Question for people who know manufacturing

[SoCal Rob]

I’m just an IT guy who likes to improve systems which interact with people and I know a little about cars, except for vehicle production about which I know effectively zero.

Right now I see a LOT of people getting frustrated because they haven’t had so much as a guide contact and they are seeing people who ordered long after they did getting deliveries. It seems to me that the delivery of vehicles to people seemingly at random could possibly be fixed or at least improved by tweaks to the ordering process.

I suspect that part of the problem may be of Rivian’s own making because they allowed and encouraged people to revise their configurations. From my perspective, I don’t see how they can effectively plan production with people constantly changing the components involved in their build.

If that’s the case, I wonder if Rivian would be better off telling people that when they reserve their order it is effectively locked until they’re assigned a guide. If folks want to experiment with their configuration after they reserve and before they are assigned a guide then they are free to do it online, but there is no ability to modify your reserved config. They can play, ”What if?” to their heart’s content but they can’t affect their reservation… yet.

My thought is that once a guide is assigned shortly before production, a buyer can commit to their initial config via the PBA and work with their guide to complete their purchase and delivery. However, if they want to make changes then the guide can assist them and (hopefully) give them accurate information about how changes will impact their production timeline so the buyer can make an informed decision.

As part of this process change I think that Rivian would benefit from allowing customers placing a reservation to choose up to three configurations when placing their reservation. Another option would be to let people choose multiple options for their single config so, as an example, people could indicate that they’d be happy with any of several exterior colors. Either of these would allow Rivian to have a better chance of matching vehicles to reservation holders in chronological order via filtering whenever a vehicle is suddenly available for some reason: sort by reservation date and then by people who would consider that config acceptable. Right now it seems as if a guide will contact a seemingly random person to offer them a chance at an already built vehicle. This seems to be bugging people… a lot.

I’m sure the issues are even more complex than what we see as outsiders. So, manufacturing folks, am I envisioning the constant config change variable as a significant problem when in reality it isn’t? Legacy manufacturers seem to limit the time you can make changes when ordering a vehicle and I suspect that this is why. While it is clearly possible to let people modify their reserved config whenever they want, I can’t help but think that doing so makes procurement and production planning harder than it needs to be.

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[crashmtb]

I’ve been around manufacturing since before I was born and have worked in manufacturing for 20 years now.

Therefore I am qualified to sum it up thusly…

JIT is biting companies in the ass right now..with right now meaning the last two years.

If things are working “normally”, most auto manufacturers don’t need you to lock in your order until it’s scheduled for production, because supply chains are tight enough that changes can be accommodated easily - it’s not so much a matter of “we only ordered X amount of that wheel this year and they’re all gone”.
so flip flopping on your detail options doesn’t matter. Especially when there are only two models.

there are some actual manufacturing engineers kicking around here like @Zoidz who can provide more useful perspective than I can though.

 

[kneebuster]

I don't have the sense that they are making trucks to order. They seem to be making batches with various configs, then matching them with potential buyers. If no long-standing reservation holders in the right geographic locations are interested, they go down the list, thus newer reservations are getting vehicles. It's probably efficient, but leading to ill-will amongst long time backers.
My guide ran through a spreadsheet he had of already built vehicles in Normal, trying to match me with one. I wasn't willing to take any of them. The next day (a Fri) he had one that was acceptable, and I asked for an hour to consider. I left a message but didn't hear back till Mon, at which point my stated config was available.

 

[Mysta]

That’s what they’re doing. Swapping to where you either just have a res with no config or once you set your config it’s set. Similar to Tesla.

 

[lostpacket]

So the Head of Production has been under tremendous pressure and was really stressing out over supply constraints, worrying about swapped computer chips, etc. Then RJ told him "relax! you need to mellow out." The Head of Production misheard this as "yellow out" and proceeded to have the assembly line build the first 4000 trucks as Compass Yellow. They have since realized to miscommunication but they are scrambling to repaint all the trucks.

 

[lostpacket]

I’ve been around manufacturing since before I was born and have worked in manufacturing for 20 years now.

Therefore I am qualified to sum it up thusly…

JIT is biting companies in the ass right now..with right now meaning the last two years.

If things are working “normally”, most auto manufacturers don’t need you to lock in your order until it’s scheduled for production, because supply chains are tight enough that changes can be accommodated easily - it’s not so much a matter of “we only ordered X amount of that wheel this year and they’re all gone”.
so flip flopping on your detail options doesn’t matter. Especially when there are only two models.

there are some actual manufacturing engineers kicking around here like @Zoidz who can provide more useful perspective than I can though.

