What's your R2 predictions?

[GogglesPisano]

What if the R2 has been in front of us this whole time?

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[NY_Rob]

I'm a cynic and I'm predicting Rivian to follow their DNA.
Rivian's DNA is:
* Always make the financially savvy move
* Own and control everything about the vehicle, don't consider the possibility of 3rd party mods
* Heavy reliance on software
* Always make the financially savvy move

You forgot the most important rule.... "Be Nice" ?

 

[Epicloop]

Except that half the vehicles sold as suvs are basically sedans, including all of the EV suvs except R1S.

They are definitely not SUV's or sedan's they may be station wagons or CUV's

 

[LeftMySoulinNM]

Since Rivian has maintained $40K~$60K price range AND focused around full $7.5K tax credit for the R2, they will not only have to take lots of features out as well as new battery source (read sourced and made in North America).

1) All LFP batteries
2) All mechanical suspension (probably a strut-based with lower A-arm)
3) No glass roof but sun/moon roof
4) No 3rd row and no vented seats (only heat)
5) Base model is either FWD or RWD, and AWD/DM is for the upper trim level
6) Base model range around 275 miles and AWD is around 260 miles
7) Rear hatch/liftgate window that opens (and not two piece gate)

The focus of the model is targeted towards younger working families with kids and being an everyday replacement vehicle for those that own Outback/Forester, Traverse, Highlander kinds of vehicles. It's also step up from Crosstrek, RAV4 and CR-V class of SUV. Also compete against ID.4, EV6/Ionic 5, Fisker Ocean and smaller eTrons/I-BMWs.

I think they need to get the range above 300 miles to be more relevant and competitive.

 

[mkg3]

I think they need to get the range above 300 miles to be more relevant and competitive.

Fully agree. My range statement was the standard range for F/RWD and AWD versions. Given Large and Max pack options, it will go past 300 miles, at additional costs.

 

[LeftMySoulinNM]

Fully agree. My range statement was the standard range for F/RWD and AWD versions. Given Large and Max pack options, it will go past 300 miles, at additional costs.

They really need to beat the Volvo and other legacy mfr offerings on range and come in competitive with pricing. Hope they can do it.

 

[NY_Rob]

For 300mi range... If they keep the weight down and work on the frontal area they could get close to 3 mi/kWh efficiency most likely, which means a 100kWh (usable) battery would work.
If they elect to go with a smaller 90kWh battery pack, they would have to use "Elon Miles" to reach 300mi range ?

 

[mkg3]

For 300mi range... If they keep the weight down and work on the frontal area they could get close to 3 mi/kWh efficiency most likely, which means a 100kWh (usable) battery would work.
If they elect to go with a smaller 90kWh battery pack, they would have to use "Elon Miles" to reach 300mi range ?

Volvo X30 has 64 kWh battery pack in their base version that gets 275 miles. Starts at $36,245 using Chinese labor rates.

If Rivian puts anywhere near 100 kWh battery pack, they will never make the $40k base target.

Really do not expect anywhere near 300 miles in the base trim level. Again. its an upgrade battery packs is needed to be on the other side of 300 miles.

 

[NY_Rob]

Volvo X30 has 64 kWh battery pack in their base version that gets 275 miles. Starts at $36,245 using Chinese labor rates.

If Rivian puts anywhere near 100 kWh battery pack, they will never make the $40k base target.

Really do not expect anywhere near 300 miles in the base trim level. Again. its an upgrade battery packs is needed to be on the other side of 300 miles.

Rivian is in a tough position as far as battery size on the R2.
I'm no expert, but if you look at the EPA EV Efficiency charts, you'll quickly see anything even slightly resembling a true SUV in shape/form is way down at the bottom of the mi/kWh chart. Even with a slippery, low sedan like the Model 3 it's not easy to consistently hit 4mi/kWh efficiency. So I think I'm being generous when I give Rivian the benefit of "things learned" and hope the R2 will get close to 3mi/kWh efficiency.

Now the quandary for Rivian... what size options do you offer for a price sensitive vehicle that goes 3 miles for 1 kWh consumed? Rivian made their own bed with this one... Want an SUV body? Want to sell your lowest tier for $49,990? You have to keep that battery size down, but that cuts down range. A 70kWh pack will get you 210miles range. For reference, the AWD Long Range Model Y has a 75kWh battery pack and sells for around $50K or less depending on Elon's mood any particular morning.
Is 210 miles range too short? Well, larger sizes cost more so those will add $5-10K or more to the $49,990 price and that will once again price average fence-sitting buyers out.

