.
Q: Is the new R1T Dual Motor still a compelling sale vs the competition?
A: Yes - as you can see, customers that will be purchasing the new R1T dual motor are still getting a premium positioned product for the price.
I also included the Quad Motor pre March 1 pricing as reference.

What do you think, will Rivian's new pricing structure be a win in the long term? Is it still a good deal with 'only' 600 hp?

Thanks for putting this together. I agree the new dual-motor options with the Rivian designed motors look compelling and should keep Rivian competitive. I think it was a great move that, unfortunately, was overshadowed by their pricing debacle.

 

[yizzung]

Thanks for putting this together.

MSRP seems to be meaningless. Would be interesting to add a row of actual, real-world pricing given the crazy dealer markups.

As for Rivian exciting shareholders, they will need to do more than magically create a new edition of truck by describing a dual motor version with a cheaper battery. If they aren't going to start shipping it for 1 or 2 or 3 more years, shareholders (like me) are going to yawn. It's vaporware.

 

[TXR1S]

This is a really interesting point. It seems that now the pricing is being held for existing orders, Rivian should try to get the dual motor spooled up way faster. 2024 is a LONG time from now. Lightning Gen 2 will be nearing reveal.

 

[Swilly]

Thanks for putting this together.

MSRP seems to be meaningless. Would be interesting to add a row of actual, real-world pricing given the crazy dealer markups.

As for Rivian exciting shareholders, they will need to do more than magically create a new edition of truck by describing a dual motor version with a cheaper battery. If they aren't going to start shipping it for 1 or 2 or 3 more years, shareholders (like me) are going to yawn. It's vaporware.

At this point, you are absolutely right about dual motor being vaporware. I had the same feeling and decided to ask for some details from customer service and they 1) do not have any specifics besides around 600hp and more efficient, and 2) that the assembly line is not tooled for the dual motor variant (I am assuming that is because the dual will be built in Georgia, so even 2024 might be wishful thinking). All they have done is announce a dual motor will be available in the distant future, same as they did with the original roll out of the quad motor S and T in 2018.

 

[godfodder0901]

At this point, you are absolutely right about dual motor being vaporware. I had the same feeling and decided to ask for some details from customer service and they 1) do not have any specifics besides around 600hp and more efficient, and 2) that the assembly line is not tooled for the dual motor variant (I am assuming that is because the dual will be built in Georgia, so even 2024 might be wishful thinking). All they have done is announce a dual motor will be available in the distant future, same as they did with the original roll out of the quad motor S and T in 2018.

In a recent interview, RJ said that they have a pilot line for the in-house motors running right now in Normal. As this seems to be a drop-in replacement for the quad-motor drive units, I suspect there would be minimal changes to their manufacturing process. The Georgia plant should be for the R2 line.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

At this point, you are absolutely right about dual motor being vaporware. I had the same feeling and decided to ask for some details from customer service and they 1) do not have any specifics besides around 600hp and more efficient, and 2) that the assembly line is not tooled for the dual motor variant (I am assuming that is because the dual will be built in Georgia, so even 2024 might be wishful thinking). All they have done is announce a dual motor will be available in the distant future, same as they did with the original roll out of the quad motor S and T in 2018.

I understand being skeptical of future products from a company that still hasn't fully launched their first generation but I'm pretty bullish on the dual motor R1 series.

What they didn't say publicly but is implied by the specs is that they are developing a 300/300 motor that will be designed and built in house and it will be the foundation of their future products (R2 and beyond). I expect that motor to be used in all of their future products, including 2nd gen R1 vehicles in either a single motor, dual, or quad motor set up. This also means they will be developing a differential of some sort to manage power distribution.

All of this is central to their long term strategy as a company. If they don't deliver on it, it's likely because they aren't going to make it.

 

[SeaGeo]

This is a really interesting point. It seems that now the pricing is being held for existing orders, Rivian should try to get the dual motor spooled up way faster.

The release schedule of them was one of the biggest problems for me as a consumer, and I'm still surprised RJ thought that it would be an adequate buffer to the cost increase.

If they had them available as a drop in this year, I probably would have considered it. If they had dropped the base price by say $1,500 and had the quad motor equal a $7500 upgrade, I would have jumped at the dual motor variant. Particularly if it's truly an 800v motor and facilitates faster charging.

