Anti-EV agenda

[jwanderson88]

This is an excerpt from an editorial by some generic commentator: Rivian’s rapid loss of thousands of would‑be customers did not come from a botched product launch or a viral quality scandal. It came from a policy cliff. When a key federal tax incentive vanished, a fragile demand story around premium electric trucks and SUVs was suddenly exposed, and the company’s delivery numbers show just how quickly that shock rippled through its order book.

As a sizable sample of Rivian buyers/owners, and EV buyers in general on this forum, does the end of the tax incentive spell the end of EV's? This is my experience: my Rivian didn't qualify because it wasn't "new". Previously I had a Volt and I got about half of the incentive because I just didn't make enough money. It seems like with the cancellation of the Ford Lightning and RAM electric, etc, the EV doom predictors are even more vocal. It's part of the anti-EV agenda. I even saw an article that compared the disappearance of electric vehicles when ICE vehicles became popular in the early 1900's to the current day, and predicted that EV's are going to go away again. Are EV's going to disappear? I've had three EV's (Volts count as EV's depending on how you drive) and I bought them because I like them.

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[Virtio]

There's no way EVs are going to disappear. We in the US are just way far behind in adoption. For example, in Norway over 95% of new car sales in 2025 were EV. There are a lot more headwinds here. Cheap (relatively) gas, lack of EV charging infrastructure, less choices, regulatory changes, etc. It's going to happen but it's going to take a lot longer than originally planned.

 

[Mr. Ham]

Eh. Not sure when, but we’ll be out of Dino juice at some point. Doomers like to doom whether it’s EV’s or something else.

 

[beatle]

I think it just changes the calculus for whether you should buy one or not. People buy vehicles for all sorts of reasons. The tax credit is just one thing, and if you're buying your second one (and it's not a lease) then the credit would have no bearing on your decision since you wouldn't qualify for it again. Other EV headwinds:

• Gasoline prices are lower than they have been in recent years, less incentive to switch to electric to save money on fuel cost.
• More hybrids are available that further reduce the day-to-day operating cost differences between gas and EV.
• Electricity prices as a whole are increasing, outpacing inflation.
• Many municipalities are now charging hundreds of additional dollars to register an EV vs. a gas vehicle, also reducing the TCO gap.
• Battery/powertrain warranty on mainstream EVs are now ending, and a lot of people realize just how expensive these components are to replace when they're not under warranty.
• Insurance costs for EVs are up due to their incredible repair prices (see above) and quick insurance adjuster judgement about component failure.
• Service times for EVs can be very long (not just Rivian)
• EV novelty may be wearing off. It is for me. I've driven an EV for over 6 years. It's still a great driving experience, but the actual thrill and uniqueness of ownership has subsided.
• EVs are largely unrepairable by end users. This makes them less attractive to people buying them out of warranty.
• Lack of 3rd party repair shops mean expensive trips to the dealer/service center are sometimes the only way to keep an EV on the road.

None of these are really silver bullets that can kill EVs, but just a few of them are enough to drive a potential buyer away. I will probably not buy another Rivian due to price, (lack of) repairability, and diminishing novelty, but I haven't personally written EVs off altogether. I am excited for smaller, more afforadable EVs like the Slate and Ford's newer small truck.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

I think it just changes the calculus for whether you should buy one or not. People buy vehicles for all sorts of reasons. The tax credit is just one thing, and if you're buying your second one (and it's not a lease) then the credit would have no bearing on your decision since you wouldn't qualify for it again. Other EV headwinds:

• Gasoline prices are lower than they have been in recent years, less incentive to switch to electric to save money on fuel cost.
• More hybrids are available that further reduce the day-to-day operating cost differences between gas and EV.
• Electricity prices as a whole are increasing, outpacing inflation.
• Many municipalities are now charging hundreds of additional dollars to register an EV vs. a gas vehicle, also reducing the TCO gap.
• Battery/powertrain warranty on mainstream EVs are now ending, and a lot of people realize just how expensive these components are to replace when they're not under warranty.
• Insurance costs for EVs are up due to their incredible repair prices (see above) and quick insurance adjuster judgement about component failure.
• Service times for EVs can be very long (not just Rivian)
• EV novelty may be wearing off. It is for me. I've driven an EV for over 6 years. It's still a great driving experience, but the actual thrill and uniqueness of ownership has subsided.
• EVs are largely unrepairable by end users. This makes them less attractive to people buying them out of warranty.
• Lack of 3rd party repair shops mean expensive trips to the dealer/service center are sometimes the only way to keep an EV on the road.