I'm sure there's been lots of discussions at Rivian regarding the battery options for the R2 vehicle.

 

[usulio]

Wow, this discussion does show how hard it'll be for R2 to thread the needle on range vs price. And I'm sure weight is a big factor as well if the battery pack pushes 100kWh. But if the R1 dual-motor gets 2.7 mi/kWh, maybe the R2 can get 3.2? One thing, it's really hard to believe that the Volvo SUV will get 4.2 mi/kWh, as the above numbers imply.

Now I'm wondering if Rivian will have a single-motor base package just for range reasons. But either way, based on what other companies are doing with different types of models, maybe we'll see something like this?

* $46k Base package 240mi range (0-60 in 5s, 75kWh, maybe one motor?)
* $54k Long-range 300mi range (0-60 in 5s, 95kWh)
* $58k Long-range performance 280mi range (0-60 in 3.5s, 95kWh pack, two motors)
* + $4k off-road package (-15% range)

 

[mkg3]

Rivian is in a tough position as far as battery size on the R2....

Now the quandary for Rivian... what size options do you offer for a price sensitive vehicle that goes 3 miles for 1 kWh consumed? Rivian made their own bed with this one... Want an SUV body? Want to sell your lowest tier for $49,990?....

The thing is, Rivian has always maintained $40K~$60K price range in every earnings call. The base R2 vehicle needs to come in around $40K. I say R2, and not necessarily R2S, because it may be R2T, or R2X, since the truck or crossover are lower cost to produce. They've also said that the R2 is being developed to qualify for the full $7.5k federal credit.

So the question is the price range pre- or post-tax credit?

I'm guessing that its post-tax credit. What happens if the tax credit goes away before R2 hits the road in consumers' hands. So, they have to plan to place the vehicle in a market spot competitive with, or without the credit.

This is why I believe the baseline trim vehicle is sub 300 mile range vehicle. I wouldn't be surprised that some version of R2 can hit 3 miles/kWh in the EPA estimate, but not in real world use.

 

[NY_Rob]

Volvo X30 has 64 kWh battery pack in their base version that gets 275 miles. Starts at $36,245 using Chinese labor rates.

People need to realize how small the Volvo X30 is...

158" BMW i3 length
166" Volvo X30 length
186" Model 3 length
201" R1S length


It's only 8" longer than my i3 which everyone says is tiny!
it's 2" shorter than our old Mazda 3 (168" long) which was a very small car we always considered a 3-seater as the back seat legroom was almost non-existent.

The Volvo X30 weighs 4,000lbs and can only tow 2,000lbs.

From the above specs, I don't think it's comparable to the R2 and it's easy to see how they get 4mi/kWh out of it.

 

[mkg3]

People need to realize how small the Volvo X30 is...

158" BMW i3 length
166" Volvo X30 length
186" Model 3 length
201" R1S length


It's only 8" longer than my i3 which everyone says is tiny!
it's 2" shorter than our old Mazda 3 (168" long) which was a very small car we always considered a 3-seater as the back seat legroom was almost non-existent.

The Volvo X30 weighs 4,000lbs and can only tow 2,000lbs.

From the above specs, I don't think it's comparable to the R2 and it's easy to see how they get 4mi/kWh out of it.

EX30 example is only used to compare what pricing point can do. The way people are speculating what R2 can do is out of step with reality of what $40K starting price vehicle can do based on current economics and costs of major elements of EVs.

Never meant to compare capabilities. The capabilities were pointed out just to say here's what you get for around $36K~$46K, using super low Chinese labor rates and economies of scale that Volvo and Geely brings. Rivian has no such advantages to lower the cost building in US. Rivian should have selected Mexico over GA...

 

[NY_Rob]

EX30 example is only used to compare what pricing point can do. The way people are speculating what R2 can do is out of step with reality of what $40K starting price vehicle can do based on current economics and costs of major elements of EVs.

Understood!

IMO, an actual $40K starting price (not factoring in the $7,500 Fed tax credit/rebate) is going to be impossible based on the Rivian ethos.

 

[R1Tom]

Looks like coil spring/struts in the Q4 shareholder letter.

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