In fact, I had seen the dual motor release first, and was excited about it. I ran over to the website to change our R1S Reservation to it in the hopes of saving a bit of $, since that would have been my wife's commuting car and our road trip vehicle.

Its going to be really interesting to see where the EV9 and XC90 replacement land on price. They will be tough competition for the R1S for most people.

 

[stimpy]

Thanks for putting this together.

MSRP seems to be meaningless. Would be interesting to add a row of actual, real-world pricing given the crazy dealer markups.

As for Rivian exciting shareholders, they will need to do more than magically create a new edition of truck by describing a dual motor version with a cheaper battery. If they aren't going to start shipping it for 1 or 2 or 3 more years, shareholders (like me) are going to yawn. It's vaporware.

Most dealers are not charging a markup over MSRP on Lighting. It's just that the dealers that are get all the attention. The problem is that delivery will be based on dealer allocation and we didn't know what how many a lightnings a dealer would get and what the dealer pricing was going to be when we reserved. I got lucky to be the first to order at my dealer with no mark up and my lightning is scheduled for production first week of May.

I canceled my R1T reservation on 3/1, but I'm going to reinstate it. I was on the fence about getting the R1T due to the shorter bed size, but I'm now considering trading my Lightning in on a quad motor max pack R1T in 2023 as this would be an upgrade at about the same price point given my original reservation price holds up.

 

[Scoiatael]

Ford has the advantage of reusing some of the F150 body parts with the Lightning. That is probably a pretty big cost savings. They probably also get a better deal on batteries since they are buying so much in bulk. Overall the F150 is a lot more cost effective to build, even though its a bigger truck.

I wouldn't compare dual motor R1T pricing right now, because if delivery dates are 2 years away, the cost is most certainly going to go up. I doubt we'll see a 20k jump, I'm sure Rivian learned their lesson, but I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing the price creep up in 1k-3k increments like Tesla has been doing with the Model Y.

 

[thrill]

I'm of the opinion that the dual motor is overall a business mistake. Rivian is known right now (or, well, soon) for its quad motor, and they're the only company doing that (not counting whatstheirfaces with the aborted hub motors). It's their specialty, and the engineering that has and will go into making that special is all theirs, at least for now. I think they'll make plenty of money, and more importantly, not dilute the brand name, by sticking to making quad motors that deliver plenty of performance and at premium prices, along with premium margins.

 

[Iwantatesla]

I'm of the opinion that the dual motor is overall a business mistake. Rivian is known right now (or, well, soon) for its quad motor, and they're the only company doing that (not counting whatstheirfaces with the aborted hub motors). It's their specialty, and the engineering that has and will go into making that special is all theirs, at least for now. I think they'll make plenty of money, and more importantly, not dilute the brand name, by sticking to making quad motors that deliver plenty of performance and at premium prices, along with premium margins.

Dual Motor that's digitally controlled is more than enough. There are a ton of benefits to dropping the two for most practical use cases. Range is going to increase and it will be more than enough traction for the majority of use cases. It's also going to help driving dynamics a ton since it's taking off weight at the corners.

 

[KiloV]

There is a lot of hysteria surrounding the first ~70k reservations, their pricing, and options, etc. One thing that has been glossed over by us reservation holders is this new Rivian pricing strategy and market positioning. I believe Rivian will excite shareholders with their announcement of lower tier models and options, paired with higher profitibility.

Attached is a chart comparing a few Rivian and Ford models that gives us an idea of where they are headed.
Q: Is the new R1T Dual Motor still a compelling sale vs the competition?
A: Yes - as you can see, customers that will be purchasing the new R1T dual motor are still getting a premium positioned product for the price.
I also included the Quad Motor pre March 1 pricing as reference.

What do you think, will Rivian's new pricing structure be a win in the long term? Is it still a good deal with 'only' 600 hp?

Great analysis. I think this very clearly shows Rivian's thought process on re-aligning their pricing. Had they done a better job of prepping their customer base with an analysis kinda like this one, it would've helped a lot. Combine thoughtful analysis like this with a graduated price bump scheme based on how long pre-order holders have been in line and most people would've been completely fine with the changes. In any case, nice job on your analysis. Thanks for the insight.

 

[EVTruckSeeker]

It’s still unknown right now but Rivian may try to achieve range closer to quad motor max battery on a dual motor large battery which will can make a compelling case for existing reservation holders to change their configuration. I think it’s quite achievable considering the weight reduction and the optimization that they can do with in house motors and drivetrain.

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