R1T Dead Last in EV Pickup Sales

[mkhuffman]

The R1 platform has been positive at least once - then the economic environment changed (wonder how that happened.....)

I vaguely remember hearing that R2 should be gross profit upon launch, but I might also be making that up. That being said, RJ has sounded confident in many recent interviews that the vehicle will be in a good place financially, even at launch.

To clarify what I mean about cash flow positive:

The cost of all the parts + inventory handling + labor (including benefits of assembly workers and support personnel) + utilities needed to run the inventory and manufacturing operations + sales/distribution costs should be less than the selling price. Depreciation, interest expense, tax credits or payments (for example) are not what I mean. The production of the vehicle should add to their cash position, not decrease it.

I don't believe the R1 has done that yet although Gen2 was supposed to. If I am mistaken can you point me to the Rivian financial disclosure that shows the R1 is cash flow positive?

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[VandalSibs]

To clarify what I mean about cash flow positive:

The cost of all the parts + inventory handling + labor (including benefits of assembly workers and support personnel) + utilities needed to run the inventory and manufacturing operations + sales/distribution costs should be less than the selling price. Depreciation, interest expense, tax credits or payments (for example) are not what I mean. The production of the vehicle should add to their cash position, not decrease it.

I don't believe the R1 has done that yet although Gen2 was supposed to. If I am mistaken can you point me to the Rivian financial disclosure that shows the R1 is cash flow positive?

I may have misunderstood you - it's been Gross Profit positive, but not cash flow positive... Unless they are essentially the same?

 

[evguy]

I may have misunderstood you - it's been Gross Profit positive, but not cash flow positive... Unless they are essentially the same?

They had positive gross profit (revenues > expenses directly tied to vehicle production) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Hopefully they'll hit it again in Q3 2025. https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-first-quarter-2025-financial-results

Cash flow is a separate question. I believe cash flow has always been negative and may not be positive until Rivian achieves positive net income (revenues > ALL expenses, including marketing, R&D, etc.). They'll need R2 and R3 volume to reach positive net income, hopefully by 2030. Increased software licensing revenue to VW and others may help them get there sooner.

Edit: Apparently, it's possible to reach positive cash flow before you have positive net income, because accounting . . . https://www.dryrun.com/blog/positive-cash-flow-and-negative-net-income-understanding-the-paradox

 

[VandalSibs]

Edit: Apparently, it's possible to reach positive cash flow before you have positive net income, because accounting

So, the opposite of Hollywood Accounting in this case....

 

[mkg3]

Just to

They had positive gross profit (revenues > expenses directly tied to vehicle production) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Hopefully they'll hit it again in Q3 2025. https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-first-quarter-2025-financial-results

Just to clarify, the only reason Rivian was able to show positive gross profit in both quarters were due to regulatory credit (carbon offset sales). Without it, they would have shown negative gross profit, or loss for both.

As for Q3, it too will depends on how much credit they were able to sell, since EPA no longer is enforcing the rule.

The issue with Rivian is the fixed cost far outweighs the volume of vehicles they sell. Their fate depends on R2 success and nothing else at this point.

 

[evguy]

Just to


Just to clarify, the only reason Rivian was able to show positive gross profit in both quarters were due to regulatory credit (carbon offset sales). Without it, they would have shown negative gross profit, or loss for both.

As for Q3, it too will depends on how much credit they were able to sell, since EPA no longer is enforcing the rule.

The issue with Rivian is the fixed cost far outweighs the volume of vehicles they sell. Their fate depends on R2 success and nothing else at this point.

No doubt the phasing out of regulatory credits has made achieving gross profit more difficult going forward. R2 needs to do well to attract the additional investment likely needed to complete the GA plant and actually produce R3. If they hit those marks, they could reach positive net income by 2030, with a profit margin greater than that of a traditional automaker due to their vertical integration and the software licensing business. If they stumble, I could still see Rivian being acquired by a legacy automaker due to the brand value and software capability.

 

[DaveA]

Just to


Just to clarify, the only reason Rivian was able to show positive gross profit in both quarters were due to regulatory credit (carbon offset sales). Without it, they would have shown negative gross profit, or loss for both.

As for Q3, it too will depends on how much credit they were able to sell, since EPA no longer is enforcing the rule.

The issue with Rivian is the fixed cost far outweighs the volume of vehicles they sell. Their fate depends on R2 success and nothing else at this point.

and the ability to service their vehicles....3 weeks to get a service appointment in small Rivian market San Antonio is already not a good sign before R2 is on sale.

 

[savethemanual]

The issue with Rivian is the fixed cost far outweighs the volume of vehicles they sell. Their fate depends on R2 success and nothing else at this point.

Poor R2....has the weight of the world on it's shoulders

 

[ndmiller]

OMG who cares, can we close this thread it's just bickering at this point.

 

[Ceejay]

Given that that R1T belongs to a platform that includes the R1S, and AFAIK, the others don't really (aside from the Hummer), I include the R1S in the count, which from a linked article on the vans earlier in the thread, Cox Automotive placed at ~8,000 in Q3. That puts the platform at the top of that table.