Putting my serious hat back on... I am actually curious about this too. Presumably the opposite of JIT is "plan for a rainy day".

Since right now auto manufacturers are likely losing billions in sales, I wonder if they are calculating if JIT really saved them money in the end. My understanding of the idea behind JIT is to save money on storage, save on wasted/unused parts at the end of a run, and generally be nimble and able to adapt. But despite the current situation where they are losing billions, it seems like it hasnt ever rained quite like this before.

(I ask this as like @SoCal Rob I dont know anything about manufacturing.)

 

[Davethadog]

There really isn't that much difference in any of the configurations offered at the moment. There's some tow hooks, a tonneau, an undersheild, wheel choices, and some accessories which don't really count towards a configuration. Paint can be adjusted on the fly and rivian gets the best survey of preferred colors based on what the existing configurations are. There are not the myriad packages and feature paths that one needs to take to arrive at a preferred vehicle the way there are with other mfgs.

I am only a paint engineer so I'm just speculating here, but I think the real issue is Rivian's ability to deliver combined with teething issues and not really having a fully formed set of automated tools to deliver in sequence.

 

[Guy]

There really isn't that much difference in any of the configurations offered at the moment. There's some tow hooks, a tonneau, an undersheild, wheel choices, and some accessories which don't really count towards a configuration. Paint can be adjusted on the fly and rivian gets the best survey of preferred colors based on what the existing configurations are. There are not the myriad packages and feature paths that one needs to take to arrive at a preferred vehicle the way there are with other mfgs.

I am only a paint engineer so I'm just speculating here, but I think the real issue is Rivian's ability to deliver combined with teething issues and not really having a fully formed set of automated tools to deliver in sequence.

Agreed, the paint color is not an issue as that can be adjusted.
I wonder how they will cope when they have three battery sizes, two specifications, two vehicles, three interiors etc. at the moment but is relatively straightforward as just Adventure (Or LE with free upgraded wheels) trim vehicles and two interiors. They should be able to find 2019 and 2020 reservation holders before going to late 2021 holders.

 

[SoCal Rob]

There really isn't that much difference in any of the configurations offered at the moment. There's some tow hooks, a tonneau, an undersheild, wheel choices, and some accessories which don't really count towards a configuration. Paint can be adjusted on the fly and rivian gets the best survey of preferred colors based on what the existing configurations are. There are not the myriad packages and feature paths that one needs to take to arrive at a preferred vehicle the way there are with other mfgs.

I am only a paint engineer so I'm just speculating here, but I think the real issue is Rivian's ability to deliver combined with teething issues and not really having a fully formed set of automated tools to deliver in sequence.

Right, I don’t think that making vehicles in different colors is a technical stretch, but that making vehicles in the colors people want in the order they want them is causing them problems. Right now they are making R1Ts in 2 trims (LE & Adventure), 1 motor setup (quad), 1 battery size (large), 9 paint colors, 6 wheel styles, 3 interior colors, 1 tonneau style (power) and 2 under body shields (regular & off road). I think that’s 648 combinations they can produce.

Outside of the supply chain issues, it seems like Rivian is struggling to make what people actually want, in the order the requests were placed, and while taking into account where they need to be delivered.

Maybe I should’ve asked what is causing them to struggle. I assumed it was making what people actually want (seems difficult to me since it is determined by configuration which is constantly changing in their current ordering process) in the order the requests were placed (seems easy to me: sort by reservation date and time) so I was speculating that making what seems like the difficult part easier would improve things.

If they had never given people the impression that they’d be delivering vehicles to people in anything close to the order that reservations were placed then there probably wouldn’t be so much frustration by early reservation holders.

 

[Northish]

So, manufacturing folks, am I envisioning the constant config change variable as a significant problem when in reality it isn’t?

Hello there, I'm a [double checks annoyingly long job title quick] Global Lean Value Stream Manufacturing Technology Engineer. Really rolls off the tongue, eh? I'll give me two cents as I am in the midst of a a couple product launches using value streams in both the US and Asia.

It's not so much changing configurations that is affecting delivery, they're just variations on a theme. From what I've seen in my role it's more-so getting all the pieces together to make the darn things; just as RJ has been saying for his vehicles.