None of these are really silver bullets that can kill EVs, but just a few of them are enough to drive a potential buyer away. I will probably not buy another Rivian due to price, (lack of) repairability, and diminishing novelty, but I haven't personally written EVs off altogether. I am excited for smaller, more afforadable EVs like the Slate and Ford's newer small truck.

You nailed it. This is a solid, well-reasoned post that isn’t weighed down by the usual EV bias. I agree across the board. R1s aren’t struggling because of the $7,500 lease credit, they’re struggling for the reasons you outlined above and they cost a fortune.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

"Struggle". The R1 was never meant to be a volume seller. It's a halo product, doing what halo products do—launch a brand and build brand awareness. This isn't a Rivian exclusive. The original Acura NSX and Lexus LFA were both failures in context of sales. But they put both brands on the map. No one ever said, "oh shit, they're going to go bankrupt!" because of the two halo products.

Now if the mass market R2 and R3 sales "struggle", then that's when it's appropriate to sound the alarm.

 

[BigSkies]

Policy changes will impact the pace of adoption, and will create a ceiling on adoption.

These policy changes won't kill the market. It will kill individual automakers EV plans, but not the whole market.

Ford's new low-price EV platform is still coming to the US. GM has close to enough scale to keep their EV line alive.

Most importantly, the global EV market continues to grow quite rapidly. Any car company with scale operates globally. GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, etc know that they have to move REALLY fast on EV's to keep up with China in places like Brazil, Indonesia, Britain, EU, etc. The US may be the last to get the technology, but the development capital is still being deployed. It will just take longer for the technology to reach our backwater corner of the planet.

There's also the assumption that the current policy environment is permanent. Auto development cycles are longer than a presidential administration. My belief is that the next 50 years of US politics will be defined by both what is happening today, and the backlash to what is happening today.

While it's too early to say what that backlash will look like, it's not hard to believe the pendulum will swing in the opposite direction. Possibly extremely so.

 

[lefkonj]

Shows how stupid people really are. The EV tax credit didn't apply to vehicles over 80k. Was Rivian playing games with giving people 7500 off somehow, sure but it was not available for the tax credit, that is why Gen1 buyers were pissed when the list price went up, they lost the tax credit. To be honest if someone is buying a 100k vehicle the tax credit is a rounding error.

EVs aren't going anywhere. Will ICE vehicles disappear as quickly as some predicted, no.

 

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

Interestingly, on a local hometown Facebook post today about the city getting a couple EV trucks for fleet use through a grant, there are people from thousands of miles away coming to argue, hate, and spread FUD.

"Anti-EV agenda" is alive & well, fueled by the administration, people who are scared of change, and (probably a large percentage of) bots.

Some days I wish I'd just stayed off social media.

 

[ElGuano]

Ive been a participant in car groups for quite a while. And what strikes me about my EV ownership is:

1. Tesla folks tend to be way more sensitive about the ticker symbol and impacts there. It almost seems like the car forums are a proxy for an investor forum.

2. The Rivian communities tend to be a bit more defensive than I would have expected, particularly for an outdoorsy/adventure kind of vibe the company strives for.

I suspect part of this has to do with being in a premium vehicle category (how many people can really afford an $80-150k vehicle).

I guess my point is, I didn't see it as particularly "anti-EV." The $7,500 tax credit was a material incentive. Having it go away likely matters to a lot of potential buyers. Rivian's latest new vehicles were at the top end of the range (tri + quad motor), which are definitely more towards the lower volume, halo side than expanding the base. And the latest quarterly numbers definitely showed a sales slide; that's just a fact, and something we all have to face (if Rivian doesn't make, are we left in the same boat as Fisker? Hope not).

The car market is one of the toughest in the world. Being a new entrant is even tougher. There's going to be a lot of bad news on the road to success, and that road is far from guaranteed.

 

[DuoRivians]

Hard to say. The combination of:

- no more $7500 tax credit to get EVs to scale
- gas cheap
- China dominating EV supply chain and tech
- Europe becoming protectionist even against U.S. imports

may mean that there’s a much lower cap on Rivian’s market size.

