Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[ArghOneTee]

If I was a large investor I wouldn't care about quarterly volume dips due to supply chain issues unless those issues are signs of a bigger problem. Nobody is investing heavily in Rivian because of the R1S or R1T. It's all about the R2 upside.

If I sat through an investor briefing presentation I would tell them to put the R1S/R1T data in the appendix. If you're still on schedule for 1H 2026 and the original projections are still holding up then I'm good. If you're not, and there are bigger issues coming into focus, that's a problem.

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[bfilippo]

Yeah rural America car prices don’t include the inherent competition framework of dense urban centers.

When I went to look at the lightning they literally had a single platinum and single flash, no lariat and my final price after all the “deals” for the flash which I would argue is not nearly as nice as the R1 was $66k.

I’m sure if I lived near an urban area and there was more competition it would have been a different experience and decision process for me.

 

[strykerwsu]

I agree these are $75k vehicles (not based on performance but based on what people will pay).

I'm quite shocked at the poor quality everyone seem to keep mentioning, but maybe I'm the lucky one so far in over 30k of miles and 2 years with our 2 R1's. Haven't had to use service so can't speak to it besides when I've called about simple items someone answered. Not what I've experienced lately with other customers.

I'm still on the wait amd see how R2 does, before they have to make huge strategic shifts.

Overall the biggest risk I see is overall EV market issues as the L3 chargers are not going to keep up woth all the extra vehicles soon to be on the road. It's going to get really ugly in my opinion.

 

[SASSquatch]

Must indicate very weak demand....which isn't surprising to me. At the price point these are....there are way too many people having quality and service issues. And prospective buyers can easily find those stories online. Rivian stuck their head in the sand way too long while that demand seemed inelastic and now the ramifications are becoming evident.

They probably could have got away with one or the other....sketchy quality or hard to access service....but not both at same time. My fear to even consider replacing mine with another....is I have a currently perfect G1 QM....and don't want to roll the dice on another knowing I have a perfect one in hand.

I am in agreement with you that this spells weak demand that Rivian is trying dress up as supply shortage. Tesla also had a bad quarter, which is also not a good sign.

Ford saw growth with the F-150 lightening.

Toyota saw significant growth in the electrified vehicle segment, but it was driven almost entirely by HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) sales.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

I said the exact same thing over and over and I get constantly flamed. Just got our R1S a couple weeks ago. I wanted another Tesla. Wife and I went at it about it. I caved. And I’m nervous every day that I’m going to lose my ass on this car. We like it a lot. But it’s not reliable long term IMo.

My wife couldn't wait for her R1S (after I owned the R1T for 2+ years), so she could get rid of her MY23, which was in service 3x in first 4000 miles. Our R1S has (knock on wood) never had an issue and my R1T with 52,000 miles barely a hiccup and nothing significant.

 

[renderpaz]

Most popular SUV? Lmao. Yeah right. Maybe in deep blue cities that drink the kool aid. I might see 2 a week and that’s pushing it here in the burbs of Phoenix. We like our rivian, but let’s not kid ourselves.

Sorry, premium SUV. Thought people in the *Rivian* forum would know I don't think it outsells the Rav 4.

 

[RivianDeac]

My wife’s early VIN R1S has 21k miles and never been to a SC.
My early VIN R1T has 30k and has been in 3 times.

I have never loved a vehicle more. Such a joy to drive.

Dont forget Connect+ will soon provide a steady revenue stream, the RAN has not been monetized long, and will soon be opening up to other brands.

This too shall pass.

 

[R1TS]

If I was a large investor I wouldn't care about quarterly volume dips due to supply chain issues unless those issues are signs of a bigger problem. Nobody is investing heavily in Rivian because of the R1S or R1T. It's all about the R2 upside.

If I sat through an investor briefing presentation I would tell them to put the R1S/R1T data in the appendix. If you're still on schedule for 1H 2026 and the original projections are still holding up then I'm good. If you're not, and there are bigger issues coming into focus, that's a problem.

13,157 produced.
10,018 delivered.

What part of that looks like this is a supply side issue?

 

[MikeWilliams_R1T]

Rivian still has a bunch of switches it can throw in Q4 to generate surprise revenue streams they are not currently capitalizing (or realizing) yet...

Connect+ subscriptions
OTA Dual Motor Performance unlocks
OTA Standard+ and Large+ unlocks
Opening up RAN network to other OEM's

As a customer, I wish they would invest in their service centers more but let's be honest: They are 100% overhead and not considered profit centers. The next best thing might be to build and grow a service partner network to improve CSAT.

 

[hekhl00]

As others have mentioned, I think RJ will have to waive the white-flag and shift to a dealer model for sales and support. The truth is they were unfortunate on timing of market entry. Late deliverables and premium pricing, coupled with subpar quality and service.

Only early adopters can tolerate these shortcomings, after those, the general SUV market isn't going to tolerate the current woes. You can't pick up a phone and talk to a local service manager for an update on your vehicle, which is what 99% of American's have always done. You can't even speak to someone to actually purchase one....anyway...you oldies know the drill.