As you correctly noted, "I’m sure the issues are even more complex than what we see as outsiders." Everything is globally intertwined in this world. Remember winter storm Uri from early 2021? I can tell you that event is still affecting downstream supply chains. And that was over a year ago now.

A "supply chain" is just that, a series of complicated steps from right to left that all need to go right to accomplish something. And building a vehicle is at the extreme right end of the chain. Now think upstream about all the process needed to make something. It can be overwhelming to think about so let's focus on something specific like a gear tunnel door.

There's the door, latching mechanism, plastic moldings, fasteners, weather seals, adhesives, etc. And they all have their own mfg. steps and suppliers and supply chains.

Let's zoom in on the weatherstripping. What is that made out of? Polymers and additives and it's attached with adhesive also made from polymers and additives; and not just one or two ingredients, but likely 5 to 10 compounds coming together to make them.

Now go upstream for each of those ingredients. What feedstocks make them? Were any of the chemical facilities making them affected by Uri? Or have temporary shut-downs due to Covid sicknesses? Or issues with transporting them from origin to customer from cargo ships stuck in port or a lack of truck drivers?

Do that for every part of whatever vehicle you are in... It's amazing/crippling to think about how complex supply chains are in totality and it's no wonder there are lots of delays in the world at the moment.

 

[SoCal Rob]

Hello there, I'm a [double checks annoyingly long job title quick] Global Lean Value Stream Manufacturing Technology Engineer. Really rolls off the tongue, eh? I'll give me two cents as I am in the midst of a a couple product launches using value streams in both the US and Asia.

It's not so much changing configurations that is affecting delivery, they're just variations on a theme. From what I've seen in my role it's more-so getting all the pieces together to make the darn things; just as RJ has been saying for his vehicles.

As you correctly noted, "I’m sure the issues are even more complex than what we see as outsiders." Everything is globally intertwined in this world. Remember winter storm Uri from early 2021? I can tell you that event is still affecting downstream supply chains. And that was over a year ago now.

A "supply chain" is just that, a series of complicated steps from right to left that all need to go right to accomplish something. And building a vehicle is at the extreme right end of the chain. Now think upstream about all the process needed to make something. It can be overwhelming to think about so let's focus on something specific like a gear tunnel door.

There's the door, latching mechanism, plastic moldings, fasteners, weather seals, adhesives, etc. And they all have their own mfg. steps and suppliers and supply chains.

Let's zoom in on the weatherstripping. What is that made out of? Polymers and additives and it's attached with adhesive also made from polymers and additives; and not just one or two ingredients, but likely 5 to 10 compounds coming together to make them.

Now go upstream for each of those ingredients. What feedstocks make them? Were any of the chemical facilities making them affected by Uri? Or have temporary shut-downs due to Covid sicknesses? Or issues with transporting them from origin to customer from cargo ships stuck in port or a lack of truck drivers?

Do that for every part of whatever vehicle you are in... It's amazing/crippling to think about how complex supply chains are in totality and it's no wonder there are lots of delays in the world at the moment.

Thanks for the detailed reply and for giving us a better idea of the complexity of the situation!

I don’t think I’m expressing myself well, my understanding of what’s going on at Rivian is worse than the meager amount I think it is, or both. My concern isn’t that they aren’t building enough vehicles but rather that given the resources they have to make vehicles in whatever combinations are possible, they don’t seem to be using their limited resources to build vehicles which match reserved configurations by reservation date and/or delivery location.

So, as an example, I’ve seen several posts where individuals with an earlier reservation have seen someone in their physical location (in one case a neighbor) with an identical or close enough configuration to theirs, get the later reservation delivered before the earlier reservation and in some cases before the earlier reservation was assigned a guide. These are all cases where the earlier reservation was capable of being built (R1T, large pack, power tonneau, Black Mountain interior) yet it wasn’t.

Maybe this isn’t really a manufacturing problem but some other area. Who or what tells the assembly line what to build and when to build it? In my simplistic view I think of this as MRP and I imagine it falls under Manufacturing (organization unit) even if it isn’t the act of manufacturing something. When there are supply constraints limiting what the assembly line can build (e.g. no Ocean Coast interiors) how is this information fed back to the planning area and how do they use it to build vehicles which match reserved configurations by reservation date and/or delivery location?

This whole thing really isn’t a “me” issue in that I’m a relatively late reservation and I’m content to wait for the config I want. I just see a lot of people getting upset (understandably) and it seems like at least some of them (R1T with large pack configured or willing to accept large pack and with Black Mountain interior configured or willing to accept Black Mountain) could be satisfied within the constraints of what is possible.