For many similar reasons that people have listed in this thread, I had considered pick-ups before, but until the R1T came along, none of them met my diverse wants. There are oodles of people like me in my area of BC that would love something a bit cheaper, and I really think Rivian should do an R2T (the amount of Tacomas around here almost outnumbers full-size trucks). I view sales of the "T" variants as additive to the platform developed primarily as an SUV, and therefore the incremental development cost of a "T" variant for the R2 could be covered by the incremental revenue from selling an R2T. It wouldn't steal from the R2 "S", it would be additive!

Agreed.. coming from another BC owner who turns heads constantly in his R1T, including here in Northern Ontario on my current road trip. My truck will be a bit small and delicate for my firewood escapades, but the ability to fit bikes and surfboards and camping gear and tow my boat and have the capability for the local dirt roads etc etc but not be too massive for the grocery store parking lot hits the mark. I'm delighted to discover i have no regrets about getting this large pack vs a max pack that I initially considered. I have a few complaints, but overall I'm positive... but yes, a less fancy and lower priced R2T would get a lot of interest!!!

 

[Hauser37]

I love mine. 2026R1T is perfect for what I need in the mountains and snow in Montana yet for the other 3 seasons very practical. Also the sharpest looking truck out there IMO.

 

[mkhuffman]

OMG who cares, can we close this thread it's just bickering at this point.

Your comment is funny, but also not very useful. Seriously, Rivian owners care about the survival of the company they have invested in.

And when you buy a truck from Rivian, even if you don't own stock, you are dependent on their success. If they close down, what do we do with our trucks?

Anyway, your flippant comment made me laugh, but you really need to take a step back and think about what a failure of Rivian would mean to the many thousands of people who have purchased their trucks.

 

[mkhuffman]

I may have misunderstood you - it's been Gross Profit positive, but not cash flow positive... Unless they are essentially the same?

I think Gross Profit is basically what I was thinking about. You were right. Except I think costs like distribution and sales should be included. Those are needed to actually make money on what you are producing. Take out all the investment related costs. Do they create cash by producing and delivering the R1?

They had positive gross profit (revenues > expenses directly tied to vehicle production) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Hopefully they'll hit it again in Q3 2025. https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-first-quarter-2025-financial-results

Cash flow is a separate question. I believe cash flow has always been negative and may not be positive until Rivian achieves positive net income (revenues > ALL expenses, including marketing, R&D, etc.). They'll need R2 and R3 volume to reach positive net income, hopefully by 2030. Increased software licensing revenue to VW and others may help them get there sooner.

Edit: Apparently, it's possible to reach positive cash flow before you have positive net income, because accounting . . . https://www.dryrun.com/blog/positive-cash-flow-and-negative-net-income-understanding-the-paradox

Thank you so much for leading me to the water. This data demonstrates Rivian is able to generate cash by producing the R1, but the only quarter this has happened so far is Q4 2024. In Q1 2025 net cash provided by operations was a negative $188M.

They need their operations to produce cash. The recent news reports of layoffs, while sad for those impacted, are a positive sign Rivian is doing the right things to keep their business viable.

Actually this gives me confidence the R2 will allow them to turn the corner. The key question is: will the cash generated by the R2 be enough to stop them from digging the debt hole deeper?

 

[Zoidz]

OMG who cares, can we close this thread it's just bickering at this point.

Close it forever and you won't see it, see that button that says Ignore? No need to announce your exit from the thread.

 

[moosehead]

Imma just put this here:

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-150-lightning-ev-decision-89dc0d84?mod=hp_lead_pos1

First half of article copied below:

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Nov. 6, 2025 2:25 pm ET

Ford Motor executives are in active discussions about scrapping the electric version of its F-150 pickup, according to people familiar with the matter, which would make the money-losing truck America’s first major EV casualty.

The Lightning, once described by Ford as a modern Model T for its importance to the company, fell far short of expectations as American truck buyers skipped the electric version of the top-selling truck. Ford has racked up $13 billion in EV losses since 2023.

“The demand is just not there” for F-150 Lightning and other big electric pickups, said Adam Kraushaar, owner of Lester Glenn Auto Group in New Jersey. He sells Ford, GMC, Chevy and other brands. “We don’t order a lot of them because we don’t sell them.”

No final decision has yet been made, according to people familiar with the discussions, but such a move by Ford could be the beginning of the end for big EV trucks. Ram truck-maker Stellantis earlier this year called off plans to make an electric version of its full-size pickup.

General Motors executives have discussed discontinuing some electric trucks, according to people familiar with the matter. Sales of Tesla’s angular, stainless steel Cybertruck pickup tanked this year. And EV truck-maker Rivian has been cutting jobs to conserve cash.

Ford already paused production of the truck last month amid an aluminum shortage. The company is weighing whether to keep that plant idle as it shifts to smaller, more affordable EVs, the people say. The company said it would restart production “at the right time.”

In October, the first month since the end of the federal EV tax credit, Ford’s overall EV sales in the U.S. fell 24% from a year ago. Ford dealers sold 66,000 gas-powered F-Series pickups, up a tick from a year earlier, and just 1,500 Lightnings, the fewest of any model.

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