“New” Quad Motor R1T pricing is crazy and not sustainable (even if Cybertruck priced higher than original reveal price estimate)

[HJP1]

Initially Tesla and now Rivian loose money on every EV they sell (I've heard Rivian initial manufacturing costs as high as $150K per vehicle) until production volume ramps up enough to bring costs down, I'm sure Lucid, GM and other EV manufacturers are in the same boat. Sandy Munro is in the business of consulting to auto manufacturers on how to reduce costs which ultimately will reduce quality to varying degrees. Kudos to Rivian for building a very high quality vehicle and sticking to their goal of garnering the reputation of a company like Toyota/Lexus for building very high quality vehicles at competitive pricing. Part of any startup business plan is how long will it take to become profitable, 1 year, 5 years or 10 and will there be enough capital to support that.

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[Timothykf]

The CT is a gimmick. It isn't designed for any real use other than a talking/show piece. Regardless of speed, efficiency, cool factor, or any emotional feeling about the CT - it's not a truck!

What's the cargo volume - much less the cabin! Can it tow? All the other trucks have been shown to be awesome tow vehicles, disregarding efficiency (EV or ICE). How many people use a pickup truck as a work truck, not many.

The CT is like a Delorian, Ferrari, or any 4th car in the garage. It's not a daily driver, it's not a (useful) pickup truck, it's not a mass-production vehicle and never will be. The market for this particular vehicle will be very small, regardless of price. Even at $35k, who's really going to want this vehicle with its' limited space? It's just not practical in the real world.

 

[computertom]

Ford F-150 Raptor with performance package is $110,000....

Still slower than a quad motor R1T.

apples to oranges. If you really want performance, feel, and fun - Raptor. It’s just a totally different beast. Totally. There are real reasons to chose either (size, the Earth, noise…), but driving dynamics coming out of the Ford Motorsports group vs Rivian is not the same league. Now, you need to be someone who actually cares about that, and can even tell, but if you can, you can!

Magazine numbers are not *how* a truck drives.

 

[Bmitch24]

Elon's trying to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. Surely nobody is suggesting that Elon would jeopardize that mission in any way by aggressively leveraging their monopoly like hold on the sector.

 

[WorldComposting]

I don't think they can increase the prices again with the quad being so close in spec to the dual performance. Most people simply don't need the quad and it seems like the on road performance is almost indistinguishable between the two models. I think if anything they will need to up the specs on the quad before talking about any price hikes.

I agree most people don't need the quad (I know I don't) and that might be the eventual goal is to push everyone into the dual performance. From everything I have read the Bosch motors are high cost compared to the enduro and I don't know if they can do a 4 motor enduro so you raise the quad really high so few people want it and they go for the dual motor which is profitable.

 

[COdogman]

I read that manufacturing efficiency/simplicity was built into the concept truck and how Tesla was able to offer the Dual Motor Cybertruck at the 2019 price of $50k.

Manufacturing the truck with aluminum alloy Giga castings and no paint shop were supposedly a big reason behind the affordable price point.

I read the same thing. And as you said, it’s all speculation at this point. I would just add that Musk makes all kinds of claims about all kinds of stuff that never turns out to be true.

To me, Tesla holding back the announcement of their pricing this long supports the idea they are simply trying to hold onto the claim they have all those “reservations” because they know once pricing is announced a large percentage of them will disappear. If the pricing was something they felt people would be excited about they could simply announce it and possibly even add to those reservations.

 

[RivAW]

I read that manufacturing efficiency/simplicity was built into the concept truck and how Tesla was able to offer the Dual Motor Cybertruck at the 2019 price of $50k.

Manufacturing the truck with aluminum alloy Giga castings and no paint shop were supposedly a big reason behind the affordable price point.

You just made that up. There has been no announcement by Tesla confirming which specs will be released or what the pricing will be. This is the problem....lots of misinformation and rumors, but no specs and facts....

 

[evhelphub]

R1T and R1S are still below the new lower Model X prices.

I think people are going to get sticker shock on the Cyber Truck, there is a reason the prices and specs are not being released, that usually does not mean good news.

The model X is a pretty low volume vehicle. Combined sales of S/X are around 60,000 worldwide for the last 4 qtrs. Assuming a generous split that means that the X at best is selling 40,000 units across the world.

Rivian is hoping to get closer to 100k - 125k of these produced per year, right? I don't think they can get there above a $75k price tag which is where the dual motor and standard packs come in. They just need to be compelling enough.

However the near term economy and interest problems are going to impact the business. There's a massive difference between $75k and $90-95k in terms of demand, that's why we went from no one having shop access to many getting it at once with dozens of available vehicles each day.

Rivian will need to pull some levers to get through the next 6 months. Lowering cost is probably the last resort but likely not off the table.

 

[Randy Chase]

I have owned a Tesla and have (probably like many) have a $100 deposit on a cybertruck. I also own a Rivian R1S. In my opinion, the CT is a very different market with the overlap of those that would cross chop the R1T and the CT to be relatively small (tho not zero).


I think the CT is almost an entirely different market. If you have not driven a vehicle that screams LOOK AT ME!, it is not a totally enjoyable experience (I have owned some unique cars). Some people may like it, but many will not. It can get tiring. As a friend once explained when he put his exotic car up for sale... it feels like I put on a tuxedo just to go to the local 7-11. There is also the Musk factor without getting into politics, but it is there. Perhaps if many of the CTs were sold, some of this would go away...but if you are the only one in your town with one... you will have to deal with all of the attention. Some of it because, like it or not, some people think the design is hideous.