 

[Houston_Longhorn]

I also think the SCs are playing a bigger role in this than we realize. These are first generation vehicles, they are going to have issues. We have one recall public thus far, and I expect there will be more in the next 12 months. (How many does Tesla typically have when they deploy a new model?)

If I was RJ, I would want the majority of the cars I shipped right now to be within an hour of an SC. And not just any SC, an SC where I have some confidence in the staffing quality and the staffing level. He doesn’t want endless backlogs of delivered vehicles sitting at SCs waiting for maintenance. He doesn’t want stories in the press of people driving hours to get a safety recall serviced.

To achieve that, I might have guides find people who live within ## miles of an SC that I have comfort with and try to match them up with a vehicle. And as I gain confidence in an SC, I might increase the radius around that SC for delivering vehicles.

I certainly don’t think this is the whole story, just a component. But it is a component that would be totally invisible to outsiders and make it seem like a lottery.

 

[SoCal Rob]

I also think the SCs are playing a bigger role in this than we realize. These are first generation vehicles, they are going to have issues. We have one recall public thus far, and I expect there will be more in the next 12 months. (How many does Tesla typically have when they deploy a new model?)

If I was RJ, I would want the majority of the cars I shipped right now to be within an hour of an SC. And not just any SC, an SC where I have some confidence in the staffing quality and the staffing level. He doesn’t want endless backlogs of delivered vehicles sitting at SCs waiting for maintenance. He doesn’t want stories in the press of people driving hours to get a safety recall serviced.

To achieve that, I might have guides find people who live within ## miles of an SC that I have comfort with and try to match them up with a vehicle. And as I gain confidence in an SC, I might increase the radius around that SC for delivering vehicles.

I certainly don’t think this is the whole story, just a component. But it is a component that would be totally invisible to outsiders and make it seem like a lottery.

Excellent point about the Service Centers. The fact that they aren’t discussing this consideration probably goes back to Rivian communications, which is an evergreen topic on the forum, to say the least.

 

[Northish]

So, as an example, I’ve seen several posts where individuals with an earlier reservation have seen someone in their physical location (in one case a neighbor) with an identical or close enough configuration to theirs, get the later reservation delivered before the earlier reservation and in some cases before the earlier reservation was assigned a guide.

Agree, these occurrences really do seem to defy logic and I feel for those who are caught up in those weird situations. I've been following the one example you mention as well and that was an odd one. I'm not sure how exactly that happens and I wish I knew the details in that specific instance but I can see it happening. Also, these negative experiences tend to cause us to log in and post about as catharsis so for every frustrating story there are hopefully 20 good, logical deliveries and ppl are too busy enjoying their trucks to bother logging in and writing about it.

Having worked alongside mfg. line Analysts, or Schedulers as I know them, I just know that there are variables even beyond parts availability that they must account for when setting a production schedule. For example, they may be considering line operators as well to make sure that they aren't being yanked around minute by minute. These folks have lives outside work and I know that chaotic shift scheduling is a great way to lose skilled people.

Perhaps they're running trials on the manufacturing line to try to improve assembly efficiency or quality and need to run specific configs out of pre-order logic to validate the improvements and it results in a truck being produced that matches a very late PO holder so it appears to defy reason, but there really is a good reason behind the scenes.

And maybe there are issues distributing trucks to SC's, where perhaps they know they can't get vehicles to one location due to a drive shortage so they'll prioritize trucks to another SC. Or as @Houston_Longhorn mentioned, perhaps SC confidence and backlog are factoring in and causing what seems illogical to us outsiders.

What I do hope is happening in the instances where one person seems shorted is that it means five others have been able to take a more timely delivery. It has to be a very stressful time for the people at Rivian trying to make order out of all the moving targets. Oh to be a fly on the wall in some of their planning meetings.

 

[Zoidz]

I’m just an IT guy who likes to improve systems which interact with people and I know a little about cars, except for vehicle production about which I know effectively zero.

Right now I see a LOT of people getting frustrated because they haven’t had so much as a guide contact and they are seeing people who ordered long after they did getting deliveries. It seems to me that the delivery of vehicles to people seemingly at random could possibly be fixed or at least improved by tweaks to the ordering process.

I suspect that part of the problem may be of Rivian’s own making because they allowed and encouraged people to revise their configurations. From my perspective, I don’t see how they can effectively plan production with people constantly changing the components involved in their build.

