Has Rivian lost the battle AND the war?

[Scoiatael]

There is always going to be competition. Saying Rivian lost the war because other manufacturers are going to make full sized EV SUVs makes no sense. Thats like saying Ford lost the muscle car war because Chevy updated their Camaro. Rivian still has one thing that the other manufacturers don't, and that is direct to consumer. Not dealing with dealership bullshit is a huge plus.

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[Cavalryscout18]

Longtime lurker with March 2021 pre-order date. My original and current configuration is an Adventure R1T with the Max Pack. I'm keeping the Max Pack because every available inch of towing is important to me. So likely (hopefully) I'll see a vehicle in roughly a year. While my 2500 Suburban 3/4 ton has done good for me, in the interim I need a new tow vehicle. So I'm off to the Chevy dealership next week to pick-up a new Silverado 3500 Diesel. A MUCH different vehicle than the R1T!

With that background and to the point.. I was reading the news today of the arrival of the Mercedes EQS EV SUV in showrooms later this year. No pricing yet but likely around $100k. Then there is the Hyundai Ioniq 5 around $55k. Both sharp looking SUV EVs. Then you have the R1S with a base price of $79k to upwards of $90k for an Quad Motor equip Adventure R1S. So I pose the question...for someone shopping for an SUV EV today...who would choose an R1S to put a deposit on? It strikes me that the answer is "no one." The R1S is so very misplaced in the marketplace; it doesn't seem to fit anywhere. Mercedes has luxury sewed up at the moment with EQS in my mind. Hyundai will dominate the mid market almost certainly. Maybe for a select few niche buyers R1S I suppose..because they want a tank turn?

Then there is the R1T. I'd love to have it now. It would solve a bunch of problems for me. Give me ONE vehicle as Daily driver, occasional tow vehicle with lot's of early adopter coolness. But I can't get one for a year. In the meantime I'll be driving around a Chevy diesel and probably talk to the dealer about getting in the Silverado EV line while I'm there next week. In a year from now, am I really still gonna want the R1T? I don't know but I'm guessing I might not. Particularly when I have a perfectly good 1 year old diesel AND MAYBE just a hop skip and jump away from getting into Silverado EV with just a little more waiting. A truck with an actual dealer to service it and very little corporate existential risk.

Of course all of this is mostly off the cuff thoughts, particular to me and just my opinion. But with each passing day it seems clearer and clearer to me that Rivian has lost the EV SUV & truck battle AND likely the war as well.

There is no way that SUV will cost $100k. I could easily see that being over $120k for their lower trim model and $135k for their higher trim. It’s the same problem as before: there is no similar sized 7 seat SUV that matches the capability or price of the Rivian.

 

[LaunchGreen]

Everyone knows it, but Im gonna say it: Mercedes are for douches.

While I understand where the OP is coming from, Rivian is not trying to compete in the mercedes market. It’s Land Rover / Jeep. Using th same logic, one would wonder why anyone purchases a Land Rover now when you could just buy a Mercedes?

Seriously though, I wouldn’t drive one if you paid me to. Totally wrong image for me - I run a tech company and the image to staff is much different.

 

[SeaGeo]

Everyone knows it, but Im gonna say it: Mercedes are for douches.

I run a tech company

??

Edit: In case it's not obvious, I'm just teasing you @LaunchGreen.

 

[Speedrye]

Looking at the vehicles in everybody's signature should be all one needs to know about the Rivian customer base. They're creating a niche and taking a bit of market share away from seemingly everybody.

 

[997.2]

It's impressive how consistently people think this is a bad take. Even for here.

I don't know what this comment means. What am I missing?

 

[997.2]

Everyone knows it, but Im gonna say it: Mercedes are for douches.

Mention any luxury brand and someone will label it as a douche mobile. But owning a "luxury" brand vehicle comes with the baggage of the brand whether people want to admit it or not. Frankly owning "X" simply because it is "X" and represents a status symbol if fine by me. If that is what someone wants...live and let live. Mercedes DOES makes a great car. Their technology from F1 filters down to their production cars, which I love. I never ever ever thought I'd want to own a modern Mercedes....but I bought an GLA 45 AMG as a daily driver a couple years ago. I bought it because I thought it would be different, odd and fun. Also because of the engine technology. It's the the most HP/liter of ANY production car in the world. In a small hatchback. It's the most fun, stupidest, age inappropriate (I'm 55) most functional car I've every own. It's got 4 doors a hatchback, tow my utility trailer around town with it, ice race it in the winter. I love it even though though I may look slightly douchy driving it. But I digress.....

 

[Speedrye]

I don't know what this comment means. What am I missing?

As a whole, this forum doesn't seem to agree on much. However, in the case of your poll, there seems to me remarkable agreement with one take.

 

[997.2]

As a whole, this forum doesn't seem to agree on much. However, in the case of your poll, there seems to me remarkable agreement with one take.

Ah, got it!

 

[KiloV]

Rivian's stated goal is to capture 10% of the EV market. Thinking that Rivian would capture 100% of the full-sized SUV market was never part of the equation, as far as I know.