It’s hard to say whether the cap is high enough to sustain Rivian long term.

I’ll just say that I’m no longer a RIVN shareholder, because I don’t think the risk/reward is favorable anymore. And I’ll only get another Rivian if they offer 800v, 350kw+ charging. I don’t care about level 3 self driving.

 

[skyguyscott]

I agree with pretty much everything posted so far, I would add:

The elimination of the $7500 incentive pulled 2nd Q sales forward, so a dramatic decrease in 3rd and 4th Q is was predicted and unsurprising; EV sales will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Projections based on reading the sudden recent decrease in sales is both flawed and premature.

I would also underscore the global competition in this space and how vital it will be for domestic manufactures to compete if they wish to stay in business; BYD in particular, currently barred from selling vehicles in the US, represents an existential threat to US automakers: a jaw-dropping, feature-rich, technologically sophisticated Lexus-quality BEV, far more efficient than anything else on the road at an estimated US price point of <$40K without incentives!

The long-term viability of Rivian and other EV makers, including the "Big 3" is still in question, but there is no doubt that within 30 years, most new vehicles will be electric.

Finally, the reality of carbon-trapping chemistry in the atmosphere remains a fact regardless of human denialism or belief. While the exact timing of when and the degree to which the climate will respond to changes in sea and atmospheric composition and temperatures is in flux, there is no confusion among scientists as to what happens given the chemistry. The public has been informed for over four decades, and the oil industry for a decade or two longer.

 

[savethemanual]

Shows how stupid people really are. The EV tax credit didn't apply to vehicles over 80k. Was Rivian playing games with giving people 7500 off somehow, sure but it was not available for the tax credit, that is why Gen1 buyers were pissed when the list price went up, they lost the tax credit. To be honest if someone is buying a 100k vehicle the tax credit is a rounding error.

EVs aren't going anywhere. Will ICE vehicles disappear as quickly as some predicted, no.

You do know, when leasing, the $80k vehicle price cap did not apply to qualify for the credit. All manufacturers took advantage of this loophole. Folks were getting the tax credit when leasing a $200k Porsche Taycan . The Fed should of closed that loophole but kept the regular rules of the credit in place...but they opted to shut down all the EV tax credits.

 

[VSG]

Insurance costs for EVs are up due to their incredible repair prices (see above) and quick insurance adjuster judgement about component failure.

Maybe I'm just yelling at clouds at this point, but PLEASE stop taking it as "fact" that EVs are more expensive to insure. And PLEASE stop repeating this talking point of the anti-EV crowd.

Like all "fake news", this has its roots in some anecdotal evidence that I'm not trying to dispute - sure people have seen ridiculous quotes and ridiculous rates for insuring Rivians. But that's not because they're EVs, that's because they were new, expensive vehicles and many insurers took a CYA attitude and jacked up the prices to ensure they wouldn't take a bath. If you received ridiculous quotes or are paying a ridiculous premium, now is the time to re-evaluate your insurance choices because your insurance company is taking advantage of you.

My experience, however, is an "exception" that proves the rule: My insurer (USAA, not a minor player) is charging me about 25% more for my 2022 R1T than I'm paying for my 2016 Honda Civic, a vehicle that (when new) cost less than half of my R1T, and a model that sells about 100x as many as the R1T, so there are plenty of parts and abundant documentation of repair costs.

If EVs were inherently more expensive to insure, then there is no scenario where this would be possible.

And while BOTH vehicles have seen dramatic price increases over the past 3 years (almost doubling), BOTH experienced EXACTLY THE SAME percentage increase. We have a law here in WA that allows consumers to request detailed explanations for any price increases, and in all cases that information shows that the rates were increased not because of my driving history (<1% of the increase) but because USAA applied for and received permission from the state to increase rates uniformly across the board. Insurers have taken a bath over the past 5-10 years because of natural disasters, inflation, increasing technology in vehicles etc., and the cost increases are needed to cover their loses.

So I reject the notion that EVs are inherently significantly more expensive to insure BECAUSE they are EVs. Any differential can almost certainly be attributed to the price of the vehicles, the level of technology, the relatively lower volumes of production, the limited repair history, profiteering on the part of the insurer, etc., not to some EV-specific risk factor.

 

[Hauser37]

Just wait until solid state batteries have ironed out the problems and ev sales will explode.

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