There is also the size. I am glad that they shrunk the CT by 5% in order to fit into most garages, but for me it is still huge. I like the size of my Rivian, it is easier for driving on my suburban roads and parking at the grocery store. The CT to me looks more difficult with little extra room because of the size.

The CT may have some features that are not great. One is the very small frunk as compared to the Rivian. No gear tunnel.

Rivian has done very well in developing more of an adventure/outdoor brand as well as a community (beyond fan bois). They have done a good job at developing the brand. If you have visited a Tesla showroom vs a Rivian showroom, you can see the difference. That is marketing of course... but I think many people like Rivian as a brand.

There have been some hints that that CT may be a surprising lower price (though I doubt they will be at the initial reveal pricing).

I have not yet dropped off the reservation list...because it is only $100... I suspect I am not alone in this. When it comes down to placing orders, it will be interesting to see how many really follow through.

In the end, to me, this has little impact of the fortunes of Rivian.

 

[Trandall]

Kudos for acknowledging the merits of my argument and then disagreeing and not making it a knife fight. Civilized discourse on forums is jarring when it happens, "this is normal human interaction" and then "wait, this is normal?!"

My bet is they'll be making like $1-2k per car max and they'll only be there because they know if they take a loss they'll gain regulator attention.

People are losing sight of the anti-trust, as in, not considering it at all because they're focused on the overall BEV market share, which is low. Granted that leaves time for the game to play out differently than what I'm about to say but they're failing to consider that Tesla has a monopoly-like hold on that sector and it's set in stone that sector will go from say 7.5% to 100%.

We as Rivian fans should be aware of this dynamic as the Cyber Truck looks to align itself as a loss lead to kill new competition. This, right here, is the start of a monopoly. The first people you crush are the new guys. That's the battle that's being waged no one is talking about. Or barely talking about.

I actually enjoy when others have differing opinions... how boring would it be otherwise.
Agreed Tesla is the gorilla in the room but I don't think their market share will scale linearly with increased EV adoption. I personally think there are room for several manufactures and that some will fail. I'll openly admit I'm a Rivian Fanboy and have outsized optimism they will succeed.

 

[Trandall]

The model X is a pretty low volume vehicle. Combined sales of S/X are around 60,000 worldwide for the last 4 qtrs. Assuming a generous split that means that the X at best is selling 40,000 units across the world.

I've shown my R1T to two Model X owners and for my sample size 100% of model X owners prefer the R1T/S and stated they were going to look into ordering.

 

[evhelphub]

I've shown my R1T to two Model X owners and for my sample size 100% of model X owners prefer the R1T/S and stated they were going to look into ordering.

I'm not surprised. I like it better as well. But there is a negative force working against the market and broadly speaking that is going to make things tough.

 

[Bee]

Initially Tesla and now Rivian loose money on every EV they sell (I've heard Rivian initial manufacturing costs as high as $150K per vehicle) until production volume ramps up enough to bring costs down, I'm sure Lucid, GM and other EV manufacturers are in the same boat. Sandy Munro is in the business of consulting to auto manufacturers on how to reduce costs which ultimately will reduce quality to varying degrees. Kudos to Rivian for building a very high quality vehicle and sticking to their goal of garnering the reputation of a company like Toyota/Lexus for building very high quality vehicles at competitive pricing. Part of any startup business plan is how long will it take to become profitable, 1 year, 5 years or 10 and will there be enough capital to support that.

And always on the tax payers backs (Federal funding for EVs, railroads, oil, etc.) and never back into their pockets.

I actually enjoy when others have differing opinions... how boring would it be otherwise.
Agreed Tesla is the gorilla in the room but I don't think their market share will scale linearly with increased EV adoption. I personally think there are room for several manufactures and that some will fail. I'll openly admit I'm a Rivian Fanboy and have outsized optimism they will succeed.

I don't think it will be Tesla standing alone in the end, but, would something akin to the US airline industry be what we want for autos? I don't think so. I think that's our future. But, our "wheel" appears to be spinning like normal, wtf even is Stellantis, whose heritage, anyone? Jeep is a name. The industry innovates, the industry consolidates. So not the first time the industry looked like that.

Who gets to make it is the fun question. Early leaders people aren't giving enough credit I think is Volvo and GM. I also don't think Tesla will be able to flick off Rivian. Lucid, sure, Rivian, no. Those are my hot-takes

 

[emceter]

As someone who has purchased the R1S at full price for my wife, around 96k MSRP I can tell you I'd happily purchase it all over again at full price. If the truck is as nice as everyone is saying it is comparatively, I will be purchasing an R1T once I finish my payments on the BMW M3 I got for my weekend toy. The R1S is an absolute stunner of a vehicle and I will happily purchase the truck version of it, even around the 100k mark.

 

[HJP1]

As someone who has purchased the R1S at full price for my wife, around 96k MSRP I can tell you I'd happily purchase it all over again at full price. If the truck is as nice as everyone is saying it is comparatively, I will be purchasing an R1T once I finish my payments on the BMW M3 I got for my weekend toy. The R1S is an absolute stunner of a vehicle and I will happily purchase the truck version of it, even around the 100k mark.

I originally had a reservation for an R1S but was too impatient to wait for it and switched to the R1T. I've owned midsize to large SUVs before but never a pickup and boy do I love it! Seats 5 very comfortably (I have no need for a third row) and tons of storage that I never use. I have not driven the R1S but the R1T is everything and anything you would ever want it to be from super car to an off road MAD MAXMOBILE!

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