If that’s the case, I wonder if Rivian would be better off telling people that when they reserve their order it is effectively locked until they’re assigned a guide. If folks want to experiment with their configuration after they reserve and before they are assigned a guide then they are free to do it online, but there is no ability to modify your reserved config. They can play, ”What if?” to their heart’s content but they can’t affect their reservation… yet.

My thought is that once a guide is assigned shortly before production, a buyer can commit to their initial config via the PBA and work with their guide to complete their purchase and delivery. However, if they want to make changes then the guide can assist them and (hopefully) give them accurate information about how changes will impact their production timeline so the buyer can make an informed decision.

As part of this process change I think that Rivian would benefit from allowing customers placing a reservation to choose up to three configurations when placing their reservation. Another option would be to let people choose multiple options for their single config so, as an example, people could indicate that they’d be happy with any of several exterior colors. Either of these would allow Rivian to have a better chance of matching vehicles to reservation holders in chronological order via filtering whenever a vehicle is suddenly available for some reason: sort by reservation date and then by people who would consider that config acceptable. Right now it seems as if a guide will contact a seemingly random person to offer them a chance at an already built vehicle. This seems to be bugging people… a lot.

I’m sure the issues are even more complex than what we see as outsiders. So, manufacturing folks, am I envisioning the constant config change variable as a significant problem when in reality it isn’t? Legacy manufacturers seem to limit the time you can make changes when ordering a vehicle and I suspect that this is why. While it is clearly possible to let people modify their reserved config whenever they want, I can’t help but think that doing so makes procurement and production planning harder than it needs to be.

I've worked in a lot of different roles over the years related to manufacturing engineering, from electrical design to PLC programming to MES (Manufacturing Execution System) data discovery, architecture design, SAP interfaces (argghh ?), programming and startup/go-live on the plant floor. I've worked hands on planning/designing with people from the C Suite to training operators on the plant floor using the MES. Much of it was/is food manufacturing related, but also some specialty steel work. Many of the concepts, challenges and issues are quite similar.

Stick with me here for a bit, I will get to my thoughts about Rivian, but some context helps. From my perspective there's two distinct layers at the manufacturing level. MRP (Material Requirements Planning) and MES. In general, the data flow is Customer Order Entry --> MRP --> MES. SAP does MRP quite well - at a co$t. But they really don't have strong ability to interface to plant floor equipment (they will tell you otherwise, lol). MRP can determine what you need when and where in a big picture. But it's a bigger challenge for something like SAP to connect all the pieces on the plant floor at the time of assembly, send work instructions to the operators AND machines, and ensure that everything is coordinated. If you ordered FG interior, the 3rd row seats in your R1S better not stage as OC when your vehicle is on the line being built!

Having seen MRP/MES in operation at the BMW Mini factory about 10 - 12 years ago, I imagine it's what Rivian has in mind. At Mini, the customer orders can be changed up to 2-4 weeks before build, as I recall. Once it is scheduled, you are locked in. As an example, the dashboard assembly is manufactured 7-10 days before vehicle assembly at a 3rd party OEM nearby. They ship the dash assemblies for each day's production in racks, staged in the order of VIN assembly. When your Mini comes down the line, they scan a barcode to ensure it's YOUR dashbard and it is installed in about 2 minutes. That sounds easy to accomplish, trust me, it's not. There is a ton of workflow programming, OEM coordination, etc. etc. going on to make this happen. Now multiply that by dozens or hundreds of options. Think about the behind the scenes programming required to coordinate your paint color, interior color, wheel options, etc. and manage the plant floor work cells in real time so that it is all staged properly in real time on your build day. It's quite complex. GM, Ford, BMW had decades to incrementally develop this capability. Rivian is trying to do it in a year or two. You can't just buy this stuff off the shelf ready to use like Microsoft Office. I have a close friend who works in the MES integration business. His company was in discussions with Rivian about providing developers for this type of work a few months ago, so there's a bit of a clue as to what's going on.

My guess is that Rivian was/is trying to develop this level of JIT production, but is finding out how incredibly difficult it is. So the easiest solution is limit the vehicle options and build batches of identical vehicles, instead of building to each customer order specification. Right now, it seems like the primary variables they are working with are body and interior color, and wheels.

So, it's mostly conjecture on my part, but I don't think the current delivery situation is dictated primarily by supply chain lead time or customers changing options multiple times months ahead. My guess is that it is more related to the inability to sequentially manage/stage the required components for specific customer orders in real time on build day.

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