Scaringe has said many times that more vehicles of every type and at every price point will be required to replace the entire combustion fleet with an EV fleet. I think he's right. I want MB to make a $150K EQS SUV (Lucid as well, with Gravity). I want Hyundai to make a full-size street-focused electric SUV (Ionic 7?), at a similar price point to the R1S entry-level spec. I want an electric Bronco! Electrifying at every price point and in every segment helps accomplish the mission: Making ICE vehicles obsolete.

The R1T and the R1S are Rivian's introductory vehicles. They wanted to make a splash with these vehicles. They have made a bit of a splash, although their launch has been hamstrung by the pandemic and its fallout. Rivian's big push will be with the R2 vehicles and beyond. They plan to move down-market into more cost-effective solutions, according to everything that they have said so far. Expect a CUV to compete with the Model Y and the Mach E. Expect a Jeep Wrangler/Bronco competitor. Expect a compact pickup. Expect a no-frills, fleet-focused pickup and van.

I'm an R1T owner. If the Chevy EValanche were available today, even at a lower price point than the R1T, I wouldn't want one. It's going to be too big and not as capable as the R1T, for my purposes. But, everyone has their own unique set of wants/needs, so variety is a good thing.

 

[Spiffster]

I have a reservation in for a LE R1T but I think the killer product is gonna be consumer versions of the Amazon van converted to RVs. As others have mentioned, the R1T and R1S are very different vehicles than what Mercedes and the like are selling. This company has massive potential IMO.

 

[junkanoo]

Look at the number of vehicles sold annually by Subaru and Land Rover (and Jeep, and 4Runner’s). Don’t underestimate the size of the adventure market (and the adventure brand market for people who don’t actually “adventure”) at all price points.

snip .... that’s why I’ve been sitting here as a former Land Rover/Range Rover owner biding my time for 3 years….the R1S has hit a HUGE home run taking Land Rover customers…and you’ll see a few $250,000 G -Wagon converts to the R1S after getting smoked on the line.

The SUV and Truck market is huge. How much of a market share does Rivian need to succeed...a 835 HP 7-seater SUV doesn't compete against an Ioniq5 or ID4. It doesn't even compete directly against an EQS SUV. The R1 models are flagship models just like the Tesla Model S was back in the day. Rivian will start adding cheaper volume models in the years to come. The cheaper versions of the R1 are just a lower tier before they can add cheaper models like the Y and 3.
Let's see how long it takes until the California Private School soccer moms start replacing their Range Rovers with "environmentally" conscious R1Ss...a Mercedes GLS, BMW X7, Range Rover, etc. are all well into the 100s especially if they are motorized anywhere near the R1S...the higher level EQS SUV won't start below $130k and that's before the 30-page options list.
The R1S at the early reservation price is the best value you can get out there, especially with the $7,500 federal credit and thousands of $$ in state credits on top.
In Colorado, the R1S LE is $65,500 after tax credits for a 0-60 in 3s 7-seater SUV with air suspension, and the reviews the R1T has gotten...what's not to like...my Porsche Cayenne GTS feels like an under motorized Ford after test driving the R1T and a brand new GTS with 453 HP and 4.5s 0-60 costs $109k and Porsche is famous for the long options list...the only thing cheaper on the Porsche will be paint and wheels...the rest will easily take you to $130k.

I live in Lower-Fairfield County Connecticut, which also could be known as Range Rover Central. Moms love being high on the road (something that Tesla doesn't do for them) and doesn't cost as much as a G-Wagon, yet can get them and Taylor and Brandon up to their ski place in comfort and style. However, they hate the number of times that the Range Rover is in the shop and what it costs them to get it out. They would drop their Range Rover like a bad habit if the reliability of the R1S proves itself.

The R1T can be a winner, simply because there will be a supply/demand imbalance for years. However, if the Ford Lightning (with a much better thought out fronk and a larger bed) and with about the same range as the R1T doesn't stub its feet on handling and fit and finish ... and production is significant ... Rivian's longer term truck market will depend on a far superior R2T.

 

[Redline]

I'll just say the poll results speak for themselves...

 

[E.S.]

Funny! Well I was bored, had a thought and the moderator approved my account. If necessity was the benchmark...none of us would be ordering a Rivian!

WhuchatalkingaboutWillis? I F'ing NEED my R1T

Still, this poll was beyond redundant. Just pointing out how poll-crazed this forum is ?

 

[zipzag]

I feel that it's the wrong question. Rivian's choice of what to build is excellent. It looks to me that Rivian will sell out production for the next five years or more.

I feel the issue is whether Rivian can grow enough this decade to be a substantial company and a good investment. I have trouble seeing the path to sufficient scale. So I feel that the most likely future is Rivian being part of another company. What will it look like for owners if Rivian can't acquire sufficient investment to grow?

While I don't like where Rivian is at "by the numbers", I am positive about the many good decisions they have made up to this point. If they are successful financially it will be because of the quality of the company, not because of their timing in entering the EV market.

Musk was the right man at the right time with the right ideas. But that personality in a company Rivian's size today would probably be a disaster. Tesla is a once in a century company. I don't see another Tesla in this space.

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