Rivian will survive, just not in the original RJ model. I'm sorry RJ, you're going to need to pivot and quickly. As I've noted for 2.5 years, they should be looking at acquisition possibilities, if they aren't already.......

I agree with you but I've not seen much evidence that RJ knows how to waive a white flag. I think he's a borderline genius but my perception is he is also stubborn as hell.

 

[hekhl00]

Rivian still has a bunch of switches it can throw in Q4 to generate surprise revenue streams they are not currently capitalizing (or realizing) yet...

Connect+ subscriptions
OTA Dual Motor Performance unlocks
OTA Standard+ and Large+ unlocks
Opening up RAN network to other OEM's

As a customer, I wish they would invest in their service centers more but let's be honest: They are 100% overhead and not considered profit centers. The next best thing might be to build and grow a service partner network to improve CSAT.

Is Connect+ really a revenue stream? Seems like it may be more of just offsetting cost.

 

[ArghOneTee]

13,157 produced.
10,018 delivered.

What part of that looks like this is a supply side issue?

My point is, if I'm them, the upside to my invested dollars doesn't hinge on the demand for a $75K car. If this result is purely about demand then that's a much better situation than a manufacturing/supply chain issue. There are a bunch of headwinds related to demand in the auto industry and Rivian's specific situation. Not saying it's great for them, obviously it would be good to have sales up as it may speak to other strengths in the company, but lack of demand in a $75K EV 3 row SUV and truck is likely not correlated to the demand of a $45K SUV the size of a Nissan Rogue.

It may all collapse but I'm not sure this is any indication of that outcome, unless something else comes out about the lack of demand and other issues within the organization.

The demand for 3 row luxury SUVs in the 3rd quarter were down double digits for a lot of automakers. The EV9 is an exception but the volume is still pretty low overall compared to Rivian.

 

[Zoidz]

One important perspective missing in this thread - how does Rivian's Q3 Performance compare to the rest of the industry? Answer - They are all down.

Oct 1 (Reuters) - Top U.S. automakers reported a fall in their third-quarter sales on Tuesday, hurt by fewer selling days and weaker consumer spending amid inflationary challenges and higher interest rates.

Carmakers have relied on crossovers and pickup trucks for years to drive the bulk of their sales, but that growth is starting to sputter as customers work with tighter budgets because of economic uncertainties.

General Motors (GM.N) reported a 2.2% fall in quarterly sales, as demand weakened for some of its big pickup trucks such as its best-selling Silverado.

Crosstown rival Ford (F.N) is expected to post weaker sales growth when it reports third-quarter sales on Wednesday, according to data from Cox Automotive.

Toyota reported an 8% fall in sales but said it had built extra inventory of vehicles and parts ahead of the U.S. port strikes, which began earlier in the day, to minimize disruption.

Industry experts expected automakers to rebound with stronger sales in the third quarter but discounts offered by companies were not enough to invigorate demand.

"Consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.

Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI)on Monday cut its 2024 profit forecast and warned it would burn more cash than expected due to weak global demand and competition from Chinese rivals offering cheaper cars.

 

[savethemanual]

One major piece of info we don't know yet is how much they will loose on each vehicle sold since the revamp of the lines, new supplier agreements and in-house motors. This will be telling when the numbers are eventually broken down for the quarter.

 

[Electron]

Read through all 6 pages and I would have multi quoted them all.

It's refreshing to see a group of folks who get it. Like many of you, I've been saying all along about how I was doubtful that Rivian would meet the numbers in Q4.

@SASSquatch said it best and I 100% agree. "...this spells weak demand that Rivian is trying dress up as supply shortage."

This is very much a weak demand problem with an over priced* EV trying to dance in a weak market, where the group of buyers willing to pay six figures has been saturated.

* As many have pointed out, poor quality issues, inferior tech to what Tesla offers, not enough service centers etc. Are all a recipe for a hard crash and leaving people holding the bag.

Factor in the economical and political climate, it's a crap time to be spending big money on a heavily depreciating asset. - Says the auto climate. Hard facts.

Rivian needs to offer heavy incentives, but now that they've played the "excuse card" (cheap move honestly), who knows what else they'll do now. - (Conveniently lowering the numbers at their will to offset the poor demand.)

The service center sucks in many cities and this will likely be a huge contributing factor to shying people away from committing to purchase.

With all that said, I 100% want Rivian to succeed, but I'm glad that I didn't cave to order a Gen 2 in Q3. Despite Rivian conveniently lowering the bar, back tracking on their projections as a way to cover up demand issuss; IF they are smart they'll be going heavy with incentives immediately.

What a hot mess. The reality within this camp/brand has surfaced, yet there still are those in heavy denial. Common.

People also need to realize that what I call the $5B VW sugar daddy money is NOT fully realized. I see so many using this as a crutch to justify some miraculous success, but it's not.

As exciting as the R2&R3 may be, if Rivian does nothing to address the existing issues (Piss poor service centers, Quality issues etc.) the models that are more important for the Brand than the R1x will just walk into fire, inheriting the existing issues it has now.

Please play your cards right Rivian.

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